Die Bundesländer und die Arbeitsmarktregionen in Deutschland unterscheiden sich in ihrer Bevölkerungs- und Wirtschaftsstruktur, weshalb sie auch unterschiedliche Arbeitskräfteengpässe und -überhänge aufweisen. Aufgrund ihrer verschiedenartigen Entwicklungen werden auch künftig...

Durch den demografischen Wandel – insbesondere den Eintritt der Babyboomer ins Rentenalter – drohen massive Finanzierungsprobleme in der deutschen Rentenversicherung, da immer weniger Erwerbstätige für immer mehr Rentnerinnen und Rentner aufkommen müssen. Reformen der Vergangenheit haben...

Wie sich die Platzbedarfe in Kitas und Schulen entwickeln, hängt vorwiegend von der demografischen Ausgangslage in den Regionen ab. Diese wird wiederum maßgeblich vom Verlauf der Geburtenzahlen bestimmt. Hier unterscheiden sich die ehemaligen beiden deutschen Staaten auch mehr als drei...

Von den knapp 35 Millionen sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten in Deutschland sind über 8 Millionen mindestens 55 Jahre alt. Sie gehen voraussichtlich in den nächsten zehn bis zwölf Jahren in Rente. Noch nie in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik war dieser Anteil an Altersabgängen so...

Die vorliegende Studie betrachtet die regionalen Unterschiede im Beschäftigungswachstum und ihre Einflussfaktoren im Zeitraum zwischen 1999 und 2023 mit einem Fokus auf SchleswigHolstein und seine Kreise und kreisfreien Städte. In diesem Zeitraum hat sich die Zahl der...

Fertility rates have declined dramatically across almost all highincome countries over the past decades. This has raised concerns about future economic prospects. Indeed, fully- and semi-endogenous growth models imply that a shrinking workforce would lead to declining income growth and perhaps...

The European Union is experiencing profound demographic shifts. This paper presents an analysis of observed population trends encompassing observations for the period 2000-2022 and projections until 2040 at the NUTS3 level. The projections were obtained by regionalizing the 2021 Ageing Report's...

The European Union is projected to enter a period of population decline after 2026, with implications for economic development and labour markets, though these will vary because of different trends in different EU countries. Between 2023 and 2050, Eastern and Southern EU countries will face the...

This paper relates to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 and 13. We uniquely investigate a population growth-energy-emissions persistence trilemma in Africa. This study contributes to the literature and policymaking by determining the effect of population growth and energy...

While the Draghi report primarily focuses on increasing labour productivity, it also makes a compelling case for mitigating the decline in the workforce by using the untapped potential of labour force participation and employment. Forward-looking analyses of the EU labour force require taking...

The EU population is set to decline due to lasting low levels of fertility in the near future. Without migration from third Countries, the EU population would have started to decline already about a decade ago. However, the demographic landscape across Member States is complex: migration is...

What sparked humanity's leap from stagnation to prosperity? What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Unified Growth Theory explores the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history. It uncovers the universal wheels of change that have governed the journey of humanity,...

We propose new ways to measure populism, using the Manifesto Project Database (1960- 2019) as main source of data. We characterize the evolution of populism over 60 years and show empirically that it is significantly impacted by the skill-content of globalization. Specifically, imports of goods...

As the baby boomer generation enters retirement, the payas-you-go pension system in Germany is under an increasing amount of pressure. Relevant changes, in particular higher contribution rates or lower pension levels, are causing tension between generations: Either the financial burden on the...

This study investigates the role of savings as a channel for the second demographic dividend in minimum comparable areas (MCA) in Brazil between 2000 and 2010. Using spatial econometric models, the research analyzed the effects of per capita savings, education, and labor force participation on...

Die vorliegende Studie betrachtet die regionalen Unterschiede im Beschäftigungswachstum und ihre Einflussfaktoren im Zeitraum zwischen 1999 und 2023 mit einem Fokus auf SchleswigHolstein und seine Kreise und kreisfreien Städte. In diesem Zeitraum hat sich die Zahl der...

Wie sich die Platzbedarfe in Kitas und Schulen entwickeln, hängt vorwiegend von der demografischen Ausgangslage in den Regionen ab. Diese wird wiederum maßgeblich vom Verlauf der Geburtenzahlen bestimmt. Hier unterscheiden sich die ehemaligen beiden deutschen Staaten auch mehr als drei...

Europe's demographic shift is putting increasing pressure on long-term care (LTC) systems and raising concerns about the sustainability of LTC financing. This paper analyses Austria's LTC system, particularly its universal long-term care allowance (LTCA), and uses a dynamic microsimulation model...

Kuznets predicts an economy's return to low inequality once structural transformation has peaked. I explore some headwinds to falling inequality in developing countries given their thorough engagement in the globalized market Kuznets could not have foreseen. Headwinds include plutocrats' abuse...

This study examines how economic growth, travel, global connection, and changes in population impact the environmental footprint in seven countries, including Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, and India, from 1995 to 2023. The results show a significant link between Granger’s...

We estimate the future demand for public school classrooms using new school children population projections for 82 provinces and 33 urbanized cities of the Philippines up to 2060. A return to replacement-level fertility from the current 1.9 total fertility rate (TFR) is expected to ease demand...

This report examines the demographic elements associated with the "right to stay" concept, as introduced by Enrico Letta. It has a particular focus on how demographic decline and migration patterns intersect and influence one another at European, national, regional and local levels. The findings...

Grandparents are an integral part of family support systems, serving as both providers and consumers of instrumental, financial, and emotional care. They also play a central role in transmitting cultural and financial capital to their grandchildren. Grandparenting, which refers to the care,...

In countries with incomplete vital registration, contemporary mortality estimation models such as the log-quadratic model the and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)-Comp model often produce sizable errors, particularly at prime adult ages (20-45) and older ages (70+), where mortality varies...

Recent tourism gentrification has been attributed to an increase in extreme short-term rentals through P2P digital platforms. Although many tourist cities have implemented regulations on short-term rentals, several studies have shown the ineffectiveness of those regulations. This study aimed to...

This paper identifies existing labour market challenges associated with ageing in Europe and Central Asia. It presents a general overview and provides ideas to stimulate social dialogue. In 2024, there were 28 persons aged 65 years and above per 100 persons aged 15 to 64 years and this ratio is...