We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and...

Durch den Ukraine-Krieg und die Entscheidung, auf russisches Pipelinegas zu verzichten, wurde Flüssigerdgas (LNG) zu einem Hauptpfeiler der Energieversorgung Deutschlands und der EU. Die europäische Nachfrage hat die Globalisierung des LNG-Marktes beschleunigt und fördert zugleich...

Durch den Ukraine-Krieg und die Entscheidung, auf russisches Pipelinegas zu verzichten, wurde Flüssigerdgas (LNG) zu einem Hauptpfeiler der Energieversorgung Deutschlands und der EU. Die europäische Nachfrage hat die Globalisierung des LNG-Marktes beschleunigt und fördert zugleich...

Geoeconomic pressure - the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic ends - has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of...

Two phenomena are increasingly reshaping the world economy. One is the growing and well-documented importance of climate transition policies that differ across countries. The other is the stark rise of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) concerns. While differences in climate transition policies are...

Global events and geopolitical upheavals, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the US-China trade conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, have propelled the world towards geoeconomic fragmentation. This trend is exemplified by shifts away from free trade and globally integrated supply chains in favour of...

In sheer quantity, the five original BRICS countries appear impressive. They account for a substantial share of the world's population, economy, trade and muster large militaries. In January 2024, BRICS gained even more steam, by admitting four new member states that participated in the most...

This paper explores the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on the energy transition in the Global North, a region historically responsible for high greenhouse gas emissions yet crucial in addressing climate change. Recent policy shifts away from economic integration have raised concerns about...

In view of increasing geopolitical tensions, the economic consequences and costs of wars on the global economy are increasingly coming into focus. In their Kiel Policy Brief, the authors examine the costs of more than 150 wars since 1870. In the immediate theaters of war alone, real GDP falls by...

Dieser Policy Brief gibt einen Überblick und Einschätzungen zu Debatten über Entwicklungspolitik. Angesichts veränderter internationaler Kontexte behandelt er die Notwendigkeit, die deutsche Entwicklungspolitik langfristig neu auszurichten und Reformen anzustoßen. Formuliert werden fünf...

What explains the US dollar's role in the global economy and the tensions affecting its likely persistence? Most analyses start from Triffin's dilemma, which accurately captured specific but partial tensions of a global monetary system based on essentially fixed exchange rates, gold backing for...

The global economic environment has changed fundamentally over the past decade. Growing protectionism and geoeconomic tensions pose a major challenge, especially for the EU, whose foundations are based on openness, multilateralism, and cooperation. This policy brief presents four basic...

Purpose - This research aims to offers a new method for assessing geoeconomic risks in bilateral relations and evaluate the level of such risks from Vietnam's economic dependency on China. Design/methodology/approach - I apply descriptive analysis to identify asymmetrical dependency in...

We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) - that is, inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition - might affect value added at different levels of...

Geoeconomic fragmentation is on the rise amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and a surge in inward-looking policies to strengthen economic and national security. Focusing on trade and capital flows, this paper takes a closer look at the implications of geoeconomic fragmentation for the...

We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and...

As compared to the earlier generations of mobile communications (1G to 4G), the fifth one (5G) is a major business, regulatory, and technical discontinuity. Furthermore, unlike the previous generations, 5G is also much more of a geopolitical and geoeconomic battleground. These shifts are neither...

Angesichts zunehmender geopolitischer Spannungen rücken die wirtschaftlichen Folgen und Kosten von Kriegen auf die Weltwirtschaft verstärkt in den Fokus. In Ihrem Kiel Policy Brief untersuchen die Autoren die Kosten von mehr als 150 Kriegen seit 1870. Alleine auf den unmittelbaren...

The idea behind the BRICS began as a pure economic concept to acknowledge the growing weight of some major emerging economies. However, when it became a reality, it has evolved into a highly political - and less economic - concept. The BRICS, which has been expanded recently to BRICS+, has...

The world is witnessing growing turbulence stemming from geopolitics and a tangible threat of economic disintegration. There are some indications of globalization in retreat, international trade growth slowing down and a transition from optimizing efficiency of global value chains towards...

We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) - that is, inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition - might affect value added at different levels of...

This paper studies the potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) through quantifying potential long-term economic costs. The paper considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world...

This paper applies the two-country open-economy model with trade in stocks and bonds of Coeurdacier et al. (2010) to quantify the loss of international diversification benefits for major advanced economies, which have a significant presence in international financial markets, under geoeconomic...

Dieser Policy Brief gibt einen Überblick und Einschätzungen zu Debatten über Entwicklungspolitik. Angesichts veränderter internationaler Kontexte behandelt er die Notwendigkeit, die deutsche Entwicklungspolitik langfristig neu auszurichten und Reformen anzustoßen. Formuliert werden fünf...

What explains the US dollar's role in the global economy and the tensions affecting its likely persistence? Most analyses start from Triffin's dilemma, which accurately captured specific but partial tensions of a global monetary system based on essentially fixed exchange rates, gold backing for...

The global economic environment has changed fundamentally over the past decade. Growing protectionism and geoeconomic tensions pose a major challenge, especially for the EU, whose foundations are based on openness, multilateralism, and cooperation. This policy brief presents four basic...

First signs of headwinds to the global economy from geoeconomic fragmentation are emerging. This paper takes an overview on what is the current understanding of the economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation. The estimated and modelled economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation and...

Stagnating globalisation, the possible weaponisation of dependencies by autocracies, and US-China tensions threaten to disrupt Germany's export-driven economic model. But German efforts to 'derisk' that model remain underdeveloped, as does its policy toolkit. Germany's most important trade...

We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) -that is, inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition -might affect value added at different levels of...

Die systemische Konfrontation zwischen China und den USA, die russische Invasion der Ukraine, aber auch die Machtübernahme durch putschende Militärs u.a. im Niger zeigen: Das Umfeld für globale Kooperationsanstrengungen ist deutlich schwieriger geworden. Akteure im Globalen Süden sind in...

This research paper inspects the emerging strategic role of the Chabahar and Gwadar ports in relation to the evolving geopolitical and geo-economic Sino-Indian relationship. Iran and India, as of 2016, have been bilateral partners in operations of Iran’s Chabahar Port. Meanwhile, Pakistan and...

This integrative review introduces the correlative and evolutionary perspective of SWOT as a strategic analysis mechanism of geoeconomics. We use the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as a case study. Thus, we establish the emerging challenges and threats by correlating the...

Today’s global economy is marked by upheavals that are extensive, interconnected and unpredictable. Hot wars, cold rivalries, global pandemics, and disrupted supply chains are the realities for enterprises and governments. Geo-economics is a powerful and disruptive force shaping turbulent...

Die systemische Konfrontation zwischen China und den USA, die russische Invasion der Ukraine, aber auch die Machtübernahme durch putschende Militärs u.a. im Niger zeigen: Das Umfeld für globale Kooperationsanstrengungen ist deutlich schwieriger geworden. Akteure im Globalen Süden sind in...

Data on global trade as well as capital and labor flows indicate a slowdown, but not reversal, of globalization post the 2008-09 financial crisis. Yet profound changes in the policy environment and public sentiment in the largest economies over the past five years suggest the beginning of a new...