The purpose of this study is to assess, from a Balance of Payment Constraint Growth (BPCG) theoretical perspective, current key challenges of developing countries that spring from two broad exogenous factors. These factors are: i) global shocks that affect the world economy, and ii) major...

This paper reviews the main developments in U.S. trade and the balance of payments from the first years of the 19th century to the first decade of the 20th. American export trade was dominated by agricultural and other resource products long after the majority of the labor force had shifted out...

An econometric portfolio balance model of an open economy, incorporating exchange rate, price, and current account dynamics, is derived and estimated.The usual stability conditions do not guarantee a unique rational expectations solution, and several proposals for resolving this situation are...

The growth in TARGET balances after 2009 has given rise to intense academic and public debate. Our paper offers a systematic exposition of the necessary conditions for TARGET balances to emerge and provides a clear link to monetary policy. We show that large TARGET balances can only arise with...

This study aims at examining the extent to which the exchange rate impacts on balance of payments in Algeria (BoP) during the period 1980-2019, using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM). This approach tests the presence of a long-run relationship...

We examine whether the Chinese exchange rate is misaligned and how Chinese trade flows respond to the exchange rate and to economic activity. We find, first, that the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), is substantially below the value predicted by estimates based upon a cross-country sample,...

As elsewhere, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to tragic loss of life and triggered a major economic downturn in Indonesia. The authorities have responded with a bold and comprehensive policy package that has successfully maintained economic and financial stability. With the recovery underway, they...

We present a simple model of internal and external balance that incorporates the key features of resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). The main result is that "government take", which is the ratio of fiscal resource revenue to resource output, is a key determinant of the equilibrium real...

Persistent current account deficits are common among low- and middle-income countries. We evaluate when this situation triggers a crisis and characterize it. Using a non-parametric estimator, we find a critical value for the yearly current account deficit just before the crisis sets off. These...

In Q3 2021, the current account surplus of the RF balance of payments picked up considerably as compared to the same period of the previous year. It happened primarily owing to the appreciation of prices for primary products and increased export volumes thereof. At the same time, there was...

In August 2021, the share of enterprises that reported that prices for purchased products rose again became very large (81%). This provoked an increase in the corresponding diffusion index, which for the fourth time per year reached 90% – the maximum value for the past 6 years. For the rest of...

This paper, written as a chapter for a Handbook of International Economics, reviews developments in the theory of international monetary economics from the late 1960's through the early 1980's. Following a review of the operation of the monetary mechanism of balance of payments adjustment in the...

The memo summarizes the design and use of the IMF's precautionary facilities since their introduction and discusses lessons and potential reform options. In particular, the framework for these facilities should be adjusted to address prolonged use at high access levels.

Purpose - The aim of this paper is to make a descriptive exploratory effort to discern the role of IT exports in India's macro-economic indicators, like national income, employment and balance of payment in the post-Liberalization, Privatization and Globalization strategy in the 1990s. The paper...

This paper investigates empirically whether there is a negative relationship between a country's risk premium and the balance sheet effect, as implied by recent theories emphasizing financial imperfections. We find evidence that balance sheet effects, stemming from the increase in the external...

This paper first surveys a number of partial and macroeconomic approaches to the determination of the current account, and then summarizes the evidence from multicountry economic models about the linkages between U.S. government spending and the U.S. current account during the 1 980s. The...

The collapse of a fixed exchange rate is typically marked by a sudden balance-of-payments crisis in which"speculators" fleeing from the domestic currency acquire a large portion of the central bank's foreign exchange holdings.Faced with such an attack, the central bank often withdraws...

The separation of security and economic objectives in foreign policy, which was often sought in international political issues in the past, has outlived its usefulness. The transition to a more power-based order can be felt around the world. International economic instruments and agreements are...

The scant literature that addresses issues related to the Technology Balance of Payments (TBP) often refers that a surplus balance may correspond to a high degree of technological autonomy, a low level of technology imports, or an inability to assimilate foreign technologies. It is not clear,...

Illicit financial flows (IFFs) threaten countries' ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Progressing on the IFFs target is thus crucial, as is the ability to measure achieved progress. In this paper we explore how to best statistically measure tax avoidance by...

Profit shifting by multinational enterprises-through manipulation of transfer prices of related-party trade, intragroup lending, or the location of intangibles-affects international flows, raising the question of its impact on the current account and external balances. This paper approaches this...

An external sector statistics (ESS) mission visited Djibouti from January 26-30, 2020. This was the fourth mission under the JSA/AFR project to improve ESS in 17 Francophone African countries. The mission found that significant data on direct investment (DI) have not been incorporated in either...

In 2020, the Spanish economy recorded net lending of 1.1% of GDP, significantly below the previous year’s level of 2.5%. This decline essentially reflects the impact of the health crisis on travel credits, which contracted sharply, owing to the restrictions on international mobility and on...

The traditional current account can be an inaccurate measure of the change in the net foreign asset (NFA) position. Using gross asset and liability positions at the country level, a number of 'valuation effects' have been identified which contribute to changes in NFA but do not enter the...

This paper analyzes the behavior of the current account and the exchange rate in the British economy during the 1970's, and discusses the outlook, as influenced by the availability of oil revenues, for exchange rate developments during the 1980's.Both trade and exchange rate behavior are...

This paper incorporates international capital flows into a two-country, monetary-general-equilibrium model of asset prices with investment and production. We use the model to calculate theoretical covariances between investment, the current account, the exchange rate, and the terms of...

In Q1 2021, Russia’s trade surplus reduced by almost one third compared to Q1 2020 due to growth in the total value of imports. Net capital outflows from the private sector decreased compared to the same period last year. This was mainly due to the growth of foreign banking assets and other...

This note again refutes Kuska's proposition that equality between the demand for and supply of money ("money market equilibrium") implies equilibriumin the balance of payments.Indeed, under a regime of fixed exchange rates it is precisely the balance of payments deficit or surplus that...

This paper provides a choice theoretic, general equilibriumaccount of the balance of payments adjustment process and the determinationof national price levels in a world comprised of countries populated byrational households. Balance of payments adjustment dynaniics arise in theequilibrium of...

With the mounting U.S. trade deficit, much attention has centered on the role of U.S. macroeconomic policy and economic structure as contributing factors. This paper contends that the economic structure and policies of Japan have also done much to contribute to the trade imbalance. Institutional...

This paper develops a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the foreign exchange market extending the standard textbook model in two respects. First, capital account transactions are explicitly incorporated into the model, and secondly, 'rational' speculative behaviour is also introduced. At a...

In his seminal 1960 article Robert Mundell proposed a model of balance-of-payments crises in which confidence in the continuation of a currency peg depended on the observed holdings of central bank foreign reserves. We examine the implications of a reformulation of this view from the perspective...

Using a sample of 32 developed and developing countries we analyze the empirical characteristics of sudden stops in capital flows and the relevance of balance sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. We find that large real exchange rate (RER) fluctuations coming hand in hand...

At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, the flight to safety was accompanied by a rapid appreciation of “safe haven” currencies. We quantify currency-induced balance sheet effects for total external positions as well as for individual asset classes using...

The pandemic has dealt a heavy blow to the world economy and global commodity markets. The COVID-19 containment measures have taken a toll on economic activity particularly in Q2 2020 when the majority of G20 countries demonstrated an unprecedented drop in real GDP. In relation to G20 as a...

When thinking about how the gold standard worked, economists tend to focus on issues of price level determination and the self-correcting role of gold production.1 Less attention is usually given to the international adjustment mechanism. However, the international adjustment mechanism is...

In Q2 2021, the current account balance amounted to $19.9 bn, vs $1.6 bn in Q2 of last year. Russia’s trade balance demonstrated a significant increase relative to Q2 2020. Net capital outflow from the private sector declined on the same period of last year, while the global economy was...