Search Results - subject_exact:"Wirtschaftspotential"

The survey-based output gap and input gap

Kamada, Koichiro - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616966

A simple method for estimating multiple natural rates simultaneously : estimation of Japan's potential output and natural foreign exchange rate

Kamada, Koichiro - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616967

Monetary policy and the output gap in DSGE models for small open economies : insights from the Czech Republic

Šestořád, Tomáš; Vlček, Jan; Musil, Karel - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610401

Output gap assessment through Danmarks Nationalbank's production function framework

Bess, Mikkel; Bock, Theodor Justus; Weissert, … - 2026

The output gap is a key guide for economic policymaking and analysis. It is often used to quantify inflationary pressures and thus plays a central role in Danmarks Nationalbank's assessment of the state of the Danish economy. This paper refines Danmarks Nationalbank's existing production...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015588366

PFR Fundamentals : Estimating Potential Fiscal Savings

Herrera, Santiago; Isaka, Hironobu - 2026

This Note describes methods for estimating potential fiscal savings across five spending categories—the wage bill, pension payments, capital spending, purchases of goods and services, and social protection spending. The primary methodology compares a country’s spending levels to specific...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628247

Potential output in Canada : 2026 assessment

Chernoff, Alex; Hajzler, Christopher; Houle, Stéphanie; … - 2026 - Last updated: May 25, 2026

Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027-29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647201

Assessing global potential output growth : April 2026

De Munnik, Daniel; Hess, Kristina; Muiruri, Walter; … - 2026 - Last updated: May 25, 2026

We present the annual update of the Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth. Growth in global potential output is expected to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon at just above 3%, underpinned by the general strength in trend productivity growth, including...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647202

Estimación del crecimiento potencial de la economía española : una revisión metodológica

Domínguez Díaz, Rubén; García-Rodríguez, Marta; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672521

Monetary determinants of house prices in the European countries

Shevchuk, Viktor; Kopych, Roman - 2026

Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate monetary policy effects on the house prices for the panel of 12 Central and Eastern European (CEE-12) countries, 12 small European countries (EU-12) and 5 largest European countries plus the UK (EU-6). Research Design & Methods: A...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061886

Finance, asset prices, and the business cycle : evidence on the reliability of real-time output gap estimates

Schmied, Dominik - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016083092

Output gap measurement after COVID for Colombia : lessons from a permanent-transitory approach

Granados, Camilo; Parra-Amado, Daniel - 2026

We estimate the output gap for the Colombian economy explicitly accounting for the COVID-19 period. Our estimates reveal a significant 20% decline in the output gap but with a faster recovery compared to previous crises. Our empirical strategy follows a two-stage Bayesian vector autoregressive...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016082422

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Output gap measurement after Covid for Colombia: lessons from a permanent-transitory approach

Granados, Camilo; Parra-Amado, Daniel - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Vidnovlennja ta rozvytok naukovo-innovacijnoho potencialu Ukrai͏̈ny u povojennyj period : monohrafija

Egorov, I. Ju.; Egorov, I. Ju.; Bažal, Jurij N.; … - 2026 - Naukove elektronne mereževe vydannja

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016062495

Assessing the impact of demographic composition on productivity

Guénette, Justin-Damien; Shao, Lin - 2025

We examine how demographic factors influence potential output, focusing on how the age distribution of the working-age population and the old-age dependency ratio affect aggregate productivity. Following Feyrer (2007), we emphasize that the contribution to aggregate productivity varies by age...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323684

A robust method to date recessions and compute output gaps : the Portuguese case

Assunção, João; Fernandes, Pedro Afonso - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015332506

Generische Tourenpläne

Mumm, Harald - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015326928

Indirect inference for the identification of star variables in macroeconomic models

Minford, Patrick; Xu, Yongdeng - 2025

Star variables, such as potential output and the neutral real interest rate, are fundamental to economic policymaking but challenging to identify due to their latent nature. Buncic, Pagan, and Robinson (2023) highlight the difficulty of identifying star variables within short macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329658

Integrating the social reproduction of labor into macroeconomic theory : unpaid caregiving and productivity in paid production

Setterfield, Mark - 2025

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the integration of unpaid caregiving in the household into short- and long-term macroeconomic theory and, in particular, the theoretical structure of production on the supply side of the economy. The ambition of the project is to furnish a general...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015417783

Estimating potential non-oil GDP in Azerbaijan

Yusibov, Avaz; Yusifzada, Tural; Ahmadov, Vugar - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015467234

Potential output pessimism and austerity in the European Union

Kuang, Pei; Mitra, Kaushik - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015471285

Synchronization and similarity between regional and sectoral output gaps in the Polish manufacturing industry

Błażej, Mirosław; Górajski, Mariusz; Ulrichs, Magdalena - 2025

The notion of the output gap is crucial in understanding underlying economic trends. The macroeconomic stabilization policy can only be effective for all sectors or regions of the economy if regional or sectoral output gaps are sufficiently coherent. This study proposes a new microeconometric...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015447269

The effects of climate change on a small and open economy : economic and monetary perspectives

Bejarano, Jesús Antonio; Rodriguez-Novoa, Daniela - 2025

This policy note analyses the impacts of climate change on a small and open economy, emphasizing its effect on monetary policy. We use a New-Keynesian model to evaluate short- and long-term effects of transition climate change shocks - a permanent and anticipated shock to total factor...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015449295

Estimating Potential Output in Niger : Niger

Amouzou Agbe, Guy Morel Kossivi - 2025

Potential growth in Niger is estimated at around 6 percent with a structurally significant contribution of labor and peaks of growth associated with higher investment in physical capital. Growth in Niger is, however, constrained by weak productivity, limited structural transformation, and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452014

Assessing Climate Change Risks : Potential Output Losses and Gains from Strengthening Resilience, Bahamas

Aligishiev, Zamid - 2025

The Bahamas is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including gradual sea level rise, biodiversity loss, and intensifying hurricanes. Together, these challenges threaten to undermine the country's potential output over the long term by inflicting damages to physical assets and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452050

Potential Output in the Kyrgyz Republic : Kyrgyz Republic

Rao, Nasir - 2025

This paper revisits the potential output of the Kyrgyz Republic considering recent structural shifts and external shocks, including the pandemic and the regional conflict. Utilizing a suite of methodologies - production function, state-space models, and statistical filters - it estimates...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452163

Monetary policy during negative output gap periods in India in the first quarter of the 21st century

Mundle, Sudipto; Mehta, Madhur - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015459569

Assessing the ability of output gap estimates to forecast inflation in emerging countries

Ndzama, Nwabisa Florence - 2025

We find that, while different models used to estimate the output gap in five major emerging economies show similar trends over time, they lead to different conclusions about how well the output gap can predict inflation. This suggests that the choice of model can significantly impact the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015443298

The economic footprint of natural disasters: demand-side or supply-side forces?

Pozo, Jorge; Rojas, Youel - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015568009

Potential Growth and Migration : Republic of Lithuania

Boer, Lukas - 2025

Recent immigrants have been successfully absorbed into the Lithuanian labor market and legislative amendments have enabled easier migration for high-skilled workers despite the reduction of non-EU workers quota in 2025. The analysis in this note shows immigration can play a role in mitigating...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612950

Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean

Amundsen, Alexander - 2025

Medium-term growth prospects of Caribbean countries have weakened in recent years. We examine these trends by providing new estimates of potential GDP growth for the region. Our findings reveal a broad-based decline over time, driven by declining contributions from human capital and total factor...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613291

A business conditions real-time measure of output gap deviations

Ilek, Alex; Mazar, Yuval - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592998

Trend-cycle decomposition in the presence of large shocks

Kamber, Güneş; Morley, James C.; Wong, Benjamin - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015556557

Will the new European fiscal rules raise the debt-to-GDP ratio? : an analysis of the Italian case

Ciccone, Claudia - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015557480

Decomposing the output gap : robust univariate and multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filtering with extreme observations

Hungnes, Håvard - 2025

This paper introduces two methodological improvements to the Hodrick- Prescott (HP) filter for decomposing GDP into trend and cycle components. First, we propose a robust univariate filter that accounts for extreme observations - such as the COVID-19 pandemic - by treating them as additive...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015557748

Output gap measurement : a production function approach

Rehman, Muhammad; Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder; Hussain, Fayyaz - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015519573

The output gap in the Danish economy : calculation and assessment

Bess, Mikkel; Bock, Theodor Justus; Larsen, Rasmus Bisgaard - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015519783

From Okun's Law to fiscal multipliers in France and Italy

Creel, Jérôme; Kaiser, Jonas - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016062750

Show one more version 1

From Okun's law to fiscal multipliers in France and Italy

Creel, Jérôme; Kaiser, Jonas - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Macroeconomic implications of demographic changes in Bulgaria

Ivanov, Ventsislav; Cvetkova, Desislava; Vassilev, Andrey - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668540

A Markov-Switching DSGE model for measuring the output gap in Brazil

Oliveira, Eleonora de; Palma, Andreza Aparecida; … - 2024

The output gap, while inherently unobservable, plays a pivotal role in informing policymakers due to its significant implications for forecasting inflation rates and understanding the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission. Traditional filters frequently employed in estimating the output gap...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015055077

An aggregation-consistent implementation of the Hamilton filter

Cozzi, Marco - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014566015

Estimating time-varying potential output and NAIRU using a multivariate filter for Türkiye

Gökcü, Mert - 2024

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach for estimating potential output and NAIRU developed for Türkiye by integrating the capacity utilization block into the model. The model gives more negative estimates of the output gap and smaller estimates of NAIRU in recession periods...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014574478

Realtime reliable output gap estimates based on a forecast augmented Hodrick-Prescott filter

Porcellotti, Giacomo - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014576791

Testing the waters of positive hysteresis : the effects of autonomous demand shocks on inflation, accumulation, and labor in the US economy

Di Domenico, Lorenzo; Gahn, Santiago José; Romaniello, … - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014547037

The macroeconomic impact of structural reforms : the case of Italy

D'Andrea, Sara; D'Andrea, Silvia; Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015443155

Show one more version 1

The macroeconomic impact of structural reforms : the case of Italy

D'Andrea, Sara; D'Andrea, Silvia; Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Is there hysteresis in potential output estimates?

Roa Rozo, Julián - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015065953

Nowcasting the output gap with shadow rates

Dubbert, Tore; Kempa, Bernd - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015071841

Mind the output gap : the new technocratic politics of EU fiscal rules in Italy

Locatelli, Camilla - 2024

The sovereign debt crisis triggered a process of reforms in European economic governance that pushed for technocratic handling of budget decisions following standardized procedures, target measures, and indicators for fiscal monitoring. This shift, aimed at producing more stability and less...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015081045

Assessing potential output and the output gap in Australia

Bishop, James; Hua, Jessica; Omidi, Shayan; Zhou, Xuan; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015083608

The impact of climate, socio-political and COVID-19 shocks on Tunisia's potential growth

Dridi, Kamel - 2024

This study estimated Tunisia's potential growth with a Cobb-Douglas production function using an unobservable component model within structural changes context for the period 1989-2023. It investigated the major shocks' effects on the potential growth and its components. In contrast with most...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015073301

Demographic aging and long-run economic growth in Germany

Ochsner, Christian; Other, Lars; Thiel, Esther; Zuber, … - 2024

We study the long-run interaction between Germany’s economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a comprehensive dataset, we leverage the classical production function approach to estimate potential output growth between 1970 and 2070. We account for the inherent uncertainty in our...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014482654

Wege aus der Wachstumsschwäche : Analysen Wachstumspotenzial

Grimm, Veronika; Kroeger, Thilo; Ochsner, Christian - 2024

Deutschland erlebt derzeit einen erheblichen Rückgang seines Produktionspotenzials. Wesentliche Ursache ist die demografische Alterung und insbesondere der Eintritt der geburtenstarken Jahrgänge (Baby-Boomer) in den Ruhestand. Das verfügbare Arbeitsvolumen wird darüber hinaus durch niedrige...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014511829