· This brief provides a big-picture overview of support for Ukraine after four years of war. The key finding from 2025 is that Europe has almost offset the collapse in US support. · US aid fell by 99 percent. At the same time, Europe sharply increased its aid allocations, by 59 percent for...

Geoeconomic fragmentation - the phenomenon of international transactions being increasingly restricted to politically aligned partners - creates risks for individual countries but also opportunities that some hope to seize by becoming "connector" countries. We modify a standard trade model by...

· This brief provides a big-picture overview of support for Ukraine after four years of war. The key finding from 2025 is that Europe has almost offset the collapse in US support. · US aid fell by 99 percent. At the same time, Europe sharply increased its aid allocations, by 59 percent for...

Durch den Ukraine-Krieg und die Entscheidung, auf russisches Pipelinegas zu verzichten, wurde Flüssigerdgas (LNG) zu einem Hauptpfeiler der Energieversorgung Deutschlands und der EU. Die europäische Nachfrage hat die Globalisierung des LNG-Marktes beschleunigt und fördert zugleich...

How effective are trade sanctions? We study the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports accounting for 36% of Russia's prewar import value. Combining novel, hand-collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm...

We examine the intersection of two subfields within political economy: geoeconomics and conflict. Geoeconomics is primarily concerned with the use of "economic weapons " of coercion, while the conflict literature mainly focuses on military weapons and war. We propose bridging these two...

Firm-level geoeconomic risk can affect even broadly diversified mutual fund portfolios. We study U.S. export controls that restrict sales of cutting-edge technology to selected Chinese firms for national security reasons. The stock prices of affected domestic suppliers drop immediately after the...

This paper explores the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on the energy transition in the Global North, a region historically responsible for high greenhouse gas emissions yet crucial in addressing climate change. Recent policy shifts away from economic integration have raised concerns about...

Industrial policy has become a core item in the policy agenda of many governments as well as of the EU which has come up with many policy initiatives over the past two decades. This paper emphasises the important shifts taking place in the global economy with the rise of China but also of other...

Geoeconomic pressure - the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic ends - has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of...

Durch den Ukraine-Krieg und die Entscheidung, auf russisches Pipelinegas zu verzichten, wurde Flüssigerdgas (LNG) zu einem Hauptpfeiler der Energieversorgung Deutschlands und der EU. Die europäische Nachfrage hat die Globalisierung des LNG-Marktes beschleunigt und fördert zugleich...

In sheer quantity, the five original BRICS countries appear impressive. They account for a substantial share of the world's population, economy, trade and muster large militaries. In January 2024, BRICS gained even more steam, by admitting four new member states that participated in the most...

Two phenomena are increasingly reshaping the world economy. One is the growing and well-documented importance of climate transition policies that differ across countries. The other is the stark rise of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) concerns. While differences in climate transition policies are...

We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and...

Changing trade patterns, higher tariffs and increased geoeconomic fragmentation are increasingly shaping the global economy. It is important for Danmarks Nationalbank to have the tools to analyse and assess the consequences of these trends to ensure a robust Danish economy. This memo presents...

Changing trade patterns, higher tariffs and increased geoeconomic fragmentation are increasingly shaping the global economy. It is important for Danmarks Nationalbank to have the tools to analyse and assess the consequences of these trends to ensure a robust Danish economy. This memo presents...

The enforcement of international sanctions is frequently undermined by multiple third-party sanction-breaking countries. This paper examines how a sanctioning country can optimally negotiate with several such loophole countries to close the enforcement gaps. We compare several sequential and...

This study develops a multidimensional Geoeconomic Fragmentation (GEF) Index and applies structural gravity modeling to quantify how rising geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and supplychain disruptions reshape ASEAN and Philippine commodity trade. Using dyad-product-year data (2000-2024), the...

Global events and geopolitical upheavals, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the US-China trade conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, have propelled the world towards geoeconomic fragmentation. This trend is exemplified by shifts away from free trade and globally integrated supply chains in favour of...

Ireland’s economy is deeply connected to the global trade network and relies on foreign direct investment (FDI), notably from the US. This paper presents a framework to estimate the impact of geo-economic fragmentation through three channels: (1) supply chain disruptions, (2) trade distortions...

This paper is about the importance of geoeconomics in attaining high-income status for Asian middle-income countries, with a special focus on the People's Republic of China, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. A key emphasis is placed on the role of trade policies as tools to diffuse tensions...

In view of increasing geopolitical tensions, the economic consequences and costs of wars on the global economy are increasingly coming into focus. In their Kiel Policy Brief, the authors examine the costs of more than 150 wars since 1870. In the immediate theaters of war alone, real GDP falls by...

Dieser Policy Brief gibt einen Überblick und Einschätzungen zu Debatten über Entwicklungspolitik. Angesichts veränderter internationaler Kontexte behandelt er die Notwendigkeit, die deutsche Entwicklungspolitik langfristig neu auszurichten und Reformen anzustoßen. Formuliert werden fünf...

What explains the US dollar's role in the global economy and the tensions affecting its likely persistence? Most analyses start from Triffin's dilemma, which accurately captured specific but partial tensions of a global monetary system based on essentially fixed exchange rates, gold backing for...

The global economic environment has changed fundamentally over the past decade. Growing protectionism and geoeconomic tensions pose a major challenge, especially for the EU, whose foundations are based on openness, multilateralism, and cooperation. This policy brief presents four basic...

The focus of the current US-China rivalry is mainly on technology and the race to dominate strategic emerging sectors. Industrial policy, as a return of key instrument, is playing an increasingly important role in both countries for competition. This paper aims to study several issues about...

We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) -that is, inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition -might affect value added at different levels of...

Geoeconomic fragmentation is on the rise amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and a surge in inward-looking policies to strengthen economic and national security. Focusing on trade and capital flows, this paper takes a closer look at the implications of geoeconomic fragmentation for the...

Dieser Policy Brief gibt einen Überblick und Einschätzungen zu Debatten über Entwicklungspolitik. Angesichts veränderter internationaler Kontexte behandelt er die Notwendigkeit, die deutsche Entwicklungspolitik langfristig neu auszurichten und Reformen anzustoßen. Formuliert werden fünf...

What explains the US dollar's role in the global economy and the tensions affecting its likely persistence? Most analyses start from Triffin's dilemma, which accurately captured specific but partial tensions of a global monetary system based on essentially fixed exchange rates, gold backing for...

The global economic environment has changed fundamentally over the past decade. Growing protectionism and geoeconomic tensions pose a major challenge, especially for the EU, whose foundations are based on openness, multilateralism, and cooperation. This policy brief presents four basic...

This paper studies the potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) through quantifying potential long-term economic costs. The paper considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world...

This paper applies the two-country open-economy model with trade in stocks and bonds of Coeurdacier et al. (2010) to quantify the loss of international diversification benefits for major advanced economies, which have a significant presence in international financial markets, under geoeconomic...

First signs of headwinds to the global economy from geoeconomic fragmentation are emerging. This paper takes an overview on what is the current understanding of the economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation. The estimated and modelled economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation and...

We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) - that is, inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition - might affect value added at different levels of...