We provide new evidence on the effects of fiscal consolidation measures on output, unemployment, income inequality and consumer price inflation. To identify causal impacts, we use a narrative-based instrumental variable strategy drawing on historical records of exogenous fiscal changes motivated...

Long-term unemployment among older workers is particularly difficult to overcome. We study the impacts of a large-scale job guarantee program that offered up to two years of fully subsidized employment to long-term unemployed individuals aged 50 and above. Using a sharp age-based discontinuity...

Unlike past high-inflation episodes, the euro area labour market remained surprisingly resilient during the inflation surge of the early 2020s. This paper investigates the drivers of this resilience by combining long-span euro area macroeconomic data (1970-2025) with a structural VAR analysis...

Many countries use job-retention schemes, such as short-time work (STW), to stabilize the labor market during economic downturns. While these schemes might prevent unemployment (UE) and its adverse effects on workers, STW could also deter workers from moving to more productive firms, thereby...

Providing recently laid off workers with cash benefits may help them overcome mobility costs and thereby stimulate labor mobility. On the other hand, cash benefits may dampen the employment shock and reduce the incentive to move. In this paper, we test these two competing mechanisms against each...

This paper investigates the interplay between distributive conflict, wage dynamics, and persistent unemployment within a Kaleckian framework, emphasizing the long-memory properties of wages. We develop a stochastic model in which wages adjust adaptively to cumulative historical discrepancies...

Integration agreements (IA) outline the efforts the jobseeker should undertake to find employment and specify the services that the caseworker would provide to assist them in their job search. The agreements include a declaration of legal consequences, and punitive benefit sanctions could be...

The current monetary policy framework of the Fed intends to be more 'inclusive' by running the economy hot for longer during expansions. The logic of this strategy rests on Okun's (1973) hypothesis that sustaining a 'high-pressure economy' persistently improves labor market outcomes of low-wage...

Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use...

We exploit cross-sectional variation in the response of US states to a monetary policy shock to study how the impact of monetary policy varies with the share of married women who work. We find that the economy's response is more muted the lower the share of married women employed before the...

The risk of a worker falling into unemployment represents one of the most important threats to the stability of households' finances - both in terms of lower spending (and hence living standards) and in terms of a greater degree of financial distress (such as the accumulation of unmanageable...

We document a substantial reduction in the wage responsiveness to regional unemployment (the wage curve) in Sweden during the past 25 years. The period is characterized by large changes in the composition of the labor force arising from refugee migration and active labor supply policies...

This paper shows how changes in labor market mismatch can be attributed to the components unemployment, vacancies and matching efficiency. We find that unemployment is the most important factor and also drives the cyclical fluctuations, while the vacancy contributions are smaller and...

This article examines labor market dynamics in Bulgaria, Italy, and the United Kingdom by integrating demographic pressures, wage and labor cost adjustment, redistribution mechanisms, inequality outcomes, and digital readiness into a single comparative framework. This study first applies...

We study economic narratives - causal accounts of observed events - in a high-stakes real-world context: long-term unemployment. We use open-ended questions to measure narratives about long-term unemployment in samples of Danish unemployed job seekers, firm managers, households from the general...

This paper evaluates EU Cohesion Policy interventions during 2014-2020 using regression discontinuity design (RDD), exploiting funding thresholds at 75 and 90 percent of EU average GDP per capita across 281 NUTS-2 regions. The analysis examines nominal and real GDP per capita growth, GDP per...

Providing recently laid offworkers with cash benefits may help them overcome mobility costs and thereby stimulate labor mobility. On the other hand, cash benefits may dampen the employment shock and reduce the incentive to move. In this paper, we test these two competing mechanisms against each...

This study assesses how pandemic-related job losses and social protection impacted food security in South Africa using five waves of data from the NIDS-CRAM survey of 794 individuals. Job loss increased food insecurity by 5.2% (14%), consistent across five methods and lasting for 12 months....

High rates of unemployment and non-participation in the labor market are often attributed to labor market mismatch. This paper examines the mismatch between job seekers' expectations and Egypt's labor market realities. For the non-employed, analyses examine reservation wages and what occupations...

Aus dem einleitenden Teil: "Im Auftrag des AMS Österreich (AMS) führt das Institut Synthesis Forschung regelmäßig Analysen wie Prognosen des österreichischen Arbeitsmarktes durch (siehe dazu auch die entsprechenden AMS-Publikationen im Internet: www.ams.at/forschungsnetzwerk). Das...

Der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt zeigt sich trotz wirtschaftlicher Schwäche und der wiederkehrenden Bezeichnung von Deutschland als "krankem Mann Europas" überraschend robust. Die Beschäftigungsquote liegt mit 77,4 Prozent weiterhin auf einem hohen Niveau, doch die Zahl der offenen Stellen ist seit...

Das Working Paper analysiert die Beziehungen zwischen Gewerkschaften und Protestantismus während der 1960er bis 1980er Jahre mit Blick auf ihre Relevanz für die gewerkschaftliche Politik. Diese Beziehungen waren sowohl durch Annäherung und zunehmende Zusammenarbeit als auch durch...

Die vorliegende Studie fragt nach Herkunft, Bedeutung und Auswirkung der Bezeichnung "Totalverweigerer", die ursprünglich von Bundesarbeitsminister Hubertus Heil für Grundsicherungsbeziehende, die mehrfach die Aufnahme einer Erwerbsarbeit verweigern, verwendet wurde. Ende März 2024 wurde dann...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft und der Arbeitsmarkt entwickeln sich seit drei Jahren schwach. Die Fiskalpakete werden die Konjunktur zwar beleben, die Beschäftigungsentwicklung stößt aber an Grenzen. Der Kurzbericht gibt einen Ausblick auf die Jahre 2025 und 2026.

Die Arbeitsmarktintegration von Erwachsenen mit Behinderungen nach einer beruflichen Rehabilitation hat sich in den letzten Jahren verbessert. Dies zeigen Analysen mit administrativen Daten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit. Gleichzeitig nehmen immer weniger Menschen eine berufliche Rehabilitation...

Der Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland ist weiterhin durch Stagnation gekennzeichnet. Bundesweit bleiben Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit 2026 im Vergleich zu 2025 nahezu unverändert. Auf Ebene der Bundesländer und der Agenturbezirke zeigen sich teilweise positive Entwicklungen, die jedoch bisher...

Die vorliegende Studie fragt nach Herkunft, Bedeutung und Auswirkung der Bezeichnung "Totalverweigerer", die ursprünglich von Bundesarbeitsminister Hubertus Heil für Grundsicherungsbeziehende, die mehrfach die Aufnahme einer Erwerbsarbeit verweigern, verwendet wurde. Ende März 2024 wurde dann...

This paper incorporates labor market inactivity and long-term unemployment into the framework of optimal redistributive taxation. We examine how a combination of education policy, public employment programs, unemployment benefits, and optimal income taxation can effectively address both...

As artificial intelligence (AI) and automation continue to reshape industries, concerns about technological unemployment are intensifying. This study employs a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) guided by the PRISMA framework to examine peer-reviewed literature from the Scopus database...