Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump’s second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

The EU Methane Regulation (MER), effective as of August 4, 2024, introduces new obligations for domestically produced and imported crude oil, natural gas, and coal. While compliance with new import requirements primarily falls on European Union (EU) importers, their ability to meet them hinges...

This research models and examines multiple decarbonisation pathways for Europe to 2050, evaluating trade-offs between emissions reductions, costs, and implications for gas demand. Scenarios that front-load decarbonisation to 2040 show prohibitively high marginal abatement costs, while a more...

Despite the formal absence of sanctions, gas trade between Russia and the EU has effectively collapsed over the past three and a half years. This has been the outcome of several factors: the EU strategy of reducing dependence on Russian gas, Russia's own supply cuts, physical damage to the...

Following the Paris Agreement, economic development demands energy services while reducing emissions. This study focuses on non-residential natural gas consumption, which plays a crucial role in the energy transition; however, market-based mechanisms are still in the early stages and have not...

Der Terrorangriff der Hamas vom 7. Oktober 2023 und die darauffolgende israelische Militärintervention im Gaza-Streifen bedeuten auch eine Zäsur für die Beziehungen zwischen Ägypten und Israel. Diese wurden während der Präsidentschaft Abdel Fattah al-Sisis im wirtschaftlichen und...

This gas-focused edition of the Oxford Energy Forum updates the scorecard on the key issues driving medium to long-term gas demand prospects in key consuming countries. Whether it is European climate policy and the regulation of decarbonized gases, the demand outlook for Asian industrial...

This paper uses a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) framework to estimate the pass-through of unexpected gas price supply shocks on HICP inflation in the euro area and its four largest economies. In comparison to oil price shocks, gas price shocks have approximately one-third...

European Union legislation obliges natural gas transmission system operators to publish key transport indicators on a transparency platform operated by the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG). Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) maintains similar transparency...

This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The...

The spread of natural gas in the main international natural gas markets shows characteristics of violent fluctuation, frequent mutation, and periodic evolution, which pose a great challenge to the safety and sustainable development of natural gas in China. First, this paper used the complete...

The market for internationally traded gas has now globalized, assisted by the advent of US LNG from the Lower-48. The volume of flexible LNG has increased sharply since 2016 and was instrumental in the diversion of LNG cargoes to Europe, following the loss of Russian pipeline gas in 2022. In a...

Oil and gas revenues have underpinned the Russian economy for decades. As a result, they are an obvious target for sanctions from countries wishing to punish Russia for the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, the impact of hydrocarbons from Russia on the...

Large parts of the existing natural gas distribution networks must be decommissioned due to the decarbonization of the heat supply. However, there are neither regulatory nor economic incentives for the gas network operators to do so and delaying the decommissioning could be expensive for the...

This paper argues for a change in government attitudes to their extractive industries: as enclaves useful primarily as revenue sources. This is too narrow a perspective: it fails to recognize the broader economic linkages that are invariably possible. Achieving greater economic impact requires...

This paper analyses the risks facing resource-dependent countries. These include: (i) economic mismanagement (the 'resource curse'); (ii) political mismanagement; (iii) environmental damage (climate change and the destruction of natural capital). It distinguishes 'risk' (which can be addressed...

The extractives industries are highly controversial but remain vitally important in much of the developing world. This paper considers their role in reducing energy poverty and discusses scenarios for the future of the global markets for oil, gas, and metals (emphasizing the increasing...

The current geopolitical landscape, exemplified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has heightened concerns about energy security. This study delves into the nexus of energy security and natural gas utilization in the Czech Republic, offering a thorough analysis amid these turbulent times....

This study explores the structural shifts in Europe’s energy landscape following the loss of over one-third of its natural gas supplies due to the conflict in Ukraine, effectively severing the traditional natural gas trade “bridge” between Russia and Europe. Amidst Europe’s deep...

On 11 April 2024 the European Parliament adopted the Renewable and Natural Gases and Hydrogen (RNGH) Directive and the RNGH Regulation – otherwise known as the Decarbonised Gas and Hydrogen Package – and published both documents on 12 April 2024. Once approved by the Council and published in...

Companies in the oil, gas, and mining sectors face ever intensifying scrutiny over their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices and impacts: from civil society but also from investment funds and other stakeholders with ESG mandates. Companies with good practices-and the paper...

This paper analyses the roles that states, civil society, and international actors can play in tackling the weak governance that sometimes leads to resources being used for private rather than public benefit. It discusses the corruption that bedevils licensing and commodities trading; and oil...

The German electricity market has recovered well from the 2022 energy crisis. Policymakers should now redirect the focus of energy policy to further expanding renewable energy sources. The year 2023 showed that the German electricity supply remained secure following the shutdown of nuclear power...

As a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine, natural gas prices skyrocketed in 2022 and Germany in particular felt the impact of its strong dependency on Russia. Prices have since relaxed, the European natural gas industry has overcome the uncertainty due to the energy crisis in 2022, and the...

We propose a structural vector-autoregressive model for the German natural gas market to investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. We combine conventional and narrative sign restrictions to leverage information about supply cuts for identification and find...

We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while...

Natural gas is a major fuel in Peru, accounting for nearly 45 % of all energy sources used to generate electricity. This research aims to analyze the dynamic association between economic growth and natural gas consumption (NGC), considering Peru's trade openness (Tr) from 1965 to 2022. The...

The reduction of the EU's pipeline gas imports from Russia because of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the bloc. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU...

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) gas exporters are facing long-term market and regulatory challenges in Europe. The near three-year continuous decline in Europe’s gas demand since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis is a key challenge for these exporters who are concerned about whether this...

We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while...

In the aftermath of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and rising gas prices, the "gas Price brake" was implemented in Germany. We employ a difference-in-differences Approach and analyze data on offered gas contracts from two countries with comparable gas markets, where one country (Germany) has...

European gas markets experienced a very turbulent period from 2020 to 2022, which led to the lowest ever northwest European gas prices at the end of May 2020, then several strong rallies led to four successive ‘highest ever’ prices, the most recent being in August 2022. After each of those...

Der Terrorangriff der Hamas vom 7. Oktober 2023 und die darauffolgende israelische Militärintervention im Gaza-Streifen bedeuten auch eine Zäsur für die Beziehungen zwischen Ägypten und Israel. Diese wurden während der Präsidentschaft Abdel Fattah al-Sisis im wirtschaftlichen und...