This paper highlights an underexplored margin of heterogeneity that shapes resilience to disruptions in global shipping - the differential reliance of countries and sectors on specific categories of vessels. We combine US bills of lading records with ship registry and AIS-based port call data to...

This paper highlights an underexplored margin of heterogeneity that shapes resilience to disruptions in global maritime trade - the differential reliance of countries and sectors on specific categories of vessels. We combine US bills of lading records with ship registry and AIS-based port call...

Mainly through regression discontinuity designs, Khanna (2023a) studies the impacts of a primaryschooling expansion in India in the 1990s. Absent from the data set are four districts close tothe modeled treatment discontinuity. Incorporating them cuts the impact of intention to treat onschooling...

This paper presents an assessment of the macroeconomic impact of the Digital Europe Programme, a cornerstone of the EU's commitment to drive digital transformation. Using the RHOMOLO spatial dynamic computable general equilibrium model, the analysis quantifies the effects of the programme's...

Population aging in middle-income economies produces macroeconomic and distributional consequences that aggregate frameworks cannot detect. This paper develops a multi-household CGE model calibrated to a 26-sector Social Accounting Matrix for Thailand (2024) and traces the labor, saving, and...

TiMBA (Timber market Model for policy-Based Analysis) is a partial economic equilibrium model that simulates the global forestry sector, capturing economic interactions from raw material extraction to the processing of intermediate and end products (TI-FSM et al. 2025). The model underwent an...

How should a developing country such as South Africa respond to the USA's "Liberation Day" Tariffs of April 2025 and subsequent shocks? Combining the GTAP-Dynamic (GDyn) Computable General Equilibrium model with an expanded Decision Support Model (DSM), we simulate five policy response scenarios...

This paper presents quantitative projections on the expected economic impact of the Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) Agreement, which proceeds in three steps. First, we estimate the empirical impact of the host-economy investment facilitation environment on foreign affiliate sales....

U.S. tariff policy has historically balanced competing goals-revenue, protection, and reciprocity. Policy priorities have shifted over time in response to changing economic and political conditions. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, we illustrate these trade-offs through the lens of...

This paper assesses the national and regional impacts of the Marrakech-Fès highway project in Morocco using a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model combined with GIS-based road network data. The analysis captures how improved connectivity alters economic performance and emissions...

This paper assesses the long-term macroeconomic and environmental impacts of climate policies in the Czech Republic, a coal-dependent economy, under the EU's Fit-for-55 package. Using a hybrid dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, we integrate a bottom-up electricity module with...

The article studies differential capital taxation - distinct rates on interest income and risky profits - in a continuous-time representative-agent general equilibrium model with complete markets. It derives closed-form expressions for the equilibrium risk-free rate and the market price of risk....

This paper analyzes a monopolistic market with a continuum of consumers in the linear case. Consumers are vertically differentiated by a one-dimensional preference for quality, and the monopolist is allowed to offer a menu of quality-price pairs. The analysis shows that, in the linear case, the...

This paper examines the impact of shared religious composition on global wine trade. We assembled a novel dataset of bilateral wine trade flows and country-level religious affiliation for 102 countries from 1988 to 2023. Our theory-consistent gravity estimates show that a greater common share of...

We study how idiosyncratic income risk shapes the aggregate and distributional effects of labor and capital income taxation in dynamic general equilibrium models. To this end, we compare a heterogeneous-agent (HA) model with uninsurable idiosyncratic labor productivity risk and a...

In this paper, we analyse the effects on the economies of the European Union and the rest of the world, of several austerity policies implemented by the Southern European countries, i.e., Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain. In particular, we simulate the reduction in one point in the government...

Heterogeneous beliefs among market participants can lead to questionable speculative trading that goes beyond any risk-sharing motives. We demonstrate that such unwarranted betting behavior in market equilibrium can be mitigated by introducing nonlinear pricing for ambiguous contracts, without...

We argue that capital misallocation arises endogenously due to incomplete consumption insurance. We model risk-averse entrepreneurs with heterogeneous productivity who face idiosyncratic output shocks and choose how much capital to rent before uncertainty unfolds. We show that incomplete markets...

A major section of the existing literature on strategic trade policy, following a partial equilibrium framework, observed that imposition of tariff by the domestic country leads to a rise in their wage level. Analysis on the impact of strategic trade policy intervention (tariff) on wages and...

Uruguay recently confronted the impact of a once-in-a-century severe drought, which affected key agricultural areas, and caused significant direct losses to the agricultural sector, especially for soybean production and cattle farming - important exports in Uruguay's trade matrix. From October...

We leverage decades of administrative data and quasi-experimental variation in the introduction of universal long-term care (LTC) insurance in Germany in 1995 to examine whether health insurance expansions can stimulate local economies. We find that the LTC insurance rollout led not only to...

This paper uses results from leading biophysical models in an established macro-economic modeling framework to offer insights on potential economic consequences of climate change in Asia and the Pacific. The analysis covers shocks in agriculture, fisheries, forestry, energy demand, capital (from...

Does it pay to invest in green companies? In countries where a market for carbon is functioning, such as those within the European Union, our findings suggest that it should be beneficial. Using a sample of green and brown European firms, we initially demonstrate that green companies have...

In this paper, we compare the economic and welfare implications of two carbon pricing policies, namely the European Cap and Trade (CaT) regime and the Chinese Tradeable Performance Standard (TPS). The former sets an economy-wide emissions target and forces firms to purchase sufficient...

We construct a narrative instrument for government investment from official records in Germany. Using structural vector autoregressions, we document a significant crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of roughly 2. Then, we match a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general...