imely assessment of regional economic activity in Ukraine is severely constrained by institutional and data-related limitations. Official regional gross regional product (GRP) statistics are available only at low frequency, are published with substantial delays, and, in the post-2022 period, are...

This paper provides a critical examination of the empirical basis of the output convergence debate in the light of recent developments in the analysis of dynamic heterogeneous panels with interactive effects. It shows that popular tools such as Barro's cross-country regressions and two-way fixed...

This research aimed to identify existence of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Vietnam. The examined period was 2012Q2 - 2025Q2, using secondary macroeconomics data and the Generalised Moments Method at 95% level of confidence. The dependent variables were price inflation and wage inflation,...

Forecasts that minimize mean squared forecast error (MSE) often exhibit excessive volatility, limiting their practical applicability. We address this accuracy smoothness trade-off by introducing a Multivariate Smooth Sign Accuracy (M-SSA) framework, which extracts smoothed components from...

This paper makes the case for measuring economic activity in real time in a middle-income setting using indicators alternative to the standard System of National Accounts measure of gross domestic product (GDP). GDP remains indispensable, yet its limits as a welfare proxy are amplified where...

We examine the state dependence of monetary policy transmission and the parameters of the Phillips curve, dynamic IS equation, and Taylor rule across four regimes defined by joint deviations of inflation from the Federal Reserve's target and output from potential. The analysis uncovers important...

Comparison of economies is essential for public policymaking but considerably hindered by the fact that statistics expressed in local currencies are not directly comparable. Market exchange rates give a distorted view, as they do not reflect the differences in price levels between countries.To...

The literature on growth dependencies increasingly calls for post-growth welfare states capable of functioning without reliance on GDP growth in order to remain within planetary limits. Yet empirical research on the relationship between welfare state arrangements and economic growth remains...

This paper develops a nowcasting model to produce timely estimates of quarterly GDP growth for Kenya. Nowcasting combines official monthly indicators with digital transaction data. Exploiting strong comovement of macroeconomic time series, a few latent factors summarize aggregate dynamics and...

Cambodia is not alone in facing capacity limitations in the production and timely release of key official statistics needed for data-driven policy decisions. This paper demonstrates that combining satellite-derived indicators (e.g., nighttime lights, NO₂ emissions, vegetation indices) with...

This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in construction productivity on cross-country income disparity. Using a sample of 168 countries, we estimate the 10:1 spread in construction productivity as a factor of 49-fold in 2017. The construction productivity gap falls by 46 percent...

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has long been used as a proxy for human progress, despite growing recognition of its limitations. Recently, numerous "beyond GDP" initiatives have emerged, promoting multidimensional dashboards to assess quality of life. However, these often lack a clear headline...

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has long been used as a proxy for human progress, despite growing recognition of its limitations. Recently, numerous "beyond GDP" initiatives have emerged, promoting multidimensional dashboards to assess quality of life. However, these often lack a clear headline...

Geopolitische Verwerfungen und die damit verbundene wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit treffen Liechtenstein früher und stärker als seine grösseren Nachbarn. Während das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im europäischen Vergleich sehr sensitiv auf solche Zäsuren reagiert, erweist sich der heimische...

This study examines the short-run dynamics and long-run determinants of bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Jordan during the period of 1995-2024 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Employing a country-pair time series framework, the analysis...

We present a country-specific measure of supply chain disruptions and compare it with a global counterpart. We identify each measure's macroeconomic role and consider a sectoral extension using the two-digit NACE level of disaggregation and a multi-sector general equilibrium model to assess the...

In the modern globalized context, innovation represents a key driver of economic growth, while international trade plays an important role in fostering it. This study examines the relationship between the degree of trade openness and innovation performance across 27 EU member states over the...

We study the interconnection between the productivity and pricing effects of financial shocks. Combining administrative records on firm-level output prices and quantities with quasi-experimental variation in credit supply, we show that a tightening of credit conditions has a persistent, yet...

Der Produktionsindex für die Gesamtwirtschaft ist ein neuer zusammengesetzter Konjunkturindikator. Er kombiniert vier Konjunkturindizes, die den größten Teil der Gewerblichen Wirtschaft abdecken: die Produktionsindizes für die Industrie, das Baugewerbe, den Dienstleistungssektor sowie den...

Die Weltwirtschaft ist derzeit von handelspolitischen Schocks und hoher Unsicherheit geprägt. Im Prognosezeitraum wird der Welthandel in Folge der schwächeren Weltkonjunktur und der bestehenden Handelskonflikte nur sehr verhalten expandieren. Er wird in diesem Jahr um 1,9 % und im kommenden...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft und der Arbeitsmarkt entwickeln sich seit drei Jahren schwach. Die Fiskalpakete werden die Konjunktur zwar beleben, die Beschäftigungsentwicklung stößt aber an Grenzen. Der Kurzbericht gibt einen Ausblick auf die Jahre 2025 und 2026.

Der Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland ist weiterhin durch Stagnation gekennzeichnet. Bundesweit bleiben Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit 2026 im Vergleich zu 2025 nahezu unverändert. Auf Ebene der Bundesländer und der Agenturbezirke zeigen sich teilweise positive Entwicklungen, die jedoch bisher...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist im Herbst 2025 nach einer mehrjährigen Rezession zwiegespalten zwischen einer aufwärtsgerichteten Binnenkonjunktur und einem bremsenden Außenhandel. So liefert die Binnennachfrage einen Wachstumsbeitrag in Höhe von 1,7 % für das BIP im laufenden Jahr. Jedoch wird...