[enter Abstract Body]This paper shows a new methodology to observe mathematically and graphically the vulnerability of the world economy in case of a pandemic (COVID-19) or war (Russian-Ukraine War). The main objective of this research is to evaluate the economic damage levels generated from war...

Which region(s) will come to dominate the world economy? This paper develops the Global Gaidar Model (GGM), a 17-region, 2-skills, 100-period OLG model, to address this and other questions. The model is carefully calibrated to 2017 UN demographic and IMF fiscal data. Productivity growth and its...

Global warming is a worldwide and protracted phenomenon with heterogeneous local economic effects. In order to evaluate the aggregate and local economic consequences of higher temperatures, we propose a dynamic economic assessment model of the world economy with high spatial resolution. Our...

Global warming is a worldwide and protracted phenomenon with heterogeneous local economic effects. In order to evaluate the aggregate and local economic consequences of higher temperatures, we propose a dynamic economic assessment model of the world economy with high spatial resolution. Our...

This paper adds international migration and remittances into the IMF's Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM). FSGM is a global general equilibrium model with endogenous primary commodity markets. A method to estimate the structural dynamics of major remitter regions is proposed. The dynamics...

This paper adds international migration and remittances into the IMF's Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM). FSGM is a global general equilibrium model with endogenous primary commodity markets. A method to estimate the structural dynamics of major remitter regions is proposed. The dynamics...

We examine whether knowledge of in-sample co-movement across countries can be used in a more systematic way to improve forecast accuracy at the national level. In particular, we ask if a model with common international business cycle factors adds marginal predictive power compared to a domestic...

This paper develops the seminal ideas of Nicholas Kaldor into a Centre-Periphery framework of the world economy where the Centre faces the problem of surplus capacity and effective demand and the Periphery faces a capacity constraint. In such a framework, Harrod-type 'foreign trade multiplier'...

A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. We examine whether knowledge of in-sample co-movement across countries could...

This paper analyzes the potential welfare gains of introducing a technology transfer from Annex I to non-Annex I in order to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on a numerical general equilibrium model for a world economy comprising two regions, North (Annex I) and South...

The paper describes revisions to the trend employment component of the production function underpinning long-term economic scenarios. Starting with historical age and sex-specific employment rates, a novel approach is developed to correct for cyclical effects using the country-level employment...

We examine the relative benefits of policy aimed at mitigating GHG emissions in Canada and globally. We find that while a carbon tax that holds the stock of global emissions below the 550 ppm level would yield positive net benefits for the world economy, the impact of such a tax on the Canadian...

We examine the relative benefits of policy aimed at mitigating GHG emissions in Canada and globally. We find that while a carbon tax that holds the stock of global emissions below the 550 ppm level would yield positive net benefits for the world economy, the impact of such a tax on the Canadian...

The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of...

The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of...

To assess the importance of economic interdependence and the potential gains from policy coordination in the European area, this paper analyzes the international transmission of policies and disturbances in a rational expectation dynamic general equilibrium simulation model of the work economy,...

The paper constructs a global monetary aggregate, namely the sum of the key monetary aggregates of the G5 economies (US, Euro area, Japan, UK, and Canada), and analyses its indicator properties for global output and inflation. Using a structural VAR approach we find that after a monetary policy...

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically whether economic freedom affects entrepreneurial activity in three groups of countries, classified according to economic development. Design/methodology/approach: Data on the index of entrepreneurial activity cover the period between...

A partial equilibrium four-region world trade model for the soybean complex is developed in which Roundup Ready (RR) products are weakly inferior substitutes to conventional ones, RR seeds are priced at a premium, and costly segregation is necessary to separate conventional and biotech products....

This paper provides a temporal stochastic framework that is used to analyze economic transitions of countries in the world-system. As such, it provides a contribution to a general quantitative rendering of the world-systems perspective. State space modeling using Markov chains provides a...

Over the past two years, the IMF staff has been developing a new multicountry macroeconomic model called the Global Economy Model (GEM). This paper explains why such a model is needed, how GEM differs from its predecessor model, and how the new features of the model can improve the IMF’s...

Using a general-equilibrium model of world trade, this paper evaluates the benefits of most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment to developing countries in multilateral relative to bilateral or regional trade agreements, from three sources. First, developing countries may be able to free-ride on...