In this note we derive the long-run public deficit to GDP ratio that is compatible with a sustainable public debt. Starting from the observation that a sustainable debt policy requires that the present value of public debt asymptotically converges to zero and that the debt to GDP ratio must be...

We study the fiscal consequences of large military buildups. To do so, we assemble the Global Budget Database, a comprehensive dataset of disaggregated central government finances for 20 countries from 1870 to 2022. We identify 114 episodes of military spending booms, in peace and war, and...

We examine the changing attention that ECB Governing Council members pay to different policy objectives by analysing more than 4,600 speeches given between the establishment of the ECB and the summer of 2024. Alongside the primary objective of price stability, we consider the following potential...

We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together...

This paper studies the international macro-financial implications of U.S. dollar-backed payment stablecoins. These digital assets create a new global safe asset channel that links private money creation and global payment needs directly to U.S. public debt. By reshaping the demand for safe...

We provide experimental evidence on how fiscal news shapes households' expectations and spending behavior. Using a new survey of ~11,000 Korean individuals linked to automatically collected high-frequency spending data, we elicit respondents' fiscal and macroeconomic beliefs and randomly provide...

Climate change is reshaping sovereign risk and macroeconomic stability by amplifying fiscal and external fragilities. This paper develops a unified framework to assess how climate vulnerability and resilience jointly influence fiscal–external solvency. We construct a market-based...

Compared with the relatively straightforward definition of a default event, assessing sovereign debt sustainability remains a grey area. The interaction between fiscal choices, lenders' expectations and economic uncertainty creates a setting in which-particularly when a default...

A reform in the German state of Hesse selectively shifted the responsibility for overseeing and enforcing a balanced budget rule at the municipal level. Oversight was transferred from politically affiliated county administrators to non-political and potentially more impartial fiscal supervisors...

This paper examines how firm perceptions influence the transmission of fiscal policy. Using natural language processing on corporate earnings calls from 51 countries over two decades, we construct Fiscal Perceptions Indicators (FPI) that capture the incidence, risk framing, and tone of fiscal...

The Direction of Planning (DNP) of the Ministry of Finance has sought Technical Assistance from ICD to help develop capacity for public debt projections and analysis. Pre-scoping and pre-mission meetings revealed that there was no single unit responsible for producing public debt projections. It...

The Direction of Planning (DNP) of the Ministry of Finance has sought Technical Assistance from ICD to help develop capacity for public debt projections and analysis. Pre-scoping and pre-mission meetings revealed that there was no single unit responsible for producing public debt projections. It...

The central contention of this report is that the UK fiscal framework has some desirable features but is not delivering good outcomes. We are in a bad equilibrium. The UK's fiscal framework is based around a set of pass-fail, numerical fiscal rules. The fiscal debate is overly fixated on the...

Emerging market economies (EMEs) regularly tap domestic and international capital markets through scheduled sovereign bond auctions. In this paper, we leverage a novel dataset covering over 75,000 sovereign issuance events and 20,000 securities from 20 EMEs between the early 2000s and 2023 to...

New Zealand's population is ageing. Public spending on public pensions (NZ Superannuation) and health are particularly sensitive to this trend and are expected to increase accordingly. Current and future government policies aimed at addressing this challenge will not only influence macroeconomic...

This report takes stock of government debt ratios in eight Central, Eastern and Southeastern European EU member states (CESEE-8) in 2024, including comparisons to 2023. It analyzes the major drivers behind debt developments, such as primary balances, interest payments, the impact of inflation,...

Fiscal sustainability refers to a government's capacity to generate sufficient revenue to cover its expenses and repay its debts without accumulating excessive liabilities or creating new money. Recent observations indicate that Kenya's economic growth has slowed, prompting concerns about its...

I develop a model-based definition of time-varying sovereign bond safety, and apply it empirically by constructing a news-based index, the FLY, that measures global safe-assets demand. The FLY captures flight-to-safety episodes, the savings glut, and natural interest rate declines. Estimated FLY...

We examine the changing attention that ECB Governing Council members pay to different policy objectives by analysing more than 4,600 speeches given between the establishment of the ECB and the summer of 2024. Alongside the primary objective of price stability, we consider the following potential...

This study examines public debt sustainability in the Eurozone by estimating fiscal reaction functions that assess how fiscal balances respond to rising public debt under heterogeneous macroeconomic conditions. Using annual panel data for 20 EU countries from 2000 to 2024, we employ fixed...

This study examines the impact of key governance dimensions on public budget rationalization in Palestine from 2002 to 2023. Utilizing Legitimacy Theory, the research assesses how institutional quality affects fiscal outcomes, including revenues, expenditures, net lending, and budget balance....

This paper examines the origins, evolution, and resolution efforts surrounding Sri Lanka's 2022 sovereign debt default. Many defaults are triggered by sudden external shocks, but, in contrast, Sri Lanka's crisis was largely the result of prolonged domestic policy failures, including chronic...

ypical debt sustainability metrics characterize Kenya's sovereign debt as "unsustainable" since around 2019. Further, the data show that, over time, commercial banks' private sector lending has declined while lending to the government has grown. Given these observations, this study examines...

Die aktuelle Schuldenbremse verhindert notwendige Zukunftsinvestitionen. Dieser Beitrag enthält einen pragmatischen Änderungsvorschlag des Artikel 109 Abs. 3 GG, der im Kern für einen Übergang von der kameralen Betrachtung der Einnahmen und Ausgaben zur kaufmännischen Betrachtung als...

Die im März 2025 beschlossenen Änderungen bei der Schuldenbremse eröffnen erhebliche zusätzliche Kreditfinanzierungsspielräume. Allerdings muss die deutsche Finanzpolitik nicht nur die Regelgrenzen des Grundgesetzes beachten. Auch die europäischen Vorgaben im Rahmen des Stabilitäts- und...

Die Koalitionssondierungen haben zu einer Einigung bei der Finanzierung von Infrastruktur und Rüstung geführt. Diese sieht vor, die Schuldengrenze im Grundgesetz bestehen zu lassen und sie zugleich mithilfe von kreditfinanzierten Sondervermögen bzw. Ausnahmeklauseln zu umgehen. Das wirft die...

Die wirtschaftliche Erholung bleibt in Deutschland aus. Die Konjunktur stagniert, die öffentlichen Haushalte sind strukturell überfordert und der demografische Wandel macht sich fiskalisch zunehmend negativ bemerkbar. Anstatt dieser Entwicklung mit nachhaltigen Reformen entgegenzuwirken,...

Bei Stablecoins handelt es sich um Finanzinstrumente, die ähnlich wie Geldmarktfonds funktionieren und in US-Staatsanleihen investieren. Jedoch werden bei Stablecoins keine Fondsanteile, sondern Kryptowerte erworben. Wie bei den Eurodollars in den 1960er und 1970er Jahren handelt es sich um...