This brief presents an overview of Ukraine's economy before and during the first ten months of the Russo-Ukraine war, as well as some preliminary considerations for the post-war economy. Although Ukraine's economic growth trailed many of its peers in the years leading up the invasion, the...

Exploiting a natural experiment and an innovative survey design, we study the social and political legacies of armed conflict exposure (ACE) among Turkish conscripts. Our empirical framework identifies the causal impact and isolates the mediating pathways for the average male randomly picked...

Measuring the economic impact of a war is a daunting task. Common indicators like casualties, infrastructure damages, and gross domestic product effects provide useful benchmarks, but they fail to capture the complex welfare effects of wars. This paper proposes a new method to estimate the...

This paper explores the legacies of wartime rebel governance and counterinsurgency tactics. Insurgents rely on civilian support for resources, information, and cover. To defeat insurgents, the state attempts to extract information from communities where support for insurgents is highest. We...

What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new...

I examine whether and how the means through which a civil war ends affects the success of a country's state-building strategy after conflict. I show that two distinct modes of conflict termination-military victories and negotiated settlements-lead to differential long-run statebuilding outcomes...

With 70 million dead, World War II remains the most devastating conflict in history. Of the survivors, millions were displaced, returned maimed from the battlefield, or spent years in captivity. We examine the impact of such wartime experiences on labor market careers and show that they often...

While much of the literature studies causes and consequences of war, the reverberations of peace have rarely been studied. By focusing on the universe of ceasefire agreements since 1993, we study the causal effect of peace on economic recovery using a regression discontinuity in time approach....

Architecture and urban planning have always been deeply involved in the design and building of defense facilities because cities have been centers of economic, political and military power since the dawn of civilization. The famous Roman architect Vitruvius was himself a military engineer before...

Wartime sexual violence is widespread across conflict zones and thought to leave a disastrous legacy for survivors, communities, and nations. Yet, systematic studies on i) the prevalence and ii) the social and political consequences of wartime sexual violence are fraught with severe data...

To date, there is limited understanding about the consequences of wartime dynamics for post-war state-building processes. This paper explores one such dynamics-the forms of governance exercised by armed groups during wartime-and proposes a theoretical framework outlining how forms of wartime...

In der politischen Debatte um die richtige Reaktion des Westens auf den russischen Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine steht neben den bereits beschlossenen Sanktionen ein sofortiges Gasembargo als Mittel im Raum, um den wirtschaftspolitischen Druck auf Russland zu erhöhen. Hier ist insbesondere...

Die militärische Eskalation in der Ukraine sowie die aufgrund der Sanktionen einsetzenden Bremseffekte für die Kapital- und Handelsströme werden die deutsche Wirtschaft auf makroökonomischer Ebene belasten. In diesem Beitrag soll ein Überblick über die direkten Handelsrisiken gegeben...

Der Krieg in der Ukraine bringt erhebliche Belastungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft mit sich. Auf Basis der Konjunkturumfrage des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft können die verschiedenen Übertragungswege und Auswirkungen eingeschätzt werden. Fast 80% der Unternehmen sehen sich derzeit...

In 2019, over 96% of EU27 oil needs, nearly 90% of natural gas and over 43% of solid fuels were met by net imports, with the largest share coming from Russia (35% of oil, 40% of natural gas and 20% of solid fuels consumed in EU27). The decline in the share of oil since 2016 was more than off-set...

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused human suffering, the destruction of infrastructure and environmental damage on a huge scale. The Ukrainian government has already started to prepare for reconstruction, and presented its National Recovery Plan in July 2022. The plan has many strengths,...

This paper explores the political landscape of post-war Armenia, focusing on both domestic and foreign policy implications of the devastating war of 2020. More specifically, it aims at explaining the aftermath of the 2020 war, with a special emphasis on Armenia's growing dependence on Russia....

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war have caused and continue causing damages of devastating proportions. We analyse the impact on the Ukrainian labor market and propose a framework for its rebuilding. The Ukrainian labour market needs not only to be rebuilt - it needs to be...

This research project traces how women's participation in the Liberian civil wars, as combatants and peace agents, reconstructs gender relations in the post-civil war context. The current literature examines the role of women in the governance of rebel groups, emphasizing how women operate...

What accounts for armed violence in the aftermath of civil war? Efforts to develop a comprehensive framework to understand this phenomenon have been made in the literature. Yet existing studies have in general looked at distinct pre-war, wartime, and post-war sources of violence in the aftermath...

How do civil war dynamics affect state-building decisions in the aftermath of conflict? This paper argues that, in the post-conflict period, the state focuses its efforts to build state capacity on areas in which state power has been eroded during wartime, with the goal of avoiding future...

Does repression of opposition elites prevent resistance against foreign-imposed regimes? On the one hand, elimination of elites can undermine the opposition's capacity for antiregime resistance. Yet killing opposition elites deprives the new regime of useful human capital. Co-optation of elites...

The three-decade war in Sri Lanka left parts of the northern and eastern regions severely destroyed. Those regions are populated by minority and marginalized ethnic groups. The expectation is that aid flows to those regions to rebuild after the war as they need the aid more than other places....

The war affects the socio-economic state of Ukraine and is the cause of the deterioration of the economic situation of neighboring countries. Under such conditions, there is a need to carry out assessments of economic losses from the conduct of military operations and forecast the main economic...

As of summer 2022, the war in Ukraine has lasted more than three months, caused the deaths of thousands of people, and ruined the lives of millions. It has impacted the world economy and affected Ukraine severely, ruining industries as well as causing massive migration, a decrease in household...

Only a little more than six months after the iconic photo of the last US helicopter pulling out of Kabul was taken, Russia invaded Ukraine. This came hot on the heels of an accord between China and Russia that recognized each other’s respective “interests” in Taiwan and (implicitly)...

While geopolitical tensions with Russia had already curtailed Ukraine's access to markets, the escalation to an invasion of Ukraine by Russia and full-blown war on February 24 has dramatically altered Ukraine's outlook. A deep recession and large reconstruction costs are to be expected, on the...