The European Union Emissions Trading System is set to substantially increase the effective carbon price faced by airlines. To quantify the impact of this carbon regulation on the European airline industry, we estimate a two-stage model of airline competition with endogenous route entry, flight...

We leverage decades of administrative data and quasi-experimental variation in the introduction of universal long-term care (LTC) insurance in Germany in 1995 to examine whether health insurance expansions can stimulate local economies. We find that the LTC insurance rollout led not only to...

Empirical models of trade agreements implicitly assume that withdrawal from a trade agreement has an equal and opposite trade effect as accession, i.e., symmetry. With increasing opposition to international economic cooperation, it becomes urgent to test this assumption. We analyze a...

We study the interaction between unemployment insurance (UI) and other social transfers exploiting state-level changes to UI generosity and data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (1990-2013). We find that more generous UI leads to a reduction in the receipt of other public...

This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model designed to examine the macroeconomic effects and welfare implications of alternative reforms to the US health insurance system. Specifically, it scrutinizes the extent to which health care reform can mitigate inefficiencies stemming from...

Prior studies assessing welfare across countries have utilised measures that combine country-level outcomes in income and life expectancy. However, this perspective remains blind to the fact that two countries may have the same life expectancy and/or average income but very different underlying...

This paper presents a dataset and an analytical framework to study the welfare effects of tariff changes on women. The data is an extension of the Household Impacts of Tariffs (HIT) dataset, which contains harmonized household survey data for 54 low and lower middle-income countries. It includes...

ndustrial policy has returned to the centre of economic governance, particularly in the high-tech sectors where positive network externalities in demand make market dominance self-reinforcing. This paper studies the welfare effects of an industrial policy targeting a sector with network...

We consider five models of international trade that belong to the class of models in which the trade elasticity and domestic trade share are sufficient statistics for the welfare cost of autarky. Three are fixed-variety models featuring increasing micro-level margins of adjustment: versions of...

Population aging in middle-income economies produces macroeconomic and distributional consequences that aggregate frameworks cannot detect. This paper develops a multi-household CGE model calibrated to a 26-sector Social Accounting Matrix for Thailand (2024) and traces the labor, saving, and...

I examine whether trade can improve the impact of population growth on natural resources (NR) and welfare over time. Under autarky, population growth results in NR and welfare collapse over time, irrespective of the value of the returns to scale in the manufacturing sector, ϕ. Under trade, NR...

This paper leverages Sri Lanka's 2021 chemical fertilizer import ban to quantify the costs of restricted fertilizer access for agriculture, trade, and welfare. Leveraging trade and production data, satellite-based yield estimates, and event studies, we document sharp declines in fertilizer...

The current report presents findings of a research project that explored attitudes towards welfare and redistributive policies among Irish residents. Public support for the welfare state is an important foundation for democratic governments to pursue the policies needed to alleviate poverty in...

This paper studies self-preferencing in search results and how it affects quality competition in the U.S. Apple App Store. Leveraging a search algorithm change, I find that rankings significantly affect app demand and developers’ quality provision. To examine the welfare effects of...

Transaction-level quantity discounts are a pervasive feature of US trade, shaping both price variation and tariff incidence. Using administrative microdata, we show that these discounts reflect transaction-level scale economies rather than market power. Accounting for these micro-level economies...

This paper examines the welfare implications of job retention schemes, where governments subsidize employers to preserve jobs during downturns. Using EU microdata from 2003 to 2018, we show that such schemes are associated with lower job separation rates, especially among lower-productivity...

We consider welfare impacts of prohibitive tariffs on trading partners. Initially, there is prohibitive tariff by one country and a zero tariff by its trading partner. Thereafter, the trading partner also resorts to prohibitive tariff. We demonstrate how prohibitive tariffs by the trading...

We study whether the number of tiers in a traffic-light eco-label affects consumer welfare. We develop a model in which consumers observe price, quality, and the label tier, but infer a product's environmental quality ("greenness") imperfectly. In that setting, adding a tier can improve the...

We investigate the effect of trade liberalization in a stagnant economy characterized by firm-level productivity heterogeneity. By incorporating Melitz's (2003) framework into a model of economic stagnation driven by insufficient aggregate demand, we examine how trade opening affects employment...

We provide firm-level evidence on expected tax burdens under the OECD's Pillar Two minimum tax using hand-collected financial statement disclosures from listed multinational groups headquartered in countries where Pillar Two has already taken effect. Our setting exploits a common reporting...

This paper studies the fiscal costs of unemployment insurance (UI). It surveys alternative methods used in the literature to estimate the impact of UI on government budgets and compares them within a unified framework that incorporates behavioral responses, wage effects, and fiscal...

How costly is the misallocation of production that we might expect to result from distortions such as market power, incomplete contracts, taxes, regulations, or corruption? This paper develops new tools for the study of misallocation that place minimal assumptions on firms' underlying...