This paper examines the circumstances under which firms facilitate occupational transitions, complementing prior work that focuses on workers' decisions. We link unemployment insurance records with application diaries and clickstream data from a recruitment platform to causally assess how...

Die Bundesregierung plant für 2026 eine umfassende Sozialstaatsreform, aufbauend auf den Ergebnissen der Sozialstaatskommission. Damit soll die deutsche Wirtschaft gestärkt und der Bundeshaushalt entlastet werden. Ob das gelingen kann, analysieren wir in diesem Papier: Wir quantifizieren die...

Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer...

This paper presents a conceptual framework to guide the development of labor market delivery systems suitable for low- and middle income countries. Case studies show that in most countries labor market programs are characterized by high fragmentation (in financing, delivery agencies), poor or...

Indonesia’s services sector has emerged as a key driver of economic growth and employment. Services have also been the driving force of global trade and investment. Advances in technology are expected to further improve the tradability of services, creating new opportunities for Indonesia....

This study provides an assessment of Ukraine’s transport workforce and skills landscape during a period of profound change. As maritime and air routes remain suspended, road freight, road passenger, and urban public transport have become the backbone of domestic and international mobility, and...

This report offers fresh insights into Saudi Arabia’s labor market transformation over the past decade, highlighting some of the accomplishments in reshaping employment outcomes achieved after implementation of Vision 2030 and the National Labor Market Strategy. Leveraging a rich dataset...

We examine the impact of generative AI on the youth labor market in Finland by replicating the key analyses of Brynjolfsson et al. (2025) with comprehensive population-level data. Contrary to the US findings, we find no systematic displacement effects linked to AI exposure among youth in...

Die Bundesregierung plant für 2026 eine umfassende Sozialstaatsreform, aufbauend auf den Ergebnissen der Sozialstaatskommission. Damit soll die deutsche Wirtschaft gestärkt und der Bundeshaushalt entlastet werden. Ob das gelingen kann, analysieren wir in diesem Papier: Wir quantifizieren die...

The private sector offers reliable labor market data that policymakers, investors, and the public can use to guide their decisions. Revelio Labs provides monthly labor stats from billions of work records, tracking employment, openings, turnover, and pay. Alternative data is created beyond the...

We analyze how value added taxes (VATs) affect labor market outcomes (firms' employee costs, wages, hours worked, employment). While VATs are designed to tax consumption, they are levied at the firm level, which creates potential spillovers to labor markets. We hypothesize that VATs affect wages...

We analyze how value added taxes (VATs) affect labor market outcomes (firms' employee costs, wages, hours worked, employment). While VATs are designed to tax consumption, they are levied at the firm level, which creates potential spillovers to labor markets. We hypothesize that VATs affect wages...

New digital and artificial intelligence technologies are fast reshaping skill requirements in the EU labour market, fostering skill mismatches. There are marked concerns about the potentially adverse consequences of automation and AI on employment, as well as the lagging competitiveness of EU...

Workforce adjustments, such as mass layoffs, are significant corporate events that can influence stock returns and volatility, yet their broader asset-pricing implications remain underexplored. We examine the impact of such workforce shocks on stock performance from an asset-pricing perspective....

Remote and hybrid work remain central features of the post-pandemic labor market, yet macro-labor evidence on their dynamics is limited by a lack of longitudinal data on individual work arrangements. This paper uses the Gallup Workplace Panel, a nationally representative worker panel over 2019...

Using administrative longitudinal firm- and plant-level data from Mexico that links manufacturing firms to their customs records and covers the period 2014 - 2023, I examine whether US tariffs targeting China have contributed to a manufacturing revival in the southern part of North America....

Unlike past high-inflation episodes, the euro area labour market remained surprisingly resilient during the inflation surge of the early 2020s. This paper investigates the drivers of this resilience by combining long-span euro area macroeconomic data (1970-2025) with a structural VAR analysis...

Artificial intelligence is changing which tasks workers do and how they do them. Predicting its labor market consequences requires understanding how technical change affects workers’ productivity across tasks, how workers adapt by changing occupations and acquiring new skills, and how wages...

This paper documents the labour market position of artists across Europe and examines how it co-varies with public cultural spending. Using EU-LFS micro-data for 2009-2023, we compare artists to non-artists using harmonised measures of wage rank, employment, and non-standard work. Using...

What are the returns to firms of paying more? We study a Fortune 500 firm's voluntary firm-wide $15/hour minimum wage, which affected some warehouses more than others. Using a continuous difference-in-differences design, we find that a $1/hour pay increase (5.5 percent) halves worker departures,...

This study examines the effects of the russia's full-scale invasion on the Ukrainian corporate labor market. We use the DID technique to analyze a panel data set of over 100,000 firms linked to geolocation and industry data spanning 2021-2024 and show how war harms the corporate labor market in...

This paper analyzes heterogeneity in post-pandemic labor market adjustment across industries, contrasting healthcare and social assistance with leisure and hospitality. Using CPS monthly microdata (2015-2023), JOLTS separations, and LEHD Jobto-Job flows, we estimate sector-specific...

Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use...

Foreign direct investment and the activities of multinational enterprises play an essential role in shaping employment outcomes, particularly in developing and emerging economies. With globalization and the expansion of global value chains, understanding how FDI influences labour markets has...

How do import tariffs affect employment? We develop an empirical strategy to identify the effects of tariffs using difference-in-differences, comparing anti-dumping (AD) investigations resulting in dumping tariffs to those not resulting in dumping tariffs. We find that an AD tariff decreases...

Die ökologische Transformation hat weitreichende Auswirkungen auf den gesamten Arbeitsmarkt und gleichfalls auf die Anforderungen in Berufen. So lässt sich in der jüngeren Vergangenheit in Deutschland ein Bedeutungswandel von Berufen mit überwiegend umweltbelastenden hin zu solchen mit mehr...

Vor Einführung eines flächendeckenden Mindestlohns in Deutschland im Jahr 2015 war sich die Arbeitsmarktökonomik weitgehend darin einig, dass dieses 'soziale Experiment' mit erheblichen Arbeitsplatzverlusten bezahlt werden müsste. Die Begleitforschung zur Mindestlohneinführung konnte dann...

Over the last decades, globalization has led to more integrated markets which fostered the transformation of economies around the world. How do domestic labor markets react to increased competition from abroad? This Policy Brief examines the effect of an import shock on the Mexican labor market...

Zu den wichtigsten Sicherheitsversprechen der Sozialpolitik gehört eine auskömmliche Rente. Doch schon heute erleben viele Menschen beim Übergang in die Rente erhebliche Einschränkungen ihres Lebensstandards, und die zukünftige Finanzierung des Sicherheitsversprechens wird kontrovers...

Nach Vorstellungen von SPD und Bündnis 90/Die Grünen sollte die Bürgergeld-Reform nicht weniger als der Abschied von "Hartz IV" sein, jener vor zwanzig Jahren von den beiden Parteien selbst ersonnenen, aber zusehends unbeliebteren Grundsicherung für Arbeitsuchende. Bei näherer Betrachtung...

Der Hauptgrund für die chronisch niedrige Erwerbsbeteiligung von Frauen im Vergleich zu Männern ist die "Child Penalty". Das Phänomen beschreibt die beruflichen Nachteile, die Frauen nach der Geburt des ersten Kindes erfahren, während Männer keine Einbußen verzeichnen. Wie beeinflusst...

Die Forderung nach einer Work-Life-Balance und der spürbare Arbeitskräftemangel haben die öffentliche Diskussion um Arbeitszeitveränderungen verstärkt. Kann sich die Gesellschaft eine allgemeine Absenkung der Arbeitszeit leisten oder sind vielmehr längere Arbeitszeiten vonnöten? Die...

The significant labour shortage in Germany could be alleviated if the domestic labour potential was better utilised. The most significant potential is found in part-time working women without children under the age of 14. If 50% of this group worked full time in the corresponding age groups, an...

Die Wachstumsaussichten für die Weltwirtschaft bleiben moderat. Das Welt-BIP dürfte in diesem Jahr um 3,0 % und im Jahr 2026 um 2,9 % zunehmen. Belastend wirkt dabei die Wirtschaftspolitik in den USA. Diese dürfte die Wachstumsdynamik sowohl in den USA als auch in anderen großen...

Die konjunkturelle Entwicklung rund um den Globus wird in diesem Jahr erheblich durch die zunehmende Fragmentierung der Weltwirtschaft und die geopolitischen Spannungen belastet. Dazu kommen permanente Verunsicherungen und Verwirrungen, was die gesamte Weltkonjunktur in einen...

Seit dem Beginn des russischen Angriffskriegs im Februar 2022 hat sich die ukrainische Wirtschaftsleistung stark verringert. Gemäß Schätzungen internationaler Organisationen belief sich das ukrainische BIP Ende 2024 auf real rund 77 Prozent des Vorkriegsniveaus. Hinzu kommen massive...