This study examines whether receiving anticipatory cash transfers during an extreme winter affects households’ demand for index-based livestock insurance. We exploit a randomized field experiment conducted during the 2020/21 winter disaster in western Mongolia and combine household panel...

This report provides a comprehensive review of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) financing in India, with the aim of informing the deliberations of the Sixteenth Finance Commission (SFC). India's geographic and climatic diversity makes effective DRM financing critical to safeguarding communities,...

Nature-based solutions (NBS) can help countries facing complex climate-related challenges to address disaster risks while providing important socioeconomic benefits. This guide focuses on NBS for climate resilience and disaster risk reduction (DRR). As such, traditional conservation and...

The reconstruction of Princess Juliana International Airport (PJIA) in Sint Maarten represents one of the most comprehensive airport disaster recovery efforts in recent history. When Category 5 Hurricanes Irma and Maria devastated the terminal in September 2017, they threatened the economic...

Landslides claim more than 4,000 lives annually and lead to approximately US$20 billion in economic losses. However, landslide hazard, risk assessment, and early warning systems remain constrained by fragmented, inconsistent, and incomplete data. This study addresses the global data gap by...

This evaluation assesses the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) support to Tajikistan over 2015-2024. Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to disasters caused by natural hazards and to climate change due to its topography and limited adaptive capacity. GFDRR has approved 13...

This paper develops a tractable consumption-based asset-pricing model in an i.i.d. economy that combines rare consumption disasters with ambiguity aversion implemented as a one-period entropic tilt under CRRA utility. Closed-form expressions for the risk-free rate, equity return moments, and the...

Environmental challenges increasingly shape political discourses across Europe, yet their influence on actual environmental governance remains unclear. This paper examines the political economy mechanisms linking environmental change, party platforms, and the decentralisation of environmental...

Natural hazards are an increasing concern, placing disaster preparedness and mitigation at the forefront of policy agendas. In this context, Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) has allocated €3 billion for explicit disaster prevention, with a primary focus on hydrogeological risks...

This paper examines the short-term macroeconomic and sectoral effects of extreme weather events in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. We construct novel indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation based on percentile thresholds of long-run historical distributions and estimate their...

In the past two decades, about half of the new homes in the United States were built in areas at risk of natural hazards. Why is residential development exposed to such risk? I argue that regulated property-insurance pricing and land-use regulations contribute to this pattern. I study this...

This paper examines the role of insurance in mitigating the adverse macroeconomic effects of climate-related catastrophes. We first develop a stylised theoretical growth model which incorporates a role for natural catastrophes, climate change and insurance. This illustrates how insurance can...

Background: Natural disasters can trigger hazardous material (Hazmat) releases and damage valuable assets, increasing human, environmental, and economic losses. Effective predisaster relocation planning is therefore critical but operationally challenging. Methods: This study develops a...

This report presents a strong economic case for investing in disaster and emergency preparedness. Specifically, this report aims to help policymakers identify and prioritize the most urgent and cost-effective opportunities to bolster the country’s resilience, thereby improving preparedness not...

Over the past decades, about half of new U.S. homes were built in areas exposed to natural hazards. I argue that regulated property-insurance pricing and land-use constraints help explain this pattern. I study San Diego, where wildfire premiums are compressed by regulation and safer locations...

Background: The administration and management of humanitarian logistical operations are considered critical factors. The extreme and unexpected nature of events such as natural disasters poses logistical challenges to humanitarian support agencies providing aid to the affected area. These...

Do earthquakes strengthen social cohesion or undermine it? While some theories suggest they strengthen social bonds, others suggest they lead to social disintegration. We add to the limited causal evidence on this phenomenon using the 2012 Northern Italy earthquake, and exploit a unique dataset...

This paper presents a physics-based hazard model for catastrophe (CAT) modelling of urban flood risk-a first step toward a complete CAT modelling framework. We introduce a linear second-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) system to simulate the underlying mechanisms of water accumulation,...

We examine geographic spillovers in digital credit markets by studying how natural disasters affect borrowing behavior in adjacent, physically undamaged regions. Using granular loan-level data from Indonesia's largest FinTech lender (2021-2023) and leveraging quasi-random variation in disaster...

This paper examines the impact of natural disasters on fiscal and external sustainability across 134 economies from 1980 to 2023. We adopt a two-step approach: first, we estimate country-specific, time-varying sustainability coefficients; second, we assess their determinants using Weighted Least...

Sarah Gust führte diese Studie während ihrer Tätigkeit am ifo Institut durch. Die Studie wurde im September 2024 abgeschlossen und als Dissertation an der Volkswirtschaftlichen Fakultät der LMU München angenommen. Sie besteht aus drei eigenständigen empirischen Essays, die...

We study the electoral repercussions of the L'Aquila earthquake in 2009, one of Italy's most catastrophic post-WWII seismic events. We construct a unique municipality-level dataset, combining high-resolution data on the ground acceleration recorded during the earthquake with European election...

This study investigates the impact of rising risk of natural disasters on rule-based fiscal frameworks. It explores the extent to which countries adhere to their fiscal rules in the presence of rising risk of natural disasters. To ensure a consistent analysis, we construct an index measuring the...

We explore the effect of (big) shocks on the allocation of (bilateral) aid using natural disasters as natural experiments. We find that aid commitment statistically significantly increases following natural disasters, and that humanitarian aid precedes structural aid. While we find that the...