Search Results - subject_exact:"Inflationserwartung"

Beliefs that move the economy : shocks to firms' and households' inflation expectations

Galiński, Paweł R. - 2026 - This version: 10th February 2026. First version: 1st June 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618475

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

The Lucas critique holds that policy evaluations based on historical correlations can fail because policy changes alter expectation formation. We develop a new approach to monetary policy evaluation that addresses this concern: we elicit expectations under alternative policy scenarios from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654379

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Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Heterogeneity in consumers' economic expectations across euro area countries

Dräger, Lena; Marenčák, Michal; Giang Hong Nghiem; … - 2026

This paper examines cross-country differences in consumer expectations about macroeconomic outcomes and mortgage borrowing conditions within a monetary union. Using harmonized microdata from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for eleven euro area countries, we document significant national...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654587

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Heterogeneity in consumers' economic expectations across euro area countries

Dräger, Lena; Marenčák, Michal; Giang Hong Nghiem; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Facts or feelings? : the role of relatable narratives in shaping inflation expectations

Ludolph, Melina; Giang Hong Nghiem; Tonzer, Lena - 2026

We examine whether combining factual information on inflation levels and forecasts with a narrative can persistently shape consumers' inflation expectations. In a preregistered randomized controlled trial with a representative sample of 3,000 German consumers, participants received either...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654676

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Facts or feelings? : the role of relatable narratives in shaping inflation expectations

Ludolph, Melina; Giang Hong Nghiem; Tonzer, Lena - 2026

Book / Working Paper

A new model of trend inflation using disaggregates, survey expectations, and uncertainty

Tallman, Ellis W.; Zaman, Saeed - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619060

When global energy costs travel : domestic trade network channel to inflation expectations

Chronopoulos, Dimitris K.; Gül, Selçuk; Kazdal, Abdullah - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015568326

Bank inflation expectations, risk premia and lending behavior

Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre; Bölükbaş, Kübra; Çolak, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015568344

Upward bias in inflation perceptions: persistence, drivers, implications

Andre, Peter; Schaffranka, Claudia; Weber, Michael - 2026 - Manuscript completed in February 2026

This paper examines the persistent upward bias in euro area households' inflation perceptions and expectations, even when realized inflation is near the ECB's target. It discusses behavioural and informational drivers of this bias, its implications for consumption, wage setting, and monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015607760

Hyperinflation perceptions : an experimental study

Assi, Ranim; Maniadis, Zacharias; Geōrganas, Sōtērēs - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015608755

Monetary policy and SME expectations

Anastasiou, Dimitris; Bragoudakis, Zacharias; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609735

Social media as a monetary policy tool? : evidence from a survey experiment

Simpartl, Josef - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610402

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Social media as a monetary policy tool? : evidence from a survey experiment

Simpartl, Josef - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Beating the "pros" with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago; Areosa, Waldyr Dutra; … - 2026 - Last updated: March 10, 2026

Professional inflation forecasts contain valuable information but exhibit information frictions. We extract improved forecasts by explicitly modeling these frictions using the US Survey of Professional Forecasters data, and find that forecast rigidity increases systematically with horizon,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612295

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Beating the "pros" with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago; Areosa, Waldyr Dutra; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

A market-based assessment of the outlook for inflation expectations and monetary policy in South Africa

Christensen, Jens H. E.; Steenkamp, Daan - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636702

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A market-based assessment of the outlook for inflation : expectations and monetary policy in South Africa

Christensen, Jens H. E.; Steenkamp, Daan - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Why did inflation rise and fall in 2021-24? : channels and evidence from expectations

Reis, Ricardo - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616623

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Why did inflation rise and fall in 2021-24? : channels and evidence from expectations

Reis, Ricardo - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Narratives on inflation : evidence from the United States and South Africa

Reiche, Lovisa - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615330

Inflation expectations and a conservative central banker : evidence from a natural experiment

Grebe, Moritz; Tillmann, Peter - 2026

This paper studies the response of inflation expectations to an exogenous shift in central bank preferences. We use the unexpected announcement of the resignation of Jens Weidmann, the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank, in 2021 as a natural experiment constituting a rare case of an exogenous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615749

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Inflation expectations and a conservative central banker : evidence from a natural experiment

Grebe, Moritz; Tillmann, Peter - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Who's on fire? : household characteristics and the formation of inflation expectations

Reiche, Lovisa; Galati, Gabriele; Moessner, Richhild; … - 2026

We study how consumers form and revise inflation expectations using a unique, highly balanced monthly panel of Dutch households. We develop a Bayesian framework that nests Full-Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) alongside common forecasting heuristics and test it by recovering...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015596487

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Who's on FIRE? : household characteristics and the formation of inflation expectations

Reiche, Lovisa; Galati, Gabriele; Moessner, Richhild; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Unveiling inflation : oil shocks, supply chain pressures, and expectations

Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015583614

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Unveiling inflation : oil shocks, supply chain pressures, and expectations

Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Unveiling inflation : oil shocks, supply chain pressures, and expectations

Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

From traits to rates : how personality shapes inflation expectations

Roderweis, Philipp; Toplitsch, Alexander - 2026

Using survey data from Austrian households, this paper examines how personality traits influence households' inflation expectations. We measure the Big Five personality traits and show they explain 70 % more of the differences in expectations than sociodemographic factors like age and income...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604968

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Pfäuti, Oliver; … - 2026 - Original version: December 2023, this version: January 2026

We measure which economic topics are top of mind using quarterly German household and firm panels from 2020 to 2024, a period that spans the post-pandemic inflation surge and the subsequent disinflation. With these data, we study the determinants and consequences of having inflation top of mind....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605200

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Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Experts as intermediaries

Gründler, Klaus; Lamla, Michael; Potrafke, Niklas; … - 2026

Households often struggle to understand policy interventions, limiting the effectiveness of policy transmission. We study how economic policy signals reach and influence households, focusing on the role of professional economists as interpretive intermediaries. When policy signals are complex...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606313

Inflation targeting and the dynamics of inflation risk premia in South Africa's bond market

Allison, Chloë; Wet, Theuns de - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624793

Households' inflation expectations and consumption in macroeconomic models : a negative real income channel

Mašek, Frantisek - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625682

Trend inflation and inflation expectations in high dimensional vector autoregressions

Louzis, Dimitrios P. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625693

Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

We study why inflation responds differently to economic activity over time. Using survey data covering the universe of Japanese firms, we show that firms are unable to perfectly distinguish aggregate from sector-specific demand changes, leading to positively correlated expectations about these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632269

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Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the Phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the Phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Monetary policy without an anchor

Bocola, Luigi; Dovis, Alessandro; Jørgensen, Kasper; … - 2026

Policymakers often cite the risk that inflation expectations might "de-anchor" as a key reason for responding forcefully to inflationary shocks. We develop a model to analyze this trade-off and to quantify the benefits of stable long-run inflation expectations. In our framework, households and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627083

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Monetary Policy without an Anchor

Bocola, Luigi; Dovis, Alessandro; Jørgensen, Kasper; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Extraordinary forward guidance in Canada during the pandemic

Sutherland, Christopher - 2026 - Last updated: January 19, 2026

We consider two trade-offs inherent to extraordinary forward guidance (EFG): potency versus flexibility, and the credibility of forward guidance versus the credibility of inflation targeting.We argue that the form of EFG used by the Bank of Canada during the COVID‑19 pandemic balanced both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637561

How food prices shape inflation expectations and the monetary policy response

Bonciani, Dario; Masolo, Riccardo M.; Sarpietro, Silvia - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637873

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How food prices shape inflation expectations and the monetary policy response

Bonciani, Dario; Masolo, Riccardo; Sarpietro, Silvia - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Inflation inattention and the consumption gap

Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; Ferlaino, Francesco; Serpieri, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638015

Monetary policy according to households : perceptions, reactions, and channels

Grigoli, Francesco; Sandri, Damiano; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; … - 2026

This paper studies how households perceive the transmission of monetary policy and how these perceptions affect their decisions. Using a large-scale survey of over 25,000 U.S. households combined with randomized information treatments, we measure how households expect changes in the federal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638512

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Monetary policy according to households : perceptions, reactions, and channels

Grigoli, Francesco; Sandri, Damiano; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; … - 2026 - This draft: April 21, 2026

Edition: This draft: April 21, 2026

Book / Working Paper

Monetary policy according to households : perceptions, reactions, and channels

Grigoli, Francesco; Sandri, Damiano; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The association between time discounting, hyperbolic discounting, and inflation expectations : evidence from large-scale survey data

Ogura, Kota; Yamaguchi, Manaka; Aizawa, Sakiho; Khan, … - 2026

Inflation expectations play a central role in monetary policy effectiveness, yet relatively little is known about how individual behavioral traits shape expectation formation. This study examines whether time discounting and hyperbolic discounting, key dimensions of intertemporal preferences,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639017

When wording changes what we find : the impact of inflation expectations on spending

Assenza, Tiziana; Huber, Stefanie J.; Mogilevskaja, Anna; … - 2026

We use a randomized experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel-Households (n ≈ 3, 900) to show that the estimated link between inflation expectations and household consumption flips sign depending on survey wording. This finding reconciles prior contradictory results and has direct implications...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639077

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When wording changes what we find : the impact of inflation expectations on spending

Assenza, Tiziana; Huber, Stefanie J.; Mogilevskaja, Anna; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Inflation expectations : the impact of priming in survey questions

Odendaal, Hanjo; Reid, Monique; Siklos, Pierre L. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639511

The role of inflation expectations in the path to 3% : understanding expectations formation and calibrating the models

Foresto, Anis; Reid, Monique; Steinbach, Rudi; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639521

Gas market shocks : tracing the effect on euro area inflation expectations

Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile; Lappe, Marie-Sophie; Manu, … - 2026

This paper examines the impact of natural gas market shocks on gas market dynamics, inflation expectations and realized inflation in the Euro Area using a BVAR model. Our contribution lies in a novel identification strategy that distinguishes between various types of shocks of unprecedented...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641394

Inflation expectations in Japan during unconventional monetary policy and pandemic periods

Dürmeier, Stefan; Kočenda, Evžen - 2026

The COVID-19 pandemic ended a long period of subdued inflation in Japan and renewed attention to the role of expectations in the transmission of monetary policy. This paper analyzes how Japanese households formed inflation expectations between 2006 and 2022, focusing on periods of unconventional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641831

How do monetary policy and inflation announcements affect firm expectations in high inflation?

Akarsu, Okan; Aktuğ, Emrehan - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641895

From global energy price shocks to firms' inflation expectations

Mello Costa, Miguel; Ponce, Jorge - 2026

This paper provides empirical evidence on a statistically significant pass-through from global energy price shocks to firms' inflation expectations in an oil-importing country. The results show that the size and duration of the pass-through depend crucially on the current local energy pricing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643985

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From global energy price shocks to firms' inflation expectations

Mello Costa, Miguel; Ponce, Jorge - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Comparison of inflation expectations from surveys and markets across different horizons

Elizondo, Rocio; Carrillo, Julio A. - 2026

This paper compares inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets for the short-, medium-, and long-term horizons for Mexico. The analysis covers the period between 2000 and 2024, and compares their descriptive statistics, bias, efficiency, discrepancy, convergence level, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644030

Learning about inflation and exchange rates

Beuermann, Diether W.; Bottan, Nicolas L.; Hoffmann, Bridget - 2026

We study how expert forecasts about inflation and nominal exchange rates affect households' inflation perceptions, exchange rate beliefs, and later durable-goods holdings in a small open economy. Using a randomized information experiment in Suriname, we provide households with expert forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656704

Seemingly anchored inflation expectations

Malmendier, Ulrike; Nagel, Stefan - 2026

Empirical evidence commonly cited as indicating that inflation expectations have become better anchored includes the declining sensitivity of expectations to inflation surprises over time, particularly around the adoption of inflation targeting. These patterns are typically attributed to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656796

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Seemingly anchored inflation expectations

Malmendier, Ulrike; Nagel, Stefan - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Inflation expectations of indian households : a better way to measure, and behavioral consequences

Roshin Paul P; Ghosh, Taniya - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647310

News-based inflation expectations : LLM-assisted measurement and forecasting

Tanisa Tawichsri; Suppawong Tuarob; Nuwat Nookhwun; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650750

Expectations, credibility, and the persistence of currency aubstitution

Alawin, Mohammad - 2026

This study examines why currency substitution proves so difficult to reverse, even after countries succeed in stabilizing inflation. Focusing on Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey-economies that endured severe inflationary episodes before implementing stabilization programs-the paper asks a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652131

The role of inflation perceptions in consumer inflation expectations : evidence from the euro area

Bussière, Matthieu; Gilbert, Johanna; Grishchenko, Olesya - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653252

Wage-price links and inflation expectations : time-varying evidence from the US and UK

Korkos, Ioannis - 2026

Links between wages, prices, and inflation expectations are examined for the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) using time-varying Granger causality tests applied to monthly (US 1983-2025; UK 2001-2025) and quarterly (US 1967-2025; UK 1985-2025) data. Pass-through is episodic and sector-specific...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653680

Echoes of hyperinflation : the link between past exposure and formation of expectations

Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre; Cilasun, Seyit Mümin; Deryol, Ahmet - 2026

This paper studies how lifetime inflation exposure shapes individuals' inflation expectations, perceptions, and financial behavior. Using a large individual-level dataset from Türkiye spanning 2014 to 2024, combined with detailed measures of past inflation experiences, we show that individuals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632407

On the limits of hedging inflation risk in investment portfolios

Chen, Damiaan H. J.; Beetsma, Roel; Wijnbergen, Sweder van - 2026 - This version: April 9, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632820

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On the limits of hedging inflation risk in investment portfolios

Chen, Damiaan H. J.; Beetsma, Roel; Wijnbergen, Sweder van - 2025

Book / Working Paper

On the limits of hedging inflation risk in investment portfolios

Chen, Damiaan H. J.; Beetsma, Roel; Wijnbergen, Sweder van - 2025 - This version: October 7, 2025

Edition: This version: October 7, 2025

Book / Working Paper

Learning and subjective beliefs about good and bad inflation ranges

Ghaderi, Mohammad; Seo, Sang Byung; Shaliastovich, Ivan - 2026

We identify desirable/undesirable inflation outcomes under subjective beliefs by comparing surveybased and risk-adjusted distributions of inflation. Intuitively, investors dislike inflation at both extremes, preferring a range in the middle. This "good inflation" region, which investors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633652

Who saw it coming? : historical experience and the 2021 inflation forecast failure

Stevanović, Dalibor - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633927