We provide new evidence on the effects of fiscal consolidation measures on output, unemployment, income inequality and consumer price inflation. To identify causal impacts, we use a narrative-based instrumental variable strategy drawing on historical records of exogenous fiscal changes motivated...

Long-term unemployment among older workers is particularly difficult to overcome. We study the impacts of a large-scale job guarantee program that offered up to two years of fully subsidized employment to long-term unemployed individuals aged 50 and above. Using a sharp age-based discontinuity...

Unlike past high-inflation episodes, the euro area labour market remained surprisingly resilient during the inflation surge of the early 2020s. This paper investigates the drivers of this resilience by combining long-span euro area macroeconomic data (1970-2025) with a structural VAR analysis...

Many countries use job-retention schemes, such as short-time work (STW), to stabilize the labor market during economic downturns. While these schemes might prevent unemployment (UE) and its adverse effects on workers, STW could also deter workers from moving to more productive firms, thereby...

Providing recently laid off workers with cash benefits may help them overcome mobility costs and thereby stimulate labor mobility. On the other hand, cash benefits may dampen the employment shock and reduce the incentive to move. In this paper, we test these two competing mechanisms against each...

This paper investigates the interplay between distributive conflict, wage dynamics, and persistent unemployment within a Kaleckian framework, emphasizing the long-memory properties of wages. We develop a stochastic model in which wages adjust adaptively to cumulative historical discrepancies...

Integration agreements (IA) outline the efforts the jobseeker should undertake to find employment and specify the services that the caseworker would provide to assist them in their job search. The agreements include a declaration of legal consequences, and punitive benefit sanctions could be...

The current monetary policy framework of the Fed intends to be more 'inclusive' by running the economy hot for longer during expansions. The logic of this strategy rests on Okun's (1973) hypothesis that sustaining a 'high-pressure economy' persistently improves labor market outcomes of low-wage...

Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use...

We exploit cross-sectional variation in the response of US states to a monetary policy shock to study how the impact of monetary policy varies with the share of married women who work. We find that the economy's response is more muted the lower the share of married women employed before the...

We document a substantial reduction in the wage responsiveness to regional unemployment (the wage curve) in Sweden during the past 25 years. The period is characterized by large changes in the composition of the labor force arising from refugee migration and active labor supply policies...

This paper shows how changes in labor market mismatch can be attributed to the components unemployment, vacancies and matching efficiency. We find that unemployment is the most important factor and also drives the cyclical fluctuations, while the vacancy contributions are smaller and...

Providing recently laid offworkers with cash benefits may help them overcome mobility costs and thereby stimulate labor mobility. On the other hand, cash benefits may dampen the employment shock and reduce the incentive to move. In this paper, we test these two competing mechanisms against each...

This study assesses how pandemic-related job losses and social protection impacted food security in South Africa using five waves of data from the NIDS-CRAM survey of 794 individuals. Job loss increased food insecurity by 5.2% (14%), consistent across five methods and lasting for 12 months....

We study economic narratives - causal accounts of observed events - in a high-stakes real-world context: long-term unemployment. We use open-ended questions to measure narratives about long-term unemployment in samples of Danish unemployed job seekers, firm managers, households from the general...

We study economic narratives - causal accounts of observed events - in a high-stakes real-world context: long-term unemployment. We use open-ended questions to measure narratives about long-term unemployment in samples of Danish unemployed job seekers, firm managers, households from the general...

Job loss is an understudied risk for formal workers in lower-income countries. In these settings, lump-sum severance pay is often the only source of job-loss insurance. We quasiexperimentally show that female factory workers in Ethiopia displaced by a tariff hike experience lasting declines in...

The volatility of oil prices has a considerable impact on the economies of oil-exporting countries, making it critical to understand how price variations affect labour markets and unemployment. This study investigates the distinct role of labour market institutions in moderating the effects of...

High rates of unemployment and non-participation in the labor market are often attributed to labor market mismatch. This paper examines the mismatch between job seekers' expectations and Egypt's labor market realities. For the non-employed, analyses examine reservation wages and what occupations...

This article examines labor market dynamics in Bulgaria, Italy, and the United Kingdom by integrating demographic pressures, wage and labor cost adjustment, redistribution mechanisms, inequality outcomes, and digital readiness into a single comparative framework. This study first applies...

We study economic narratives - causal accounts of observed events - in a high-stakes real-world context: long-term unemployment. We use open-ended questions to measure narratives about long-term unemployment in samples of Danish unemployed job seekers, firm managers, households from the general...

This paper evaluates EU Cohesion Policy interventions during 2014-2020 using regression discontinuity design (RDD), exploiting funding thresholds at 75 and 90 percent of EU average GDP per capita across 281 NUTS-2 regions. The analysis examines nominal and real GDP per capita growth, GDP per...

The risk of a worker falling into unemployment represents one of the most important threats to the stability of households' finances - both in terms of lower spending (and hence living standards) and in terms of a greater degree of financial distress (such as the accumulation of unmanageable...

Drawing upon extensive literature on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) spillovers, we hypothesize that FDI inflow represents a double-edged sword with respect to crime in host countries. On one hand, FDI can contribute to economic growth and social well-being by infusing capital and knowledge into...

Nach dem Abitur stehen junge Erwachsene vor der Entscheidung, ob sie eine Ausbildung beginnen oder sich an einer Hochschule einschreiben. Im Gegensatz zu Universitäten haben Hochschulen für Angewandte Wissenschaften in den letzten Jahren an Bedeutung gewonnen. Diese Studie untersucht, wie sich...

We study economic narratives-causal accounts of observed events-in a high-stakes real-world context: long-term unemployment. We use open-ended questions to measure narratives about long-term unemployment in samples of Danish unemployed job seekers, firm managers, households from the general...

Nach dem Abitur stehen junge Erwachsene vor der Entscheidung, ob sie eine Ausbildung beginnen oder sich an einer Hochschule einschreiben. Im Gegensatz zu Universitäten haben Hochschulen für Angewandte Wissenschaften in den letzten Jahren an Bedeutung gewonnen. Diese Studie untersucht, wie sich...

We investigate the effect of trade liberalization in a stagnant economy characterized by firm-level productivity heterogeneity. By incorporating Melitz's (2003) framework into a model of economic stagnation driven by insufficient aggregate demand, we examine how trade opening affects employment...

Job loss is known to adversely affect mental health, but the time course of recovery and the role of anticipation remain unclear. Using 22 annual waves (2001-2022) of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, we estimate fixed-effects models to examine the...

Aus dem einleitenden Teil: "Im Auftrag des AMS Österreich (AMS) führt das Institut Synthesis Forschung regelmäßig Analysen wie Prognosen des österreichischen Arbeitsmarktes durch (siehe dazu auch die entsprechenden AMS-Publikationen im Internet: www.ams.at/forschungsnetzwerk). Das...