This paper argues that the investment–savings imbalances of households and companies play an important role in determining the probability that an economy experiences a credit-less recovery, following a recession. The investment–savings gap determines the need for “external” finance of...

Using a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004 we analyze the empirical characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows --understood as large and largely unexpected capital account contractions that occur in periods of systemic turmoil -- and the...

In this paper we argue that the persistent global imbalances, the subprime crisis, and the volatile oil and asset prices that followed it, are tightly interconnected. They all stem from a global environment where sound and liquid financial assets are in scarce supply

We present a model to study the dynamics of risk premia during crises in asset markets where the marginal investor is a financial intermediary. Intermediaries face a constraint on raising equity capital. When the constraint binds, so that intermediaries' equity capital is scarce, risk premia...

This paper provides a unified theory of the economic and demographic transition. Individuals make optimal decisions about fertility, education of their children and the type and intensity of the investments in their own education. These decisions are affected by different dimensions of mortality...

I show that the composition of the financial sector has important asset pricing implications beyond the health of the aggregate financial sector. To assess the impact of massive balance sheet adjustments within the intermediary sector during the Great Recession and resolve conflicting asset...

The paper evaluates the future capital needs of Eastern countries and the potential structure of financing. Under certain growth assumptions, the investment needs amount to some $ 169 bn per year for Eastern Europe and nearly three times this amount for the former Soviet Union. Accelerating the...

Over the course of U.S. history there have been a small number of occasions in which aggregate nominal spending has declined, the most recent of which occurred during the recession that began in December 2007. Coincident with these observed declines in nominal spending are declines in the...

Standard models of investment predict that credit-constrained firms should grow rapidly when given additional capital, and that how this capital is provided should not affect decisions to invest in the business or consume the capital. The authors randomly gave cash and in-kind grants to male-...

This thesis consists of three essays examining banks’ tax response. The first essay Tax vs. Regulation Policy and the Location of Financial Sector FDI is co-authored with Prof. Dr. Michael Overesch, Chair of Business Taxation at the University of Cologne and Prof. Dr. Georg Wamser, Chair of...

Standard models of investment predict that credit-constrained firms should grow rapidly when given additional capital, and that how this capital is provided should not affect decisions to invest in the business or consume the capital. We randomly gave cash and in-kind grants to male- and...

This paper explores how financial frictions and financial shocks can contribute to jobless recoveries. We incorporate financial frictions and financial shocks into a real business cycle model in which firms determine not only their investment in capital and employment of workers, but also...

We model the dynamics of risk premia during crises in asset markets where the marginal investor is a financial intermediary. Intermediaries face an equity capital constraint. Risk premia rise when the constraint binds, reflecting the capital scarcity. The calibrated model matches the...

Standard models of investment predict that credit-constrained firms should grow rapidly when given additional capital, and that how this capital is provided should not affect decisions to invest in the business or consume the capital. The authors randomly gave cash and in-kind grants to male-...

We first illustrate that emerging markets (EMs) face a shortage of financial assets, with financial assets not growing as rapidly as domestic savings. We then estimate the asset shortage in EMs for 1995-2008. We develop a model that explains how asset shortage develop, and then econometrically...

Using a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004, this paper analyzes the characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows and the relevance of balance-sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. A small supply of tradable goods...

Recoveries that occur in the absence of credit growth are often dubbed miracles and named after mythical creatures. Yet these are not rare animals, and are not always miracles. About one out of five recoveries is "creditless", and average growth during these episodes is about a third lower than...

Recoveries that occur in the absence of credit growth are often dubbed miracles and named after mythical creatures. Yet these are not rare animals, and are not always miracles. About one out of five recoveries is "creditless," and average growth during these episodes is about a third lower than...

We first illustrate that emerging markets (EMs) face a shortage of financial assets, with financial assets not growing as rapidly as domestic savings. We then estimate the asset shortage in EMs for 1995-2008. We develop a model that explains how asset shortage develop, and then econometrically...

Recoveries that occur in the absence of credit growth are often dubbed miracles and named after mythical creatures. Yet these are not rare animals, and are not always miracles. About one out of five recoveries is "creditless", and average growth during these episodes is about a third lower than...

Standard models of investment predict that credit-constrained firms should grow rapidly when given additional capital, and that how this capital is provided should not affect decisions to invest in the business or consume the capital. We randomly gave cash and in-kind grants to male- and...

Following a scarcity of dollar funding available internationally to banks and financial institutions, in December 2007 the Federal Reserve began to establish or expand Temporary Reciprocal Currency Arrangements with fourteen foreign central banks. These central banks had the capacity to use...

Following a scarcity of dollar funding available internationally to banks and financial institutions, starting in December 2007 the Federal Reserve established or expanded Temporary Reciprocal Currency Arrangements with fourteen foreign central banks. These central banks had the capacity to use...

Following a scarcity of dollar funding available internationally to banks and financial institutions, in December 2007 the Federal Reserve began to establish or expand Temporary Reciprocal Currency Arrangements with fourteen foreign central banks. These central banks had the capacity to use...

Following a scarcity of dollar funding available internationally to banks and financial institutions, starting in December 2007 the Federal Reserve established or expanded Temporary Reciprocal Currency Arrangements with fourteen foreign central banks. These central banks had the capacity to use...

Following a scarcity of dollar funding available internationally to banks and financial institutions, in December 2007 the Federal Reserve began to establish or expand Temporary Reciprocal Currency Arrangements with fourteen foreign central banks. These central banks had the capacity to use...

This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging requiring major fiscal...

The difficulty or inability to borrow made capital market constraints an important part of the decision of potential emigrants to move from Europe to North America. We formalize the constraint with a life-cycle model, where agents jointly choose the optimal period of saving to finance migration...

The difficulty or inability to borrow made capital market constraints an important part of the decision of potential emigrants to move from Europe to North America. We formalize the constraint with a life-cycle model, where agents jointly choose the optimal period of saving to finance migration...

Using a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004, this paper analyzes the characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows and the relevance of balance-sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. A small supply of tradable goods...