The stability of global energy markets is fundamental to effective energy strategy, influencing national policy and corporate investment decisions. Extreme volatility, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, exposes the limitations of conventional risk assessment tools and undermines strategic...

This paper estimates the pass-through of world oil price innovations to Philippine fuel prices and headline CPI, and decomposes total CPI pass-through into a fuelbasket component and a residual non-fuel component. Using a recursive SVAR and 25 years of monthly Department of Energy pump price...

This paper examines the impact on crude oil prices of the trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration on 2 April 2025 ("Liberation Day"). More specifically, it uses fractional integration methods to analyse daily data on WTI, Brent and Murban oil prices spanning the period from 3 June...

We quantify the contribution of Venezuela’s oil sector collapse to changes in global oil market responsiveness after 2007. We extend the multi-country structural model of Baumeister and Hamilton (2024) by modeling Venezuela explicitly and constructing a counterfactual production path that...

This study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on crude oil tail risk using the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) framework. We analyzed 2364 daily observations of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures spanning 1 January 2015 to 11 December 2023, thereby...

Background: This study revisits whether oil revenue windfalls translate into higher socio-economic welfare in oil-exporting economies and explains why oil price booms often fail to generate sustained gains in real GDP per capita. Methods: Using annual data for ten oil-exporting countries over...

This paper presents the first formal comparison of Value at risk (VaR) forecasting performance across various high-frequency volatility models and conventional benchmarks using daily data in the crude oil futures market. Our analysis reveals the following key findings:(1) High-frequency data...

Once viewed by Ankara primarily as a fragmented security frontier, Iraq now sits at the centre of its regional strategy. This recalibration is shaped by shifting regional dynamics in the aftermath of 7 October: the weakening of Iran’s influence across multiple fronts, the Gulf states’ rising...

Research background: Algeria heavily relies on its oil revenues, being one of the leading crude oil producers in Africa and a key member of OPEC. This dependency exposes its economy to the volatility of oil prices in international markets, which can have significant repercussions on its...

This article explores the economic and political implications of de-dollarization in Saudi oil transactions, by focusing on the European Union countries. It examines how an increased euro usage in these transactions influences the real exchange rate of the euro against the dollar and the volume...

The recurrence of international geopolitical events has intensified tensions in global energy supply chains. As a major crude oil consumer, China urgently needs to identify vulnerabilities within its crude oil supply chain (COSC) and implement targeted measures to safeguard national energy...

This research investigates the responsiveness of climate and low-carbon (green) stock returns to oil prices and conventional energy stock returns, focusing on both contemporaneous and causal relationships, during an oil crisis. Two methodologies are used: vector auto-regressive (VAR) for testing...

We investigate the impact and propagation of geopolitical risk among oil-based energy commodities. First, we endogenously identify key geopolitical events affecting the connectedness among the oil-based commodities and then evaluate their transitory and persistent impacts. We identify four major...

This study investigates contagion across oil markets in 22 countries during eight crisis episodes from 2007 to 2023 using linear, asymmetric, and extremal dependence tests alongside network analysis. The combination of these methods provides a comprehensive approach to understanding the...

Saudi Arabia announced its ambitious goal to produce around 50 % of its electricity from renewable energy sources as part of its Vision 2030. The impact of this country's energy policy on economic-related areas has been the subject of intense research in the last decade. The aim of the study is...

Oil prices have been increasingly volatile since 2004. However, the impact of this volatility on domestic end-user prices differs significantly by fuel and country. Some countries fully pass through global price movements to domestic end-user prices, and some countries freeze domestic fuel...