Despite decades of global attention, effective climate policy implementation remains challenging, with firms and investors often grappling with uncertainty about potential policymaking in addition to actual policy changes. This paper introduces a novel Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) index,...

Earnings uncertainty is central to most heterogeneous-household models. Yet, there is surprisingly little evidence on how subjective uncertainty is related to consumption behavior. Using unique data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show that the marginal propensity to consume (MPC)...

Earnings uncertainty is central to most heterogeneous-household models. Yet, there is surprisingly little evidence on how subjective uncertainty is related to consumption behavior. Using unique data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show that the marginal propensity to consume (MPC)...

Gallice and Monzón (2019) present a natural environment that sustains full cooperation in one-shot social dilemmas among a finite number of self-interested agents. They demonstrate that in a sequential public goods game, where agents lack knowledge of their position in the sequence but can...

This study applies the concept of regret in decision-making under uncertainty to an energy system optimization model to identify optimal robust and stochastic solutions amongst several design options. The approach is demonstrated on the case study of Accra, Ghana, considering uncertainties...

The economies of fossil fuel exporters are threatened by global efforts to transition away from using unabated fossil fuels. Producing clean hydrogen, for export or domestic use in manufacturing, provides a potentially major opportunity to continue exploiting their fossil fuel resources....

Mental models help people navigate complex environments. This paper studies how people deal with model uncertainty. In an experiment, participants estimate a company's value, facing uncertainty about which one of two models correctly deter- mines its true value. Using a between-subjects design,...

Recent scholarly discussions suggest the potential superiority of intuition over analysis in tasks with high equivocality. However, it remains unclear when and whether intuition is preferable when both uncertainty and equivocality are considered. Addressing this gap, the article introduces a...

Mental models help people navigate complex environments. This paper studies how people deal with model uncertainty. In an experiment, participants estimate a company's value, facing uncertainty about which one of two models correctly determines its true value. Using a between-subjects design, we...

This paper examines efficient allocations in economies where consumers exhibit heterogeneous smooth ambiguity preferences and face model uncertainty with a common set of identifiable models. Aggregate endowment is ambiguous. We characterize economies where the representative consumer is of the...

In this work, we study a class of stationary mean-field games of singular stochastic control under model uncertainty. The representative agent adjusts the dynamics of an Itô-diffusion via onesided singular stochastic control, aiming to maximize a long-term average expected profit criterion. The...

We introduce a novel experimental framework, the two-ball Ellsberg gamble, which allows us to explore a wider range of possible drivers of ambiguity attitudes than usually considered by the literature. In an incentivized experiment on a representative sample from the US with 708 participants, we...

In the growing social commerce landscape, addressing seller uncertainty has become critical for fostering consumer trust and enhancing purchase decisions. Seller uncertainty, often driven by information asymmetry and a lack of trust signals, can significantly hinder transactions on these...

Escalating uncertainty and policy shifts are reshaping the fiscal outlook. Global public debt projections have been revised upwards, while tariffs, uncertainty and market volatility, increased defense spending, and challenging foreign aid are intensifying risks. Countries must implement gradual...

Interrelated global crises - climate change, pandemics, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity - pose risks that demand collective solutions. Uncertainty about others' behavior, coupled with the dependence on some to take collective efforts to mitigate risks for all (e.g. conservation of...

Heterogeneous beliefs among market participants can lead to questionable speculative trading that goes beyond any risk-sharing motives. We demonstrate that such unwarranted betting behavior in market equilibrium can be mitigated by introducing nonlinear pricing for ambiguous contracts, without...

The aim of this study is to analyze the factors that influence consumer referents or reference points and their interaction during the decision-making process, along with the principles of prospect theory in the metaverse with market and retail examples. We conducted an integrative literature...

In this study, we address the ambiguity in portfolio optimization, particularly focusing on the uncertainty related to the statistical parameters governing asset returns. We propose a novel method that combines robust optimization with artificial neural networks (ANNs). Our approach effectively...

This study examined how uncertainty and global risk affect financial markets in emerging economies, focusing on foreign investment, CDS spreads, exchange rates, and stock return volatility. Using over 8.6 million ticker transaction observations and structural vector autoregression (VAR) models,...