The COVID-19 pandemic constitutes one of the most significant exogenous shocks to global financial markets in recent history, raising questions about the robustness of market efficiency under extreme uncertainty. This study examines whether the pandemic affected the weak-form efficiency of the...

Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only federally licensed prediction market in the United States. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 contracts, we provide the first systematic evidence on its pricing. Kalshi's contract prices are informative and improve in accuracy as markets...

This paper investigates the relationship among transaction taxes, high-frequency trading (HFT), and market quality. We use the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to dynamically assess the impact of transaction taxes on market quality with and without high-frequency trading. Preliminary tests...

Heterogeneous beliefs among market participants can lead to questionable speculative trading that goes beyond any risk-sharing motives. We demonstrate that such unwarranted betting behavior in market equilibrium can be mitigated by introducing nonlinear pricing for ambiguous contracts, without...

We argue that capital misallocation arises endogenously due to incomplete consumption insurance. We model risk-averse entrepreneurs with heterogeneous productivity who face idiosyncratic output shocks and choose how much capital to rent before uncertainty unfolds. We show that incomplete markets...

While sports betting markets share similarities with traditional financial markets, they are more accessible for empirical research thanks to availability of high-quality data, straightforward betting procedures, and the finite duration of events. As a result, they are often analyzed for market...

Most financial assets are digital today. Tomorrow, they may be tokenized. Tokenization implies recording and transferring assets on a widely shared and trusted digital ledger that can be programmed. Interest in tokenization is strong and experiments abound, but what are the consequences of this...

The capital markets are sensitive to geopolitical events. It is important to provide evidence of reactions to specific geopolitical events in order to identify general patterns and effective risk management strategies. This study follows the event study approach to assess the reactions of...

This paper explores the impact of bank transparency on market efficiency by comparing banks that disclose supervisory capital requirements to those that remain opaque. Due to the informational content of supervisory capital requirements for the market this opacity might hinder market efficiency....

Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only federally licensed prediction market in the United States. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 contracts, we provide the first systematic evidence on its pricing. Kalshi's contract prices are informative and improve in accuracy as markets...

This study provides a comprehensive assessment and synthesis of the literature on short-selling. It performs a lexicometric analysis, providing a quantitative review of 1093 peer-reviewed journal articles to identify and illustrate the main themes in short-selling research. Almost half the...

This paper investigates the time-varying efficiency of Western European stock markets and examines how macroeconomic events defined as endogenous and exogenous shocks influence the degree of efficiency by either long-range dependence or mean reverting. We apply a rolling-window detrended...

This study investigates the effect of the annual "No-Smoking Day" on the stock performance of British American Tobacco (BATS) and Imperial Brands (IMB) from 1997 to 2023. Our findings reveal a significant negative impact of No-Smoking Wednesdays on BATS, with a moderate but statistically...

This paper examines the impact of complex yet precise language, particularly financial jargon, on information dissemination and ultimately market efficiency. As a natural laboratory, we analyze the information exchanged during earnings conference calls, where we instrument jargon with the Plain...

Due to the smoothing problem with appraisal-based indices, there is uncertainty about the true volatility of value change returns on real estate markets. The selection of unsmoothing procedures proposed in the literature obviously cannot remedy this. The article argues that it is hardly possible...

Comparing the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Behavioral Finance, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH), which identifies the extremes of these two hypotheses and adapts them to each other, argues that calendar anomalies can coexist, but also focuses on how investor behavior reacts to changing...

This paper explores the impact of bank transparency on market efficiency by comparing banks that disclose supervisory capital requirements to those that remain opaque. Due to the informational content of supervisory capital requirements for the market this opacity might hinder market efficiency....