This paper studies how college major choices shape earnings and fertility outcomes. Using administrative data that link students' preferences, random assignment to majors, and post-college outcomes, we estimate the causal pecuniary and nonpecuniary returns to different fields of study. We...

This study investigates the impact of inflation on human capital investment decisions. Using a specially designed survey we estimate the causal effect of recent price level increases on the graduation plans of over 1,200 U.S. university students. We find that inflation caused over half of the...

We estimate monetary wage returns to academic-track education, Germany’s elite secondary school type granting university entrance. Because academic-track attendance and subsequent university education are institutionally linked, we disentangle their contributions using a causal mediation...

We study the distributional effects of remote learning using a novel approach combining preference data from a conjoint survey with administrative records. Experimentally derived preferences account for selection into remote learning and treatment effect heterogeneity. We validate the approach...

Do reciprocal workers have higher returns to employer-sponsored training? Using a field experiment with random assignment to training combined with survey information on workers' reciprocal inclinations, the results show that reciprocal workers reciprocate employers' training investments by...

This paper studies the long-term impacts of dual apprenticeships on youth employment in a high-informality labor market. A Randomized Controlled Trial in Côte d'Ivoire with four follow-up surveys collected over seven years shows that dual apprenticeships have sustained impacts: youth earnings...

This paper provides the first comprehensive, cross-country evidence on the wage returns to digital skills, using more than 67 million job postings from 29 countries between 2021 and 2024. The paper develops a harmonized digital skills taxonomy and examines returns across extensive (any digital...

This paper estimates the returns to education in Arkansas-one of the last states to extend compulsory schooling-using ACS 2023 data and the 1987 Compulsory Schooling Law (CSL) reform as an instrument. OLS estimates imply returns of 9.5-10.4 percent per year of schooling. The CSL reform increased...

This paper estimates the returns to education in Arkansas - one of the last states to extend compulsory schooling - using ACS 2023 data and the 1987 Compulsory Schooling Law (CSL) reform as an instrument. OLS estimates imply returns of 9.5-10.4 percent per year of schooling. The CSL reform...

International and Irish studies have indicated negative trends in the mental health and wellbeing of young people over recent years. Indeed, the most recent wave of the Health Behaviour of School-Aged Children study shows that Ireland ranked 24 out of 36 countries on overall adolescent mental...

International research has pointed to the longer-term impact of school absence on outcomes in early adulthood. This study uses Growing Up in Ireland data to document the consequences of absence in primary and post-primary education for a range of outcomes in (early) adulthood, including...

We estimate the long-run effects of marginal admission to elite public high schools on students' labor supply in the context of Mexico City's centralized high school admission system. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we compare students whose placement exam scores are just above and...

We estimate the causal effect of attending elite schools in England, Scotland, and Wales on human capital and labor market outcomes for cohorts of children from the 1958 National Child Development Study and the 1970 British Cohort Study. For identification, we employ a nonparametric...

We estimate the effect of receiving a higher grade on an academic high school exit exam on labor-market outcomes in adulthood. Identification is based on comparing students on different sides of grade cutoffs. Using nationwide Finnish register data, we find that better grades lead to higher...

We investigate the factors influencing the intended college major choices of high school students in Italy, ranking the relative importance of expected earnings, perceived ability, and major-specific tastes, that we measure directly using a Coller and Williams game. We find that major-specific...

This paper studies the relative importance of teacher-student match effects and general teacher effectiveness in producing student learning, and quantifies gains from alternative teacher assignments. We estimate a framework that separates these components, allowing match quality to vary with...

We provide the first national descriptive analysis of the economic value of Community College Baccalaureate (CCB) degrees by examining graduates' early-career earnings, the costs of completing these programs, and the alignment between field of study and subsequent employment. Using...

This study investigates the impact of inflation on human capital investment decisions. Using a specially designed survey we estimate the causal effect of recent price level increases on the graduation plans of over 1,200 U.S. university students. We find that inflation caused over half of the...

Do second chances at a high-stakes admission exam yield long-term gains? Leveraging fifteen years of Chilean administrative data and an RDD, we examine the causal effects of retaking on educational and labor market trajectories. Narrowly missing a preferred program cutoff triggers a 44% increase...

This study investigates gender differences in labor market outcomes among highly educated individuals in Japan, emphasizing heterogeneity by fields of study, with a focus on STEM. Using data from the Japanese Panel Study of Employment Dynamics (JPSED), we find that women with STEM degrees begin...

The educational distribution of U.S. immigrants shifted significantly to the right in recent decades as the share without a high school diploma fell and the share with a bachelor's degree rose. This improvement coincided with a shift in immigrants' origins toward Asia and rising global education...

This study is the first to analyse the determinants and wage impacts of vertical educational mismatches in the wage sector in Indonesia. This study is also the first to examine the wage effect of vertical educational mismatch based on the fields of study, gender, and spatial conditions of the...

An extensive literature has documented the incentive effect of emigration prospects in terms of human capital accumulation at origin. Less attention has been paid to the impact on specific educational choices. Using novel data from graduates from the University of Lorraine (France) we find that...

Whether targeted foundational instruction yields broad, long-term human capital gains is central to education policy but largely untested. We provide causal evidence from Zambia's government-run foundational skills program in public primary schools. After two years, a randomized trial shows the...

How do students' earnings expectations differ by being the first in their family to attend university (FiF) and how do they affect field of study choice? We leverage unique survey and administrative data to document sizable gaps in expected earnings between FiF and non-FiF students. Our data can...

This paper examines the private returns to education in the context of heterogeneous labour markets, using Peru as a case study. While education is widely considered a key driver of individual earnings and economic growth, its actual returns may be constrained by structural features of labour...

Given data on a scalar random variable 𝑌, a prediction set for 𝑌 with miscoverage level 𝛼 is a set of values for 𝑌 that contains a randomly drawn 𝑌 with probability 1 - 𝛼, where 𝛼 ∈ (0, 1). Among all prediction sets that satisfy this coverage property, the oracle...

We analyze the initial job-market matching of new US college graduates with a large-scale audit study conducted during 2016 and 2017, in which 36,880 résumés of college seniors were submitted to online job postings for business-related positions. We simulate the experience of US college...

This study examines the impact of economic conditions at college entry on post-graduation labor market outcomes, focusing on behavioral responses related to job market preparation and career advancement. Exploiting variation in regional unemployment rates within college entry cohorts, we utilize...

This paper analyzes the effects of the COVID-19 recession on the rate of return to schooling for twenty industries in Pennsylvania. Using data from the American Community Survey 2011-2021, we find the rate of return to schooling declined by 0.3 percentage points during COVID years from its...

This paper studies how college major choices shape earnings and fertility outcomes. Using administrative data that link students’ preferences, random assignment to majors, and post-college outcomes, the researchers estimate the causal pecuniary and non-pecuniary returns to different fields of...

This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the long-term effects of work-study programs, leveraging a randomized lottery design from a national program in Uruguay. Participation leads to a persistent 11 percent increase in formal labor earnings seven years after the program, driven...

In Poland, between 2005 and 2019, the share of the employed with tertiary education among men increased by about 10 percentage points and among women by about 18 percentage points. We study the impact of this change on relative income poverty and income inequality using a microsimulation...