This study, set against the backdrop of escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, examines the impact of soybean tariff adjustments on the abnormal asymmetric behavior in the futures market. By employing specialized analytical methods that capture market volatility asymmetry...

Using administrative longitudinal firm- and plant-level data from Mexico that links manufacturing firms to their customs records and covers the period 2014 - 2023, I examine whether US tariffs targeting China have contributed to a manufacturing revival in the southern part of North America....

The return of trade policy as an instrument of geopolitics has raised concerns about the future of the global trading system. But Trump's tariffs of 2025 have not led to a collapse of global trade. The key reason for this resilience is that Trump's tariffs are discriminatory, i.e. the US has a...

We study how trade wars propagate to countries that are not directly targeted. We develop a three-country New Keynesian model with trade in final and intermediate goods, incomplete asset markets, and asymmetric monetary regimes, and quantify the spillovers of the 2025 U.S.-China tariff...

Global trade flows and supply chains adjust gradually. Empirical estimates of the trade elasticity for the short run are a fraction of those for the long run and suggest that trade is subject to substantive dynamic frictions. We develop a tractable framework that provides microfoundations for...

On 1 March 2018, President Trump declared a 25% tariff on certain steel imports by invoking Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act. The tariff pitted two of America's most storied and interconnected industries, steel and auto producers, against one another and made allies out of longtime...

The trade war with China has cost US producers and consumers hundreds of billions of dollars since 2018. Yet relatively few US businesses took action to oppose it. This study reports the results of an elite survey experiment on business political activity toward trade policy. Researchers...

Industrial policy has returned to the centre of global economic debate. Once dismissed as inefficient, government intervention is now seen as vital for addressing climate change, technological competition and supply chain vulnerabilities. Yet the rise in uncoordinated national strategies risks...

This paper introduces a new measure of tariff evasion through rerouting and applies it to the 2018 U.S.–China trade war, focusing on Vietnam as a transit country. We use transaction-level trade data and define rerouting as the flow of a granular eight-digit HS product from China, through...

This paper investigates the trade elasticity, a key parameter in international economics, and examines biases in its estimation arising from dynamic treatment effects and staggered adoption. Leveraging the 2018 US trade war tariffs as a natural experiment, I apply a local projections...

This study investigates the weak-form efficiency and asymmetric multifractal scaling behavior of rare earth stock indices in the global, U.S. and Chinese markets during the trade war and the COVID-19 period. We examine the scaling behavior across overall, upward (bullish), and downward (bearish)...

This article examines the underlying motives behind the United States' trade and technological conflict with China since 2018. While the measures undertaken-ranging from tariffs and export controls to investment screening and industrial policy-are often interpreted through the lens of economic...

We use detailed tariff data and a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of the recent increase in U.S. import tariffs and the responses of its trading partners. Higher tariffs trigger an expansion in U.S....

This brief presents impact assessments of increased tariffs based on simulations using the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) macroeconomic model. The current increases in US import tariffs are shown to reduce aggregate output across all major economic regions. The most pronounced...

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of substantial tariffs imposed by the second Trump administration on imports from China and the euro area and their transmission through direct and indirect channels. Using the ECB-Global 3.0 semi-structural model, we show that tariffs raise US import...

International cooperation sometimes requires flexible agreements that permit temporary non-compliance in certain circumstances. Whether these circumstances occur is often only privately known by the non-complying partner. This paper analyzes how an international court that can only provide...