The stability of global energy markets is fundamental to effective energy strategy, influencing national policy and corporate investment decisions. Extreme volatility, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, exposes the limitations of conventional risk assessment tools and undermines strategic...

Forecasts that minimize mean squared forecast error (MSE) often exhibit excessive volatility, limiting their practical applicability. We address this accuracy smoothness trade-off by introducing a Multivariate Smooth Sign Accuracy (M-SSA) framework, which extracts smoothed components from...

Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of inflation for forecasting. SOC decomposes inflation into cyclical components,...

We introduce a simple yet powerful method for enhancing mutual fund performance prediction by combining individual predictors into a composite predictor. This composite approach integrates information from 19 well-established return-based and portfolio holdings-based predictors from the...

We study the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations. Leveraging granular FX trading data and forward looking expectations, we present three results. First, currency investors increase...

We test whether forecast bias affects individual investors' stock trading by combining bias measures from laboratory experiments with administrative trade data. Forecast bias is positively associated with past excess returns of purchased stocks: Compared to contrarians, extrapolators purchase...

Public support for policy interventions depends on citizens' beliefs about their likely ef-fects. We examine how individuals form such beliefs by studying their predictions of experimental outcomes in a policy-relevant setting, and why their predictions differ from expert benchmarks. We elicit...

Natural gas is a crucial element of energy supply in Great Britain (GB). The vast majority of GB gas consumption occurs in three main sectors: industry, Local Distribution Zone (residential, commercial, and services), and power generation. While there are strong seasonal patterns of demand...

The long-expected wave of LNG supply is now almost upon us, and is expected to outstrip the rise in demand for LNG. Spot prices, in European and Asian markets, may respond to the overhang of supply by moving to more short-run pricing – as was seen in 2019 and 2020 – and, as a result, prices...

This work highlights a previously overlooked factor that contributes to bias in private inflation forecasts-ignorance of confidential monetary rules. Additionally, it examines how this ignorance indirectly affects policy rate settings. The model proposed reconciles biases in two key forecast...

Austria's economy is recovering over the projection period from a recession that, according to the revised National Accounts, proved comparably severe to Germany's. The rebound is driven by private consumption, while foreign trade in goods continues to contract for the time being. Residential...

We provide a parsimonious setup for forecasting U.S. GDP growth and the unemployment rate based on a few fundamental drivers. This setup yields forecasts that are reasonably accurate compared with private-sector and Federal Reserve forecasts over the 1984-2019 and post-COVID-19 pandemic periods....

The rapid increase in global energy demand and the shift towards sustainable energy sources have highlighted the need for more efficient, transparent, and decentralized energy management systems. This study presents a novel blockchain-enabled marketplace designed to enhance energy trading and...

China has committed to peaking its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. Determining whether a CO2 emissions peak can be realistically achieved under the existing conditions of the economy and energy structure is an important issue for the regional governments...

A growth mindset-a belief that intelligence is malleable rather than a fixed trait-is a crucial factor for educational success. I investigate whether a growth mindset also plays a role in students' post-graduation life outcomes, specifically, in the pursuit of higher education in a nationwide...

This paper investigates the long-horizon predictive variance of an international bond strategy where a U.S. investor holds unhedged positions in constant-maturity long-term foreign bonds funded at domestic short-term interest rates. Using over two centuries of data from major economies, the...

Gemäss BFS stiegen die gesamten nominalen Gesundheitsausgaben im Jahr 2023 gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 2.4%. Das KOF berechnet für das Jahr 2024 ein deutlich höheres Wachstum von 4.8%, welches sich in den darauffolgenden Jahren mit 3.7% (2025), 3.6% (2026), und 3.5% (2027) langsam auf hohem...