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Monetary policy insights under imperfect credibility

Carballo, Patricia - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617938

India’s inflation, 2019–2024 : food shocks and inflation targeting

Kohli, Renu - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654410

The effects of key parameters of the monetary policy reaction function on economic growth

El-Shagi, Makram; Philemon, Paul Lukuliko - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613463

Monetary and fiscal implications of commodity price shocks for commodityexporting small open economies

Naraidoo, Ruthira - 2026

Commodity-exporting economies, such as South Africa, are susceptible to wide fluctuations in their business cycles, closely tied to commodity price fluctuations. In this research, we develop a prototype dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with specific features for emerging small...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614249

Regime shifts in U.S. trend inflation : pre-Volcker to post-great moderation

Hu, Ruopu; Maith, Junior; Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi - 2026 - This version: March 6, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615812

Monetary policy and supply-side turnover

Adam, Klaus; Weber, Henning - 2026

The introduction of a firm or product life cycle into New Keynesian frameworks fundamentally alters the design of optimal monetary policy. Economic welfare and the Phillips curve then depend on the gap between inflation and a time-varying inflation target that arises endogenously from turnover....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605574

A new method for measuring underlying ínflation in Türkiye

Çapan, Merve; Gülveren, Ahmet; Özsevinç, Tuba - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606724

Inflation targeting and the dynamics of inflation risk premia in South Africa's bond market

Allison, Chloë; Wet, Theuns de - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624793

Do actions match words? reassessing the Taylor rule in an emerging-market context

Garga, Vaishali; Gryzb, Benjamin; Sengupta, Rajeswari - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625542

Monetary policy in india : the long road to inflation targeting

Sengupta, Rajeswari - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625560

Trend inflation and inflation expectations in high dimensional vector autoregressions

Louzis, Dimitrios P. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625693

Monetary policy without an anchor

Bocola, Luigi; Dovis, Alessandro; Jørgensen, Kasper; … - 2026

Policymakers often cite the risk that inflation expectations might "de-anchor" as a key reason for responding forcefully to inflationary shocks. We develop a model to analyze this trade-off and to quantify the benefits of stable long-run inflation expectations. In our framework, households and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627083

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Monetary Policy without an Anchor

Bocola, Luigi; Dovis, Alessandro; Jørgensen, Kasper; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Extraordinary forward guidance in Canada during the pandemic

Sutherland, Christopher - 2026 - Last updated: January 19, 2026

We consider two trade-offs inherent to extraordinary forward guidance (EFG): potency versus flexibility, and the credibility of forward guidance versus the credibility of inflation targeting.We argue that the form of EFG used by the Bank of Canada during the COVID‑19 pandemic balanced both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637561

AI paradox: promise vs. reality : what it means for monetary policy

Brault, Joshua; Haghighi, Maryam; Yang, Jing - 2026 - Last updated: March 3, 2026

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have revived expectations of transformative productivity gains and large‑scale labour‑market disruption. Yet despite rapid improvements in AI capabilities, aggregate productivity growth in advanced economies remains subdued, and widespread job...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638047

Seemingly anchored inflation expectations

Malmendier, Ulrike; Nagel, Stefan - 2026

Empirical evidence commonly cited as indicating that inflation expectations have become better anchored includes the declining sensitivity of expectations to inflation surprises over time, particularly around the adoption of inflation targeting. These patterns are typically attributed to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656796

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Seemingly anchored inflation expectations

Malmendier, Ulrike; Nagel, Stefan - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Recent evidence on the resiliency of flexible inflation targeting

Briganti, Edoardo; Dong, Wei; Kostyshyna, Olena; Lee, … - 2026 - Last updated: June 11, 2026

This paper assesses the resilience of flexible inflation targeting in the presence of large and persistent supply shocks. Evidence from Canada's post-pandemic experience, new macroeconomic experiments, and policy changes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand shows that flexible inflation targeting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015660350

Revisiting Thailand's Phillips Curves : a granular panel data approach

Chantaraboontha, Arisa - 2026

This paper employs disaggregated panel data to examine the evolution of Thailand's Phillips Curve (PC) before and during the pandemic, providing empirical evidence on the nature of Thai inflation dynamics and their implications for optimal monetary policy formulation. Utilizing the real output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633359

Anchoring inflation expectations : a teaching treatment and its persistence through the 2025 German federal election

Gockel, Christine; Strohsal, Till - 2026

We study how inflation expectations can be anchored through different forms of communication and whether such anchoring survives political change. Using a two-wave panel RCT around the 2025 German federal election, we show that providing the ECB's target and projections lowers expectations by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015635198

From Volcker to the pandemic era: history dependent anchoring of short-run expected inflation

Jørgensen, Peter Lihn; Lansing, Kevin J. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636749

Uncertainty shocks and inflation : the role of credibility and expectation anchoring

Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574537

Same objectives, but different trade-offs? : Norges Bank and the Riksbank after the post-pandemic inflation surge

Almerud, Jakob; Seim, Anna Larsson - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015669001

Optimal inflation rate : a meta-analysis

Opatrny, Matej; Opatrny, Martin; Havránek, Tomáš; … - 2026

We revisit the optimal long-run inflation rate using 777 estimates from 116 primary studies published between 1989 and 2026, the largest sample on the topic to date. To our knowledge, this is among the first economics meta-analyses in which primary-data extraction is done from start to finish...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667786

Learning monetary policy strategies at the effective lower bound with sudden surprises

Krane, Spencer David; Melosi, Leonardo; Rottner, Matthias - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668273

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Learning monetary policy strategies at the effective lower bound with sudden surprises

Krane, Spencer David; Melosi, Leonardo; Rottner, Matthias - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Learning monetary policy strategies at the effective lower bound with sudden surprises

Krane, Spencer David; Melosi, Leonardo; Rottner, Matthias - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Is the 2 percent inflation target sufficient? The wealth preference approach

Hara, Naoko; Ono, Yoshiyasu - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015532117

Inflation expectations and inflation modelling: the case of Trinidad and Tobago

Nelson, Andell; Persad, Nikkita - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546919

Takatoshi Ito : scholarship on Japan's economy transformed

Aoki, Kōsuke; Auerbach, Alan J.; Horioka, Charles; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015547200

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Takatoshi Ito: scholarship on Japan's economy transformed

Aoki, Kōsuke; Auerbach, Alan J.; Horioka, Charles; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Takatoshi Ito : scholarship on Japan's economy transformed

Aoki, Kōsuke; Auerbach, Alan J.; Horioka, Charles; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Monetary rules, financial stability and welfare in a non-Ricardian framework

Adame-Espinosa, Francisco - 2025

This paper studies the implications for optimal monetary policy associated to the wealth effects induced by stock-price dynamics within a non-Ricardian framework. We use a new Keynesian model incorporating households with perpetual youth to study whether a monetary rule responding to asset price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015549033

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Monetary rules, financial stability and welfare in a non-Ricardian framework

Adame Espinosa, Francisco - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Combating crises and deflation in China's central bank : modeling post-pandemic monetary policymaking

Burdekin, Richard C. K.; Siklos, Pierre L. - 2025

The monetary policy of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) during 2001-2023 is assessed in terms of Taylor and McCallum rules, as well as a proposed composite monetary policy rule. PBoC policy is found to be responsive to the gap between target and actual nominal GDP in the McCallum rule, as well...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371222

Bank credit, expected inflation rate, and financial dynamics

Watanabe, Toshio - 2025

We investigate the effects of debt-capital ratio and expected inflation rate on the stability of the economy using a Minsky model and reconsidering Fisher's debt-deflation theory. We have developed static and dynamic models that formalize an inflation-targeting policy. The static model reveals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371903

A predictive term-spread model in the age of inflation targeting

Tvedt, Jostein - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372595

Monetary regimes with two nominal anchors : are they possible?

Fabris, Nikola - 2025

The traditional approach to monetary policy, which relied on one instrument to achieve a single goal, has proven ineffective during recent periods of global instability. In response to the challenges that this traditional framework could not address, non-standard monetary policy instruments have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375710

One who hesitates is lost : monetary policy under model uncertainty and model misspecification

Ajevskis, Viktors - 2025

This paper investigates how different parametrisations of the monetary policy reaction function and different mechanisms of expectation formation shape the macroeconomic outcomes in the estimated Smets-Wouters type of DSGE model. The initial macroeconomic conditions of the simulations correspond...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015210360

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One who hesitates is lost : monetary policy under model uncertainty and model misspecification

Ajevskis, Viktors - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Do inflation expectations become more anchored during a disinflation episode? : evidence for euro area firms

Baumann, Ursel; Ferrando, Annalisa; Georgarakos, Dimitris; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015210555

Trend Inflation in the Japanese pre-2000s : a Markov-Switching DSGE

Kato, Ryo; Maih, Junior; Nishihama, Shin-Ichi - 2025

In Japan, the inflation rate declined to near-zero, whereas the monetary policy faced a zero lower bound (ZLB) in the 1990s. We examine whether trend inflation had fallen to near-zero prior to the ZLB. To achieve this, we estimate Japanese pre-2000 trend inflation developing a Markov-switching...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015333298

The taming of the skew : asymmetric inflation risk and monetary policy

De Polis, Andrea; Melosi, Leonardo; Petrella, Ivan - 2025

We document that inflation risk in the U.S. varies significantly over time and is often asymmetric. To analyze the macroeconomic effects of these asymmetric risks within a tractable framework, we construct the beliefs representation of a general equilibrium model with skewed distribution of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015339627

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The taming of the skew : asymmetric inflation risk and monetary policy

De Polis, Andrea; Melosi, Leonardo; Petrella, Ivan - 2024

Book / Working Paper

The taming of the skew : asymmetric inflation risk and monetary policy

De Polis, Andrea; Melosi, Leonardo; Petrella, Ivan - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Asymmetric inflation target credibility

Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573359

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Asymmetric inflation target credibility

Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: January 2025

Edition: This version: January 2025

Book / Working Paper

Asymmetric inflation target credibility

Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: January 2025

Edition: This version: January 2025

Book / Working Paper

Asymmetric inflation target credibility

Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: March 2025

Edition: This version: March 2025

Book / Working Paper

U.S. monetary policy spillovers to emerging market countries : responses to cost-push and natural rate shocks

Cheng, Penghao; You, Yu - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015193337

Central bank information effects in Japan : the role of uncertainty channel

Morita, Hiroshi; Matsumoto, Ryo; Ono, Taiki - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015193879

Trend inflation and structural shocks

Fu, Bowen; Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan - 2025

This paper studies the effects of key underlying macroeconomic variables on the trend inflation rate in the USA. To do so, we consider eight structural shocks that incorporate a broad set of information for the US economy and that can be regarded as the main structural determinants of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015195132

Inflation targeting and inflation performance in Africa : evidence using a synthetic control approach

Bambe, Bao-We-Wa; Apeti, Ablam Estel - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015195325

Decline of interest rates under inflation targeting and previous regimes : evidence from Latin America and developed countries

Chión-Chacón, Sergio Julio; Álvarez García, Kevin … - 2025

This study empirically investigates the impact of Inflation Targeting (IT) on nominal interest rates over the past 40 years, focusing on 10 advanced and emerging economies. By using a Binary Regime Model embedded within a Backward-Looking Taylor, our findings confirm that IT adoption has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359705

Economic growth target fluctuation and bond issuance by LGFVs

Liu, Shulin; Wang, Xianbin; Huang, Liangxiong - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015327564

Angola : Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System on the Transition to Inflation Targeting

2025

At the request of the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA), a technical assistance (TA) mission from the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department visited Luanda, Angola from May 20 to May 24, 2024. The mission helped the authorities review its forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS),...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015328016

Anchored inflation expectations : what recent data reveal

Kostyshyna, Olena; Salle, Isabelle; Truong, Hung - 2025 - Last updated: January 30, 2025

We analyze micro-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations through the lens of a heterogeneous-expectations model to study the state-dependent risk of inflation expectations unanchoring in low- and high-inflation environments. In our model, agents are either trend-chasing or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015416464