We develop a structural framework to identify the sources of cross-state heterogeneity in response to US tariff changes. We quantify the effects of unilaterally increasing US tariffs by 25 percentage points across sectors. Welfare changes range from −0.8 percent in Oregon to 2.1 percent in...

We estimate the welfare implications of a cost-reflective 'Coasian' reform of electricity network tariffs using an Irish case study. We find that current Distribution Use of System (DUoS) tariffs deviate considerably from a cost-reflective structure. At the individual level, tariff reform leads...

This paper considers the design of efficient Distribution Use of System (DUoS) tariffs for the Irish electricity distribution network. We calculate indicative costreflective 'Coasian' tariff for residential, commercial and industrial consumers. Under a cost-reflective 'Coasian' structure, non...

We study the impact of the Indian trade liberalization of 1991 on development at the district level using satellite nighttime lights per capita as a proxy for development. We find that on average trade liberalization increased nighttime lights per capita but there was considerable heterogeneity...

Vier Jahre nach Beginn des chinesisch-amerikanischen Zollkriegs und zwei Jahre nach der Unterzeichnung des Phase-One-Abkommens ist ein guter Zeitpunkt gekommen, um die Auswirkungen der Außenhandelspolitik auf die US-Wirtschaft zu untersuchen. Auch wenn die Entwicklungen seit 2019 von anderen...

This paper presents two empirical tools to quantify the impacts of tariff changes on bilateral trade and welfare. Both tools are rooted in the structural gravity literature. The first tool estimates the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade for 5,020 products in a partial equilibrium...

We evaluate a stated choice experiment on dynamic electricity tariffs based on two representative household surveys from Germany and Japan. Our results indicate significant differences between German and Japanese respondents' preferences towards dynamic tariffs, with the latter generally being...

Vier Jahre nach Beginn des chinesisch-amerikanischen Zollkriegs und zwei Jahre nach der Unterzeichnung des Phase-One-Abkommens ist ein guter Zeitpunkt gekommen, um die Auswirkungen der Außenhandelspolitik auf die US-Wirtschaft zu untersuchen. Auch wenn die Entwicklungen seit 2019 von anderen...

Using actual trade and tariff data for the United States and the European Community, this paper demonstrates how a trade negotiation such as the Tokyo Round, can be modelled as a game among countries attempting to minimize individual welfare loss functions. Once welfare functions are...

This paper considers tariff phase-outs in multilateral and preferential agreements. The paper finds that early GATT rounds primarily were over bindings of existing rates and that it was not until the 1962-67 Kennedy Round's 50% reduction in manufactured goods tariffs that time paths of tariff...

This paper presents new estimates of the average tariff on total and dutiable U.S. imports from 1790 to 1820. These previously unavailable series are comparable to the tariff figures available from 1821 in the Historical Statistics of the United States. These early tariffs were much lower, on...

In the wake of Brexit and the Trump tariff war, and a general weakening of the political support for free trade, central banks have been faced with the need to reconsider the role of monetary policy in managing the economic effects of unexpected hikes in tariffs and trade costs. Although tariffs...

We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify firms that eventually faced tariff increases. They accounted for 84% of all exports and represented...

Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using...

While it is well-recognized that there are differences in the trade values reported by exporters and importers, a literature has emerged linking this trade gap to tariff evasion. These efforts, however, lack a structural theoretic underpinning and limit their product-level investigations to a...

While it is well-recognized that there are differences in the trade values reported by exporters and importers, a literature has emerged linking this trade gap to tariff evasion. These efforts, however, lack a structural theoretic underpinning and limit their product-level investigations to a...

Can anti-dumping tariffs increase employment? To answer this question we compile data on all anti-dumping (AD) investigations in Brazil, which we match to firm-level administrative employment information. Using difference-in-differences, we estimate the effect of AD tariffs on trade, the...

We examine the causal effect of tariff uncertainty on firms’ cost of debt. Our tests exploit a unique trade policy that reduces tariff uncertainty on Chinese imports without affecting the actual tariff rate: the U.S.-China Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR). We find a significant drop in...

This paper uses the product-level data from 1997 to 2015 to analyze whether the trade policy substitution hypothesis is applicable to China. Our empirical research shows that there is a substitution relationship between China's temporary trade barriers and tariff reductions. Additionally, this...

This research paper highlights the adverse impacts of the continuing WTO moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions on the developing and least developed countries. The rapidly progressing digitalization along with the ongoing pandemic and the food crisis are creating multiple...

This research note attempts to identify major trends in pharmaceutical tariffs since the early 2000s, in particular average tariff rates and the scale of individual product coverage by tariffs. It concludes by calling for international action to legally oblige governments to reduce tariffs on...

This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for...

In the wake of Brexit and Trump trade war, central banks face the need to reconsider the role of monetary policy in managing the inflationary-recessionary effects of hikes in tariffs. Using a New Keynesian model enriched with elements from the trade literature, including global value chains,...

This paper analyzes the short-run trade effects of retaliatory tariffs against agriculture and food exports from the United States. The results indicate that these tariffs caused a substantial decline in U.S. agriculture and food exports and induced a reorientation of international trade...

We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the U.S. and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth and labor skill. When tariff...

On 24th January 2022, the Chair of AOA announced the need to maintain the good momentum of negotiations and make the best use of the extra time before the next Ministerial Conference begins. In this paper, we examine some of the so-called ‘good momentums’ and the manner these good momentums...

Consumers often struggle to grasp complicated pricing plans, including increasing block rate (IBR) schemes, which have been used for decades by utilities in many parts of the world. The assumption that they encourage conservation has, however, recently been challenged (Ito, 2014). We take...

Recent studies report that the overall burden of tariffs has entirely passed to U.S. firms and consumers in terms of higher import prices. However, using 10-digits import data from U.S. Customs for 2018-2019, we find that import prices of steel products behaved differently: First, foreign...

This paper uses novel barcode-level country of origin data to study the incidence of the US-China trade war in 2018-2019. I find that the incidence of these policies initially fell entirely to US consumers, which is in line with previous research. However in the medium to long-run I find that...

Why would the US threaten punitive tariffs on luxury autos to implement a market share target in auto parts? We show that by making threats to a linked market, a market share may be implemented with fairly weak informa- tional and administrative requirements. Moreover, such policies can be both...

This paper studies the distributional costs to US consumers of country-specific tariffs. By linking detailed household purchase records with a barcode-specific country-of-origin, I estimate a demand model with both detailed consumer heterogeneity and rich import substitution patterns in the face...

Policymakers often intervene in markets to protect domestic producers against foreign competitors. Two such interventions are import tariffs and production subsidies, both of which are, in general, costly. Tariffs on foreign producers, while generating revenues for the policymaker, may impose...

This research is interested to observe from a multi-dimensional perspective the consumption effects (domestic consumption), production effects (domestic production), trade effects (imports), and revenue (government) under different tariffs simultaneously. We introduce a new model is entitled...

Trade relationships are very complicated especially given the battles between Keynesian and Neo-liberal economic views on the issue. Game theory and its application in international trade can provide a simplistic but important method for quantifying the benefits of trading. In this paper, we...

Can anti-dumping tariffs increase employment? We compile data on all antidumping (AD) investigations in Brazil matching it to firm-level administrative employment information. Using difference-in-differences, we find that, an AD tariff decreases imports and increases employment in the protected...