We develop a simple two-period principal-agent model in which a present-biased government, the agent, chooses public investment levels given a deficit rule imposed by the principal. The principal sets a deficit cap to curb current debt-financed consumption. In doing so, it also reduces long-term...

We study the social and distributional implications of the euro area (EA) sovereign debt crisis in countries that received external financial assistance for macroeconomic adjustments. Combining granular data from about one million survey interviews with households across euro area states carried...

A fiscal rule is economically sensible if it ensures sustainable public finances. The German debt brake does no such thing because it is blind to the two key determinants of fiscal sustainability - interest rates and growth. We therefore propose modelling a reformed German fiscal rule on the...

This study aims to analyze the long-run effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), a grouping of six countries (Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, the Central African Republic, and Chad) forming a monetary union....

This paper provides a critical assessment of the new EU fiscal framework, with a focus on its implications for public expenditure on the twin green and digital transition. According to the reformed rules, member states may commit to a package of investment and reform to extend the fiscal...

Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credibility needed for their survival and success....

Widening income disparities, higher corruption and larger informality in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) including Latin America, all with pressing and mounting fiscal problems, have rekindled interest in the empirical analysis of the key factors determining the occurrence...

This research employs a quadratic exponential model to examine the dynamics of fiscal adjustments in the context of oil shocks. The findings suggest significant state dependence, with past fiscal adjustments increasing the likelihood of future adjustments and an asymmetry in oil shock effects....

The European Union has reformed its fiscal rules in late 2024, making debt sustainability analysis (DSAs) the central steering tool for European fiscal policy. DSAs will be used to project debt-to-GDP ratios and derive fiscal policy requirements. In this paper, we show that DSAs currently...

In this paper, we analyse the effects on the economies of the European Union and the rest of the world, of several austerity policies implemented by the Southern European countries, i.e., Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain. In particular, we simulate the reduction in one point in the government...

This paper provides a novel way for instructors to teach about the perils of a large National Debt, which is currently $36 trillion. We provide a detailed lesson plan that utilizes balloons to illustrate the possible paths a society can take to address this issue. The lesson plan consists of an...

A fiscal rule is economically sensible if it ensures sustainable public finances. The German debt brake does no such thing because it is blind to the two key determinants of fiscal sustainability - interest rates and growth. We therefore propose modelling a reformed German fiscal rule on the...

This paper studies the impact of austerity measures implemented by the UK government after 2010 on life expectancy and mortality. We combine administrative data sources to create a panel dataset spanning from 2002 to 2019. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we estimate the effect of...

In der kommenden Legislaturperiode entsteht im Bundeshaushalt eine jährliche Finanzierungslücke von mindestens 120 Mrd. Euro, zumindest dann, wenn man die Bedarfe in Infrastruktur, Dekarbonisierung und Verteidigung ernst nimmt. Um Deutschland zu modernisieren, empfiehlt das Papier eine...

Through fiscal reaction functions, we investigate fiscal sustainability for five European country-group panels and check for a change in fiscal behaviour after countries adopted the euro as their currency. Using annual data for the period between 1990 and 2021, we identify evidence of average...

This paper investigates the implications of the European Union's revised fiscal governance framework for Italy, a country facing the dual challenge of high public debt and persistent economic stagnation. Using a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) macroeconometric model of the Italian economy (MITA), we...

Putting the high public debt ratios on a downward path after the surge during the pandemic and allocating sufficient resources to deliver on the green and digital transition will be among the priorities confronting the EU institutions emerging from the June 2024 European elections. After a long...

Die politische Diskussion um die deutsche Schuldenbremse klingt nicht ab. Nicht zuletzt dürften die Verhandlungen über den Bundeshaushalt des Jahres 2025 ihren Teil dazu beigetragen haben. Im Grunde kritisieren zu einem erheblichen Teil dieselben Personen die Schuldenbremse mit denselben...

In der Debatte um die Schuldenbremse bildet sich zunehmend ein Konsens für eine Reform heraus. Zuletzt versuchten Feld et al. (2024) den häufig vorgetragenen Kritikpunkt zu entkräfteten, die Schuldenbremse behindere staatliche Investitionen. Die verwendete synthetische Kontrollmethode...

Germany needs 782 billion euros in additional public spending for its modernisation by 2030. German politicians have so far lacked a reliable financing framework for this purpose; there are constant discussions around spending cuts or a constitutional reform of the debt brake. Neither strategy...

Deutschland benötigt bis 2030 zusätzliche öffentliche Ausgaben in Höhe von 782 Mrd. Euro für die Modernisierung. Bislang fehlt der deutschen Politik dafür ein verlässlicher Finanzierungsrahmen; diskutiert werden stets eine grundlegende Reform der Schuldenbremse oder Einsparungen. Beide...

We explored the fiscal impacts of climate-related phenomena in the Philippines and offer policy recommendations for creating a climate-resilient economy. By employing a threepronged empirical approach (i.e., time series, panel data, cross-section analyses), we probed on the nuanced interplay of...

The main goal of the first-generation expenditure rules was to ensure fiscal discipline: preserving a sound fiscal framework and public debt sustainability. Regarding this goal, analytically as well as empirically, limiting the share of public expenditure in GDP would be more appropriate in case...