This study aims to develop an analytical framework for understanding the social and economic outcomes of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine by studying its impact on the labor market and migration, the economy and trade, social capital, and volunteering in Ukraine. The main economic and...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

Objective: In contrast to countries directly involved in military conflicts or terrorism, where the impact on tourism has been always reported negatively, the conclusions for neighbouring countries were not entirely unequivocal: they either suffered from the proximity of warfare or benefited...

Bellicose theories of state-building suggest that wars enable the emergence of strong states via the mechanism of increased war-time fiscal capacities. We explore the hitherto littleanalysed micro-level foundations of this claim. Does the experience of war increase public support for higher...

This paper examines the growth of military production in Russia since the onset of the war against Ukraine in February 2022. Utilizing official data from Rosstat, the study explores how military production is classified within Russian industrial output statistics. The analysis reveals...

Purpose - The research identifies the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the stock prices of six publicly traded European airlines and evaluates their ability to adapt to this situation. Research methodology - The dependence of the development of airline stock prices on the level of public and...

What are the dangers of states using criminal groups for national defense? This article evaluates this question in the context of Ukraine's response to the 2022 Russian invasion. It lays out what is currently known about Kyiv's use of criminal groups as part of its defense efforts, specifically...

The article examines the impact of war and war news in the mass media on the behaviour of tourists, based on a survey conducted in mid-2022 among a sample of 1036 respondents, citizens of a country close to the conflict in Ukraine. The tourism sector has suffered numerous crises triggered by...

Using novel longitudinal data, this paper studies the short- and medium-term effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 on social trust of adolescents in Germany. Comparing adolescents who responded to our survey shortly before the start of the war with those who responded...

This brief assesses the state of the Ukrainian economy two years since Russia's full-scale invasion. After a devastating 2022, Ukraine's economy in 2023 proved surprisingly resilient, thanks in part to its foreign partners. Decelerating inflation and a managed exchange rate provided...

We analyze the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the partial military mobilization, and the Wagner Group rebellion on a broad set of sentiments in the Russian population, using the exogenous timing of surveys from Gallup World Poll and the Levada Center. Our results show strong rally...

A sharp increase in fixed investment has been a key factor supporting Russia's economy in recent years. This brief highlights the drivers of Russia's recent investment boom. During 2022, the first year of the full-blown war in Ukraine, investment growth was dominated by increased budget...

As Ukraine must fight against an aggressor with an economy more than 10 times larger, its own resources have been far from sufficient to finance all its needs, which in turn has forced the country to rely on significant external financial support. Unfortunately, there have recently been...

Efficiency in stock markets is essential for economic stability and growth. This study investigates the efficiency and herding behavior of the stock markets from the top economies of the world (known as G20 countries). We classify stock market indices using MSCI classification for the developed...

This brief presents an overview of Ukraine's economy before and during the first ten months of the Russo-Ukraine war, as well as some preliminary considerations for the post-war economy. Although Ukraine's economic growth trailed many of its peers in the years leading up the invasion, the...

We assemble a data set of more than eight million German Twitter posts related to the war in Ukraine. Based on state-of-the-art methods of text analysis, we construct a daily index of uncertainty about the war as perceived by German Twitter. The approach also allows us to separate this index...

We assemble a data set of more that eight million German Twitter posts related to the war in Ukraine. Based on state-of-the-art methods of text analysis, we construct a daily index of uncertainty about the war as perceived by German Twitter. The approach also allows us to separate this index...

Entrepreneurs are often situated in extreme environments characterized by violent conflict. Yet, war is largely a blind spot in entrepreneurship scholarship. As a first step to closing this gap, we offer a well-identified synthetic control study of entrepreneurial dynamics in the Russo-Ukrainian...

Collecting public opinion data is challenging in the shadow of war. And yet accurate public opinion is crucial. Political elites rely on it and often attempt to influence it. Therefore, it is incumbent on researchers to provide independent and reliable wartime polls. However, surveying in...

What can be done to reduce the likelihood of future wars? While states’ decisions that bear on war are ultimately made by their political leaders, strengthening ordinary citizens’ control of those leaders is vital to reduce the risk of future wars. This thesis can be broken down into two...

The war in Ukraine affects the European Union (EU) member states asymmetrically. The purpose of the study is to determine changes in the development of the EU countries in three key directions: ‘economy and environment’, ‘business and trade’, and ‘people and work’; to identify...

We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

This Policy Brief examines the economic well-being of Russian households in the wake of warrelated sanctions, leveraging ten years of data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Building on macroeconomic indicators suggesting resilience, we analyze subjective wellbeing,...

This paper examines the growth of military production in Russia since the onset of the war against Ukraine in February 2022. Utilizing official data from Rosstat, the study explores how military production is classified within Russian industrial output statistics. The analysis reveals...

This report takes stock of international support for Ukraine. It is based on almost 3 years of data collection from the Ukraine Support Tracker, stretching from January 22nd, 2022 to December 31st, 2024. Over the past 3 years, Ukraine has received a low but steady inflow of foreign aid, with...

The war in Sudan, which broke out on 15 April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has triggered the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. Civilians are being directly attacked by the warring parties. The violent actors are destroying...

Armed conflicts were considered as potential catalysts for the modernisation of the tourism infrastructure. Under the conditions of comprehensive economic recovery, involving the implementation of innovations and the stimulation of both internal and external demand, growth in the sector could be...

We extend our previous work on bank lending around elections in Russia's electoral autocracy (Fungáécová et al., 2023) by considering the most recent data on bank lending and 2024 presidential election. Unlike the elections held between 2004 and 2019, our findings show no systematic evidence...

We experimentally study how economic prospects and power shifts affect the risk of conflict through a dynamic power rivalry game. Players decide whether to maintain the status quo or challenge a rival under declining, constant, or growing economic prospects. We find that conflict rates are...

We provide a selective overview of the literature on the linkages between interstate conflict and international trade, paying special attention to how trade openness (i) affects arming incentives, (ii) the channels through which its effects travel, and (iii) its consequences for the emergence of...

We consider a dynamic setting where two countries with competing claims to a resource/asset first arm and then choose whether to resolve their dispute through war or peacefully through settlement. War precludes international trade and can be destructive, but also locks gains and eliminates...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...