We study international monetary policy spillovers and spillbacks in a tractable two-country Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. Relative to Representative Agent (RANK) models, our framework introduces a precautionary-savings channel, as households in both countries face uninsurable income...

Households' income heterogeneity is important to explain consumption dynamics in response to aggregate macro uncertainty: an increase in uncertainty generates a consumption drop that is stronger for income poorer households. At the same time, labor markets are strongly responsive to macro...

This study examines how early-life exposure to food scarcity influences individuals' long-term time preferences and savings behavior. To this end, we analyze hand-collected historical data on livestock availability during World War II at the provincial level, alongside detailed survey data on...

This paper studies the saving response of households to shocks in the capital position of their pension fund. Using survey panel data matched to supervisory data of Dutch occupational pension funds for a period that involved three major economic crises, we provide evidence of an increase in...

We consider a simple, two period, consumption-savings model with future income uncertainty that examines the interplay of savings, precautionary savings, loss aversion, and risk. We provide the relevant theory, followed by empirical tests based on subject-specific choices, and the measurement of...

Prudence is widely known for inducing precautionary saving behavior. This paper revisits this important implication by introducing the notions of first-order and second-order prudence. Within smooth expected utility (EU), prudence is second-order. In that case, the presence of a small,...

This paper uses an estimated Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model to evaluate the quantitative importance of two channels in driving aggre- gate consumption fluctuations in the US: (i) precautionary savings against un- employment risk and (ii) MPC heterogeneity. I find that MPC...

This paper empirically examines the behavioral precautionary saving hypothesis that uncertainty about future income triggers an increase in saving because of loss aversion. Guided by the theoretical model of Koszegi and Rabin (2009), we first extend their theoretical analysis to also consider...

This paper studies how household inequality shapes the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates on aggregate dynamics. To do so, we consider a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with an occasionally binding ZLB and solve for its fully nonlinear stochastic...

We consider a simple, two period, consumption-savings model with future income uncertainty that examines the interplay of savings, precautionary savings, loss aversion, and risk. We provide the relevant theory, followed by empirical tests based on subject-specific choices, and the measurement of...

Using detailed micro-data, this paper documents that households with lower income risk (and higher income levels) exhibit a higher Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) in response to transitory income shocks, all else being equal. This finding is particularly significant among unconstrained...

This paper investigates firms’ use of precautionary savings to manage the risk of distress spillovers from supply chain partners. Firms increase cash holdings when their principal customers have a larger fraction of long-term debt maturing in one year. Analysis exploiting predetermined...

This working paper was written by Refet S. Gürkaynak (Bilkent University, CEPR, CESifo and CFS), Sang Seok Lee (Bilkent University and CEPR), Paul Luk (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research) and Ju Hyun Pyun (Korea University Business School).We study the joint behaviour of...

In the Covid-19 crisis, most OECD countries have used short-time work (subsidized working time reductions) to preserve employment relationships. This paper studies whether short-time work can save jobs through stabilizing aggregate demand in recessions. First, we show that the consumption risk...

Our estimates indicate that 24% of net wealth is attributed to precautionary savings in Australia. Moreover, across the income distribution, we find that low-income households have the highest fraction of their wealth accumulation explained by precautionary motives. These results for Australia...

Our estimates indicate that 24% of net wealth is attributed to precautionary savings in Australia. Moreover, across the income distribution, we find that low-income households have the highest fraction of their wealth accumulation explained by precautionary motives. These results for Australia...

Empirical evidence shows that in a labor market characterized by a severe degree of informality, unemployment insurance (UI) has different effects that most of the literature, based on developed countries, address. First, UI takers are incentivized to work in the informal sector while collecting...

We study the spending response of first-time borrowers to an overdraft facility and elicit their preferences, beliefs, and motives through a FinTech application. Users increase their spending permanently, lower their savings rate, and reallocate spending from non-discretionary to discretionary...

This paper provides evidence that parents accumulate savings to insure their children against income risk. I refer to this behavior as dynastic precautionary saving and quantify its extent using matched parent-child pairs from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and exploiting variation in income...

For a firm that cannot raise external funds, cash on hand serves as precautionary saving. We derive a closed-form expression for the target level of cash on hand in the presence of persistent cash flows. Contrary to conventional wisdom, a mean-preserving increase in the volatility of cash flow...

The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk. In...

We consider both theoretically and empirically the effect of unemployment insurance (UI) on precautionary savings behavior. Simulations of a stochastic life cycle model suggest that increasing the generosity of UI will substantially lower the asset holdings of the median worker, and that this...

We propose a new method to test for efficient risk pooling that allows for intertemporal smoothing, non-homothetic consumption, and heterogeneous risk and time preferences. The method is composed of three steps. The first one allows for precautionary savings by the aggregate risk pooling group....

Firms that are more central invest more in equilibrium. Central firms are exposed to larger idiosyncratic shocks that propagate in the production network. Their incentive to engage in precautionary saving is larger, leading to larger investment. In the data, I find support for this prediction,...