As a cornerstone of the modern financial safety net, the Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) is essential in mitigating liquidity crises and containing financial contagion. However, during periods of economic stability, risk-taking incentives in the banking sector may undermine its effectiveness. Using...

We study how global supply chain disruptions affect monetary policy transmission. Post-pandemic evidence indicates surging transportation costs, goods-market imbalances, and rising prices. We develop a model in which logistical bottlenecks (upstream slack coexisting with downstream shortages)...

The global transition toward renewable energy is vital for achieving climate goals and strengthening energy security. The primary objective of the study is to examine the impact of different stances of monetary policy, namely price-based, quantity-based, and outcome-based monetary policy, on...

Households often struggle to understand policy interventions, limiting the effectiveness of policy transmission. We study how economic policy signals reach and influence households, focusing on the role of professional economists as interpretive intermediaries. When policy signals are complex...

We examine the changing attention that ECB Governing Council members pay to different policy objectives by analysing more than 4,600 speeches given between the establishment of the ECB and the summer of 2024. Alongside the primary objective of price stability, we consider the following potential...

This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental monetary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a...

Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) are a widely used tool for assessing the broader monetary policy stance beyond the central bank's direct control. This paper presents a novel vector autoregressive (VAR) model that includes key macroeconomic variables and maps financial variables into a single...

We document a novel transmission channel of monetary policy through the homeowners insurance market. On average, contractionary monetary policy shocks result in higher homeowners insurance prices. Using granular data on insurers' balance sheets, we show that this effect is driven by the...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global risk shocks (GRS) in a small open economy and their implications for the identification of monetary policy shocks. I construct a novel proxy for GRS based on unexpected daily innovations in the VIX and employ it as an external instrument in...

Using survey data from Austrian households, this paper examines how personality traits influence households' inflation expectations. We measure the Big Five personality traits and show they explain 70 % more of the differences in expectations than sociodemographic factors like age and income...

Evidence since the XIX century shows that whereas the demand for M1 is uniformly stable (Benati, Lucas, Nicolini, and Weber, 2021), the demand for broader aggregates is stable under monetary regimes making inflation strongly mean-reverting-such as the Gold Standard and inflation-targeting-but it...

This paper examines the interaction between quantitative easing (QE) and the securities lending facility (SLF) using a detailed dataset on Riksbank QE purchases, Swedish DMO SLF transactions and OTC repo deals. A theoretical model further shows how excess demand for assets and search frictions...

I study price level determination in a currency union when some member countries' government securities earn a convenience yield. These "convenience assets" generate fiscal seigniorage revenues that, given appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, back the union's price level, much like primary...

We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together...

The predictability of monetary policy surprises based on past, public information has been interpreted in two related yet fundamentally different ways. The "Fed information effect" posits that it arises due to markets updating their view of the economy, based on signals implicitly revealed by...

Programmability is at the heart of ongoing work on the future of money and payments by central banks around the world. Despite its potential, there is growing concern that programmability conflicts with the provision of "good" money. This paper overviews key principles of "good" money and argues...

Mit 2,2 % lag die deutsche Inflationsrate im Jahr 2025 leicht über dem EZB-Ziel von 2 %. Im Dezember 2025 fiel sie jedoch auf 1,8 %, was tonangebend für die Entwicklung in diesem Jahr sein dürfte. Dabei dämpften die Energiepreise 2025 im Jahresdurchschnitt mit -2,4 % stärker als zum...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global copper supply shocks. We identify exogenous disruptions to copper supply using a Bayesian structural VAR of the world copper market that combines sign and narrative restrictions. We then trace the international transmission of the identified...

This paper examines how fiscal policy in the euro area reacts to monetary policy, by estimating fiscal policy reaction functions for the period 1999-2019. Inclusion of the monetary policy stance in the fiscal reaction function, approximated by a shadow interest rate, is a relatively novel aspect...

We study the spillovers of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) in the U.S. on financial intermediation in the euro area using bank-level supervisory data and high-frequency identified policy surprises. Our detailed panel data permit us to trace the impact of LSAPs through bank balance sheets. We...

Unlike past high-inflation episodes, the euro area labour market remained surprisingly resilient during the inflation surge of the early 2020s. This paper investigates the drivers of this resilience by combining long-span euro area macroeconomic data (1970-2025) with a structural VAR analysis...

This paper estimates Morocco's natural interest rate (NIR) using two approaches: a standard HLW-type framework and an augmented specification that incorporates external factors, namely imported inflation, and movements in the real effective exchange rate. The results point to a downward trend in...