How would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rulesbased economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic...

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has triggered profound structural changes in the country's economy, reshaping patterns of foreign trade, foreign direct investment and sectoral specialisation. This paper analyses the shifts in Ukraine's trade and investment structures...

This study provides sector-level insights to inform energy strategies consistent with SDG 7 and SDG 13. Drawing on a panel of 43 emerging and developing economies (1998-2020), we estimate a GMM panel vector autoregression (PVAR) linking foreign direct investment, sectoral GDP, energy demand, and...

Whether China can avoid the middle-income trap has been the subject of extensive research. Currently classified as an upper middle-income country, China increasingly exhibits similar characteristics as countries currently experiencing the middle-income trap. However, using evidence from China's...

This paper analyses the role of loan guarantees in supporting the internationalisation of Indian firms through outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) since the mid-2000s. Despite a persistent domestic savings-investment gap and recurrent current account deficits, Indian OFDI has expanded...

Financial markets and foreign investments could play an effective role in determining the environment and income of GCC resource-rich economies. Therefore, the effects of Financial Market Development (FMD) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Carbon Intensity (CI) from oil, gas, gas flaring,...

This paper quantifies how demand and supply shocks transmit to yields in Colombia's sovereign bond market by estimating investor-level demand elasticities and translating them into equilibrium price effects. Using investor-security microdata and two complementary identification strategies, I...

Using administrative longitudinal firm- and plant-level data from Mexico that links manufacturing firms to their customs records and covers the period 2014 - 2023, I examine whether US tariffs targeting China have contributed to a manufacturing revival in the southern part of North America....

Germany has introduced a comprehensive package of staggered business tax breaks to accelerate business investment and give new momentum to economic growth. The key components of the so-called investment booster program are a temporary tax write-off on machinery and other equipment investments to...

Traditional theories of firm boundaries predict trade between vertically related units of the same firm. Using novel data that combine a comprehensive mapping of U.S. multinationals’ production networks with their customs filings, we uncover a strong positive relationship between input-output...

Foreign direct investment and the activities of multinational enterprises play an essential role in shaping employment outcomes, particularly in developing and emerging economies. With globalization and the expansion of global value chains, understanding how FDI influences labour markets has...

We describe a novel mechanism via which multinational enterprises (MNEs) can serve to propagate productivity and credit supply shocks across borders. We augment the costly-state-verification model of Bernanke et al. [1999] with the internal capital market constraint of an MNE to analyze the...

Background: Nearshoring has risen after shocks and policy shifts. We synthesize evidence in a compact loop linking triggers (trade frictions, supply-chain risk, new agreements) to location choices mediated by multidimensional proximity (geographic, institutional, organizational, social,...

Geoeconomic fragmentation - the phenomenon of international transactions being increasingly restricted to politically aligned partners - creates risks for individual countries but also opportunities that some hope to seize by becoming "connector" countries. We modify a standard trade model by...

In Latin America, Mexico (2020), Chile (2022) and Colombia (2022) have all officially committed to a feminist foreign policy (FFP). The introduction of a feminist approach to foreign policy should be seen in the context of a growing awareness of gender issues in international, regional and...