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Simulation der Auswirkungen der US-Zölle auf den Wirtschaftsstandort Hamburg (Stand: Herbst/Winter 2025)

Sacht, Stephen - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614600

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Simulation der Auswirkungen der US-Zölle auf den Wirtschaftsstandort Hamburg (Stand: Herbst/Winter 2025)

Sacht, Stephen - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The elasticity of imports to MFN tariffs

Tamberi, Nicolò - 2026

When the UK left the EU, it introduced a new import tariff schedule, one of the largest MFN tariff reforms in decades of a developed economy. This paper exploits this policy change to estimate the elasticity of imports to MFN tariffs, addressing the endogeneity of trade policy through two...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617663

From trade war to green transition : optimal electric vehicle tariffs with revenue-funded subsidies

Barwick, Panle Jia; Collison, Jack; Goldberg, Pinelopi K.; … - 2026

We study the optimal design of trade and industrial policy when governments pursue environmental objectives alongside traditional welfare goals. Motivated by the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and growing concerns about competitiveness, energy security, and climate change, we...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654689

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From trade war to green transition : optimal electric vehicle tariffs with revenue-funded subsidies

Barwick, Panle Jia; Collison, Jack; Goldberg, Pinelopi K.; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The causal effects of tariff uncertainty on consumers' macroeconomic expectations and spending plans

Candia, Bernardo; Mitchell, James; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619007

Modeling transfers of tariff revenue to firms within a multi-stage partial equilibrium model

Phillips, Paul - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015562201

Trump's tariffs, global trade and Europe's strategic choice

Gros, Daniel - 2026

The return of trade policy as an instrument of geopolitics has raised concerns about the future of the global trading system. But Trump's tariffs of 2025 have not led to a collapse of global trade. The key reason for this resilience is that Trump's tariffs are discriminatory, i.e. the US has a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015608704

Tariffs and firm expectations

Abberger, Klaus; Bibaj, Arbërim; Gersbach, Hans; … - 2026

We study how firms' expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609695

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Tariffs and firm expectations

Abberger, Klaus; Bibaj, Arbërim; Gersbach, Hans; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Tariffs and firm expectations

Abberger, Klaus; Bibaj, Arbërim; Gersbach, Hans; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The sequencing of import tariffs and emissions taxes : does the timing impact economic performance?

Haruna, Shoji; Goel, Rajeev K. - 2026

The intersection of environmental policies and trade policies on external diseconomies has received considerable attention in recent years. However, the impacts of the timing of pollution taxes versus import tariffs on economic performance have not been formally considered, and this forms the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609862

The economics of tariffs

Ossa, Ralph; Redding, Stephen - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611075

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The Economics of Tariffs

Ossa, Ralph; Redding, Stephen - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The economics of tariffs

Ossa, Ralph; Redding, Stephen - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Impact of the 2025 United States tariffs on firm export behavior : evidence from Asian customs data

Iseki, Ritsuko; Miyakawa, Daisuke; Shinozaki, Shigehiro - 2026

This paper dissects the impact of United States (US) tariffs introduced in 2025 on firm exports, concentrating on heterogeneity. Using comprehensive export customs data to the US from six selected Asian countries from January 2024 to August 2025, we confirm that for the first few months after...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611504

Elsewhere in North America : how U.S. tariffs on China boosted Mexico's manufacturing employment and output

Utar, Hâle - 2026

Using administrative longitudinal firm- and plant-level data from Mexico that links manufacturing firms to their customs records and covers the period 2014 - 2023, I examine whether US tariffs targeting China have contributed to a manufacturing revival in the southern part of North America....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592349

A world trading system for whom? : evidence from global tariffs

Adao, Rodrigo; Becko, John Sturm; Costinot, Arnaud; … - 2026 - This version: December 2025

We use global tariffs to reveal the weights that nations implicitly place on the welfare of their trading partners relative to their own. Our estimated welfare weights suggest that formal and informal rules of the world trading system make countries internalize the impact of their policies onto...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015586675

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A world trading system for whom? : evidence from global tariffs

Adao, Rodrigo; Becko, John Sturm; Costinot, Arnaud; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Welfare improving prohibitive tariffs

Marjit, Sugata; Misra, Suryaprakash; Kabiraj, Tarun; … - 2026 - First draft

We consider welfare impacts of prohibitive tariffs on trading partners. Initially, there is prohibitive tariff by one country and a zero tariff by its trading partner. Thereafter, the trading partner also resorts to prohibitive tariff. We demonstrate how prohibitive tariffs by the trading...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015587531

The EU-India trade deal : strategic diversification in an era of uncertainty

Hinz, Julian; Langhammer, Rolf J.; Mahlkow, Hendrik; … - 2026 - Unlayouted version

• The EU-India FTA generates mutual economic gains of 0.12-0.13% of GDP for both partners, with bilateral trade surging by 41-65%. • Since the 50 percentage points tariffs imposed by the US cost India 1.6% of GDP, the EU-India FTA provides a crucial hedge while the EU demonstrates commitment...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015589521

Who fears job losses from U.S. tariff hikes? : evidence from Cambodia

Tanaka, Kiyoyasu; Ueki, Yasushi - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015590060

Can soybean tariff shocks trigger abnormal asymmetric phenomena in futures markets? : evidence from the 2025 U.S.-China trade friction

Chen, Arthur Walter; Zhang, Zichen - 2026

This study, set against the backdrop of escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, examines the impact of soybean tariff adjustments on the abnormal asymmetric behavior in the futures market. By employing specialized analytical methods that capture market volatility asymmetry...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015591120

Role of economies of scale for the external tariffs and trade agreement formation : a theoretical and empirical investigation

Azeem, Muhammad; Stoyanov, Andrey; Yildiz, Halis Murat - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015579691

Die Wirkungen des Industriezollabbaus auf Konsumentenpreise

Lehmann, Jonas; Mergele, Lukas; Wehrli, Damian; Gajdos, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604159

The employment consequences of anti-dumping tariffs : lessons from Brazil

Souza, Gustavo de; Li, Haishi - 2026 - Original version: January 2025, this version: Januar 2026

How do import tariffs affect employment? We develop an empirical strategy to identify the effects of tariffs using difference-in-differences, comparing anti-dumping (AD) investigations resulting in dumping tariffs to those not resulting in dumping tariffs. We find that an AD tariff decreases...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605203

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The employment consequences of anti-dumping tariffs : lessons from Brazil

Souza, Gustavo de; Li, Haishi - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The employment consequences of anti-dumping tariffs : lessons from Brazil

Souza, Gustavo de; Li, Haishi - 2022

Book / Working Paper

The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs : Lessons from Brazil

Souza, Gustavo de; Li, Haishi - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Did foreigners pay America's tariffs? : quantity discounts, scale economies and incomplete pass-through

Ganapati, Sharat; Hottman, Colin - 2026

Transaction-level quantity discounts are a pervasive feature of US trade, shaping both price variation and tariff incidence. Using administrative microdata, we show that these discounts reflect transaction-level scale economies rather than market power. Accounting for these micro-level economies...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606354

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Did foreigners pay America's tariffs? : quantity discounts, scale economies and incomplete pass-through

Ganapati, Sharat; Hottman, Colin J. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Did Foreigners Pay America's Tariffs? : Quantity Discounts, Scale Economies and Incomplete Pass-Through

Ganapati, Sharat; Hottman, Colin J. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Fiscal limits to protectionism : the 2025 U.S. tariff Laffer curve

Pujolas, Pau S.; Rossbach, Jack - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015607620

The SMU trade dashboard : tracking and quantifying the Trump II tariffs

Chang, Pao-Li; Chen, Ruoqing; Ma, Lin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624521

America first? : the macroeconomic implications of punitive tariffs in a production network model

Ernst, Anne; Hinterlang, Natascha; Jäger, Marius; … - 2026

Since 2018, tariffs have re-emerged as a tool for protecting domestic economies, particularly in the US. This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of various import tariff scenarios using a four-region dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi-sectoral production network....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625007

A tariff model with bilateral deterrence

Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio - 2026

This paper develops a dynamic real-options model of tariff deterrence in which the exporting country, though subject to the importing country's market power, assumes the role of leader in a Stackelberg framework under uncertainty by acting preventively to dissuade the importer from imposing a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625875

Trump tariffs and persistence in crude oil prices : a long-memory approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Ojo, … - 2026

This paper examines the impact on crude oil prices of the trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration on 2 April 2025 ("Liberation Day"). More specifically, it uses fractional integration methods to analyse daily data on WTI, Brent and Murban oil prices spanning the period from 3 June...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626737

Evaluating tariff shock propagation in an integrated Demand system-MRIO framework

Naqvi, Syed Ali Asjad - 2026

This paper introduces a framework that integrates Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) elasticities with the ADB Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) database to evaluate the direct and indirect impacts of tariffs on Value Added at the country-sector level. Using the data on USA tariffs...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628180

Assessing the Welfare Impact of Tariff Liberalization for Women : Data and Analytical Framework

Porto, Guido; Winkler, Deborah - 2026

This paper presents a dataset and an analytical framework to study the welfare effects of tariff changes on women. The data is an extension of the Household Impacts of Tariffs (HIT) dataset, which contains harmonized household survey data for 54 low and lower middle-income countries. It includes...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628267

Estimating tax-dependent compliance : theory and evidence from trade wars

Bibler, Andrew; Gao, Yuting; Grigolon, Laura; Tremblay, Mark - 2026

Statutory tariff rates may overstate the tariffs actually paid due to evasion and avoidance. We develop a novel method to estimate tariff compliance and apply it to the 2018 trade war, when several countries imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. Estimated compliance falls by 25 percentage...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638999

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Estimating tax-dependent compliance : theory and evidence from trade wars

Bibler, Andrew; Gao, Yuting; Grigolon, Laura; Tremblay, Mark - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The design and effect of tariff retaliation : evidence from the European Union

Fisgin, Ece; Fleck, Johannes; Richards, Keith - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639199

Tariffs and goods-market search frictions

Krolikowski, Pawel M.; McCallum, Andrew H. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639203

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Tariffs and goods-market search frictions

Krolikowski, Pawel M.; McCallum, Andrew H. - 2025

Book / Working Paper

A history of U.S. tariffs : quantifying strategic trade‑offs in tariff policy design

Martínez-García, Enrique; Sposi, Michael - 2026

U.S. tariff policy has historically balanced competing goals-revenue, protection, and reciprocity. Policy priorities have shifted over time in response to changing economic and political conditions. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, we illustrate these trade-offs through the lens of...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643932

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A history of U.S. tariffs : quantifying strategic trade-offs in tariff policy design

Martínez-García, Enrique; Sposi, Michael - 2025

Book / Working Paper

An anatomy of the Great Reallocation in US supply chain trade

Alfaro, Laura; Chor, Davin - 2026

This paper documents stylized facts about the "Great Reallocation" in US supply chain trade following the 2018-2019 tariff shocks and the April 2025 Liberation Day announcements. We find that: (i) The US has decoupled from China but not from the world overall. (ii) US imports diversified mainly...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644699

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An Anatomy of the Great Reallocation in US Supply Chain Trade

Alfaro, Laura; Chor, Davin - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Electricity Tariff Reform and Energy Affordability in Georgia : Distributional Impacts and Policy Implications

2026

Despite strong recent economic growth and declines in monetary and electricity poverty, energy affordability remains a concern for a significant share of households in Georgia. This paper examines the distributional and welfare implications of electricity tariff reforms using household survey...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656074