We study the social and distributional implications of the euro area (EA) sovereign debt crisis in countries that received external financial assistance for macroeconomic adjustments. Combining granular data from about one million survey interviews with households across euro area states carried...

This paper presents a novel approach to prognosing European economic crises through the development of an economic-financial risk sensitivity model. The model integrates key macroeconomic indicators such as government deficit (NETGDP), GINI coefficient, social protection expenditure (ExSocP),...

In this paper, I extend the Hein and Stockhammer model of distribution and inflation by incorporating structural trends of financialization through three Kaleckian channels: (1) sectoral recomposition, (2) financial overhead costs and rentiers' profit claims, and (3) the bargaining power of...

Uncertainty affects people in various ways. It is frequently found to hinder investment and production in the economic sphere. In this study, we examine the empirical relationship between uncertainty and tolerance toward Muslims and Jews. Does uncertainty make people more or less tolerant? This...

During the 2008 Great Recession, the adoption of counter-cyclical economic policies made the Brazilian economy more resilient. However, a noteworthy shift occurred in 2014, marked by a deterioration in Brazil's macroeconomic landscape, primarily driven by a worsening debt situation....

Some studies have provided empirical evidence that firms' high growth rates just before economic crises are negatively associated with resilience. Other authors have observed that firms that grow fast in the early phases of an external crisis are generally more resilient. This countercyclical...

We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations using Germany as a laboratory. Households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today, even after controlling for known determinants of historical...

The employment structure in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) differs markedly from that in advanced economies, which has implications for adjustment to cyclical conditions. This paper examines the cyclicality of employment in advanced economies and EMDEs. Although EMDEs exhibit...

The Korean shipping industry, which underwent consolidation of shipping companies in the 1980s, continued to grow with the recovery of the global economy from the late 1980s to the first half of the 1990s. The civilian government that came to power after 30 years of military rule gradually...

What can we learn from the high-frequency responses in bond and currency markets to the recent tariff announcement about the status of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency? The dollar depreciated by 6.5% after April 1 in spite of rising U.S. interest rates and market volatility, which...

We investigate the diffusion of frontier technologies across German firms before and during the Covid-19 crisis. Our analysis tracks the nature, timing, and pandemic-related motivations behind technology investments, using tailor-made longitudinal survey data linked to administrative...

Many observers see the Covid-19 crisis as marking a major shift in neoliberal globalization. We analyze this question from the perspective of South Africa. We argue that the 2020 crisis has not precipitated a major shift as much as it has rapidly accelerated trends which were already under way...

Western media and academia have heralded the China collapse narrative. This paper provides a critical and balanced examination of the four challenges facing the Chinese economy - namely, deflation, debt, demographics, and de-coupling/de-risking. It argues that while deflationary pressure is...

Ukraine's post-conflict economy needs new opportunities to grow because it has not been able to rebuild itself economically. As we live in an era of globalization, it is crucial that national economies - especially Ukraine's - meet the demands of the international community. With its...

Wie bereits das Jahr 2022 war auch das Jahr 2023 durch die Mehrfachkrise geprägt. Die Inflation war weiterhin hoch bei gleichzeitig geringem Wirtschaftswachstum. Trotz dynamischer Lohnentwicklung gab es weitere Reallohnrückgänge in ganz Europa. Im Euroraum und der Europäischen Union stiegen...

The German economy has been suffering from multiple crises in recent years. This is regularly reflected in the outcome of leading economic indicators, such as the monthly "IMK Konjunkturindikator". Structural developments are difficult to identify in such an environment. However, the German...

This study analyzes the mechanisms by which short-time work (STW) schemes affect firm's employment adjustments, using establishment-level data during the Great Recession from Japan. The findings show that STW leads to a decrease in both hiring and separations, with no significant positive effect...

The European Crisis Management Laboratory (ECML) does research and development in support of EU crisis preparedness and response policy. It fosters the use of science in situational awareness, adding value to the routine context analysis and operational activities of the EU's Emergency Response...

This study investigates how crises affect firms’ adoption of frontier technologies using the Covid-19 pandemic as a case study. The analysis tracks the nature, timing, and pandemic-related motivations of investments among German firms, using longitudinal survey data linked with administrative...