This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan (CNY)-denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. The financial sector plays a vital role in the Chinese economy, which has grown rapidly in the past several decades. Going forward, interest rate swaps are likely to have an important role in...

This paper econometrically models the dynamics of the Chilean interbank swap yields based on macroeconomic factors. It examines whether the month-over-month change in the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for other factors, such as...

John Maynard Keynes (1930) asserted that the central bank sways the long-term interest rate through the influence of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. Recent empirical research shows that Keynes's conjecture holds for long-term Treasury yields in the United States. This paper...

John Maynard Keynes argued that the central bank influences the long-term interest rate through the effect of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. However, Keynes's claim was confined to the behavior of the long-term government bond yield. This paper investigates whether Keynes's...

We study power exchange options written on zero-coupon bonds under a stochastic string term-structure framework. Closed-form expressions for pricing and hedging bond power exchange options are obtained and, as particular cases, the corresponding expressions for call power options and constant...

With the transitions to overnight benchmarks as the main benchmarks in some currencies, futures based on overnight rates are becoming more common. The most traded futures on overnight rates settle against compounded rates. The pricing of those futures requires some convexity adjustments with an...

When interest rates change, interest rate options dealers buy or sell securities to adjust the hedging positions that they have taken in order to offset their options exposures. The net result of this trading activity, which is unrelated to economic fundamentals, can be to push interest rates...

Building on the facility design and application experience from the global financial crisis, in March 2020 the Federal Reserve eased the terms on its standing swap lines in collaboration with other central banks, reactivated temporary swap agreements, and introduced the new Foreign and...

In electronic rates markets accuracy and low latency are threshold requirements that can be a barrier to market entry as they are essential to survive and compete. In this paper we outline how to achieve high performance by reducing swap pricing and risk calculations into trivial vector and...

The object of this paper is to test several familiar hypotheses about the relationship between the forward rates implied by the term structure and interest rate expectations, using the one ongoing systematic survey that samples market participants' expectations. The substitution of survey data...

Volatility Skew and Smile of Interest Rate products (Swaption and Caplet) are represented by SABR (Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho model). So, the Interest Rate derivatives model for pricing the callable exotic swaps should be comparable to the SABR volatility surface. In the interest rate derivatives...

In 2017 the Alternative Reference Rate Committee (ARRC) recommended the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) as the replacement for USD LIBOR as the reference rate for use in derivatives and financial contracts. Since then SOFR-linked derivatives started to develop and their liquidities have...

This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy on real economic activity and prices in Japan, during the last three decades when the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates was occasionally binding. To identify monetary policy shocks, we use the monetary policy surprises from the...

From interbank interest rate option prices, we obtain the implied market expectations for interest rates using a genetic algorithm and a multifactor term structure model. We further analyse how those expectations differ for a subset of options and futures, and whether those expectations...

This research aims to study the viability of a reformed interbank rate for the Moroccan money market within the framework of the global transition of reference indices. Through the analysis of 351 days of quotation, we were able to obtain a rather encouraging result with the selected methodology...

In this paper we investigate the price, volatility and micro-level effects of central bank swap lines during the 2020 pandemic. These policies lowered the ceiling on covered interest rate parity violations and reduced volatility following settlement of swap line auctions. We then combine...

We show that term premia rise when volatility increases in Brazil, whereas the literature shows that volatility is negatively correlated with term premia in advanced economies. We analyze how marketexpectations differ for a subset of options and futures and whether those expectations accurately...

This paper documents vanilla interest-rate options (caps, floors and swaptions) newly introduced in China. The underlying rates are the RMB loan prime rates (LPRs), the foremost interest rates that matter to almost all businesses and households in China. They are digital with a tick size of five...

DI1 futures are referenced against one-day interbank deposits (CDI) in the Brazilian onshore market. They have an underlying rate R computed as the average of 1D CDI rates compounded daily on a Bus/252 day count basis, where Bus/252 is equivalent to Act/252.Futures are short interest rate...

Applying historical data from the USD LIBOR transition period, we estimate a joint model for SOFR, Fed Funds, and Eurodollar futures rates as well as spot USD LIBOR and term repo rates. The framework endogenously models basis spreads between each of the benchmark rates and allows for the...

Regulators and central banks are defining-through mathematical formulae-the market microstructure for the calculation of fixings for LIBOR interest rate swaps in terms of the relevant swap rates that reference the Risk-Free Rate that will replace a particular LIBOR post its cessation. The...

The class of forward-LIBOR market models can, under certain volatility structures, produce unrealistically high long-dated forward rates, particularly for maturities and tenors beyond the liquid market calibration instruments. This paper presents a diagnostic tool for analysing the quantiles of...

The existence of the credit derivatives written on the eurobonds such as credit default swaps or asset swaps allows policymakers and investors to monitor the evolvement of credit risk. However, these instruments are mostly available in advanced economies, whereas the market for credit...

This paper studies the hedging effectiveness of interest rate swaps using different reference rates for eliminating interest rate risk from floating rate loans. Two different reference rates are studied. The first is a reference rate whose maturity, ∆, matches the payment interval of the...

Modelling joint dynamics of liquid vanilla options is crucial for arbitrage-free pricing of illiquid derivatives and managing risks of option trade books. This paper develops a nonparametric model for the European options book respecting underlying financial constraints and while being...

As markets become more electronic and inevitably faster, we see the increasing importance of efficient methods for pricing and risk. This paper introduces analytical deltas for general interest rate swaps

Short articles on the LIBOR scandal looking for a deeper understanding of the crisisAt the end of June 2012, news of a further scandal in the banking industry broke – although, there was widespread knowledge about this problem within the industry. One UK bank, Barclays, had fines levied by the...

The purpose of this research is to determine the practicality of a prospective reform of the Moroccan money market's interbank rate within the context of the worldwide shift of reference indices. By analyzing 351 days of quotations, we were able to acquire an optimistic result using the chosen...

This paper examines the forecast power of subsets of the option-implied interest rate derivatives’ expectations. We use a string market model with three factors to extract the implied risk-neutral volatility of the short-end interest rate term structure. Using data from the Brazil derivatives...

We perform a network analysis of the centrally cleared interest rate derivatives market in the European Union, by looking at counterparty relations within both direct (house) clearing and client clearing. Since the majority of the gross notional is transferred within central counterparties and...

Term structure models employing Poisson-Gaussian processes may be used to accommodate the observed skewness and kurtosis of interest rates. This paper extends the discrete-time, pure-Gaussian version of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model to the pricing" of American-type bond options when the...

Long term forward rates contain information that greatly improves the precision with which expectations of future short rates can be distinguished from risk premia in the term structure. Indeed, in affine models, the slope of the term structure of risk premia for long maturities is very closely...

By halting the LIBOR's publication, large volumes of fixed income securities, from loans to derivatives, will fall back to an alternative fixing reference. The initial proposal of a SOFR fallback eliminated any degree of subjectivity but opened up funding risk. Overlaying a credit spread over...

The over-the-counter (OTC) market sees the majority of trading volume in the finance industry, yet it remains vastly unregulated. Inherent to its nature are issues with transparency, efficiency and security, which have been barely addressed by legislators post the 2008 crisis. We propose that...

Following the Dodd-Frank Act, central clearing and centralized trading became mandatory for a class of the most liquid interest rate swaps (IRS). Nevertheless, IRS market making in the dealer-to-client sector remained concentrated at a few regulated banks that transfer their funding costs to end...

We estimate forward-looking interest-rate reaction functions for the G3 economies and for a group of countries which recently adopted inflation targets. Some significant shifts in the conduct of monetary policy are detected in the G3 countries, especially in the USA and Japan. In contrast with...

Based on a stylised financial system along with a systemic perspective thereof, we consider the structure of an aggregated banking system that is vulnerable to liquidity risks. Within this setup, a consistent mathematical modelling framework for term interest rate systems is derived that enables...

In this paper we illustrate and explain the relationship between interest rates (or forward rates) and discount factors. We present the forward-discount factor relationship, which is popular and widely used in financial markets for yield curve construction, and derive the exact formulae using a...

Volatilities implied from interest rate swaptions are used to assess the size and the sign of the compensation for volatility risk, for dollar, euro and pound rates at a daily frequency, between October 1998 and August 2006. The measurement of the volatility risk premium rests on a simple model...