Search Results - subject_exact:"Konjunktur"

Geopolitische Verwerfungen und Unsicherheit: Die konjunkturelle Resilienz Liechtensteins

Brunhart, Andreas; Geiger, Martin; Hasler, Elias - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614574

Erholung erneut auf dem Prüfstand : IW-Konjunkturumfrage Frühjahr 2026

Grömling, Michael - 2026 - Stand: April 2026

Die kurzfristigen Perspektiven für die deutsche Wirtschaft waren in den vergangenen Wochen erneut von erheblichen Verunsicherungen und Risiken geprägt. Mit dem Krieg im Nahen Osten sieht sich die gesamte Weltwirtschaft mit zusätzlichen Gefahren konfrontiert. Neben den Energieproblemen im...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632047

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Erholung erneut auf dem Prüfstand: IW-Konjunkturumfrage Frühjahr 2026

Grömling, Michael - 2026

Book / Working Paper

KOOMA : a DSGE model of the Finnish economy

Koponen, Kristine; Niemeläinen, Julia; Elmgren, Peter; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616841

Labor informality and macroeconomic volatility

Ávila-Montealegre, Oscar Iván; Grajales-Olarte, Anderson - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617558

Approach to estimating confidence intervals for a business cycle

Martinez-Rivera, Wilmer; Hernandez-Bejarano, Manuel Dario - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617579

Iran-Krieg und Energiepreisschock gefährden wirtschaftliche Erholung : Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2026/2027

Breuer, Christian; Dullien, Sebastian; Herzog-Stein, … - 2026 - Abgeschlossen am 18.03.2026

Die Weltwirtschaft wird im Jahr 2026 durch den Iran-Krieg und den damit einhergehenden sprunghaften Anstieg der Energiepreise spürbar belastet. Eine anhaltende Blockade der für den globalen Rohöl- und Gashandel wichtigen Straße von Hormus und die Zerstörung von Förderkapazitäten...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618095

The macroeconomic effects of AI uncertainty

Reyes, Juan Rufino M. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618189

The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations

Bielecki, Marcin; Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał; Kolasa, Marcin - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618482

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The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations

Bielecki, Marcin; Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał; Kolasa, Marcin - 2026

Book / Working Paper

A method for the gender disaggregation of Okun's law

Boďa, Martin; Tichá, Michaela - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654391

Smog, not lights : tracking Bolivia's 2024-2026 recession from space

Hernani-Limarino, Werner; Eid, Ahmed - 2026

Nighttime lights are the standard satellite proxy for economic activity, but they fail to detect recessions. On a 2020-2024 panel of nine Bolivian departments, VIIRS lights match the sign of PIB growth 78 percent of the time during expansions but only 39 percent during contractions - worse than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654701

Transitory shocks and consumption dynamics : pent-up demand or hand-to-mouth?

Brown, Martin; Hamoud, Mohamed; Toczynski, Jan - 2026 - This version: May 2026

We examine the recovery of U.S. consumer spending following the COVID-19 recession using monthly transaction data for over 34,000 individuals. We find limited evidence that cutbacks in spending on in-person services or durables during the recession generated pent-up demand. Instead, spending...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654807

Incorporating micro data into macro models using pseudo VARs

Koop, Gary; McIntyre, Stuart; Mitchell, James; Wu, Ping - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618992

Optimal short-time work policy in recessions

Stiepelmann, Gero - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619053

Firm liquidity and the origins of aggregate fluctuations in a network economy

Eshraghi, Mohsen - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619062

ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognose Winter 2025 : ostdeutsche Wirtschaft im Spannungsfeld zwischen Strukturwandel und geopolitischen Umbrüchen

Lehmann, Robert; Ragnitz, Joachim - 2026

Im Jahr 2025 dürfte die Wirtschaftsleistung in Ostdeutschland (mit Berlin) um 0,4 % und damit etwas stärker als in Deutschland insgesamt zulegen. In Sachsen dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wohl kaum mehr als stagnieren (+0,1 %). Im Jahr 2026 entfalten zwar die geplanten Fiskalmaßnahmen ihre...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609208

ifo Konjunkturumfragen Ostdeutschland und Sachsen Januar 2026

Lehmann, Klara - 2026

Das ifo Geschäftsklima Ostdeutschland basiert auf ca. 1 700 monatlichen Meldungen von Unternehmen, von denen ca. 500 aus Sachsen stammen. Die Befragungsteilnehmer*innen kommen aus dem Verarbeitenden Gewerbe, dem Dienstleistungssektor, dem Handel und dem Bauhauptgewerbe. Die Unternehmen werden...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609210

Same shock, separate channels : house prices and firm performance in the Great Recession

Blackwood, G. Jacob - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609674

Graduates in a cycle : the effect of business cycle trajectories on labor market outcomes of college graduates

Pavlova, Margarita - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610400

Monetary policy and the output gap in DSGE models for small open economies : insights from the Czech Republic

Šestořád, Tomáš; Vlček, Jan; Musil, Karel - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610401

Securitization, bank regulation, and the macroeconomy

Luintel, Kul B.; Torres, José L. - 2026

We develop a general equilibrium framework in which a commercial banker, constrained by capital adequacy requirements, creates a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to hold securitized assets off its balance sheet. By operating the bank and SPV as separate entities, the banker circumvents regulation,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612431

Financial Inclusion, Credit Booms, and Financial Stability Risk

Barajas, Adolfo - 2026

Economic benefits of financial inclusion, meaning a broadening access of the population to financial services, have been studied extensively, but less is known about its potential effects on financial stability. We explore the complementarity between credit booms and episodes of rapid expansion...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612695

External Drivers of Credit Cycles in Cambodia

Che, Natasha - 2026

This paper investigates the external drivers of Cambodia’s credit cycles using a dynamic factor model. Results indicate that common global and regional factors explain over 60 percent of credit growth variance, reflecting one of Asia’s highest sensitivities to external conditions. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612715

Managing the components of working capital in terms of economic recession : a synergistic effect on the financial and economic standing of a company

Iershova, Natalia Y.; Portna, Oksana V.; Mahdysiuk, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614233

The credit gap as a real-time early warning indicator of financial imbalances : a South African perspective

Msiska, Wongani; Sikhosana, Ayanda; Vermeulen, Cobus - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615329

Regime shifts in U.S. trend inflation : pre-Volcker to post-great moderation

Hu, Ruopu; Maith, Junior; Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi - 2026 - This version: March 6, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615812

Understanding the inflation-output relationship across business cycle phases

Cardamone, Dario; De Santis, Roberto A. - 2026

We examine the state dependence of monetary policy transmission and the parameters of the Phillips curve, dynamic IS equation, and Taylor rule across four regimes defined by joint deviations of inflation from the Federal Reserve's target and output from potential. The analysis uncovers important...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592690

A cyclical explanation of the decrease in the credit-to-GDP ratio in Poland after the COVID-19 pandemic

Kapuściński, Mariusz - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015594901

Quantifying Minsky cycles

Ristolainen, Kim - 2026

We develop a novel sentiment measure from survey forecasts that captures the component of beliefs arising from the systematic misaggregation of public information relative to a machine benchmark based on the same information set. We extend this sentiment measure historically for a panel of 78...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628026

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Quantifying Minsky cycles

Ristolainen, Kim - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Exogenous fluctuations : DSGE models

Nicoletti, Giulio; Pensieroso, Luca - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015597400

Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, January 2026

2026

Thailand’s economy showed signs of mild improvement in November supported by stronger exports and retail trade. Government stimulus measures, including the co-payment scheme and travel incentives, helped lift activity in hotels and restaurants, though overall household consumption remained...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015597419

Lebanon Economic Monitor, Winter 2025 : A Fragile Rebound

2026

Lebanon’s economy recorded positive growth in 2025, marking a modest step toward a potential path for long-term recovery. The improvement reflects a rebound in tourism, alongside early signs of macroeconomic stabilization and some base-effect-driven gains following years of deep contraction....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015597520

Industrial metal supply shocks and heterogeneous macroeconomic effects : evidence from copper

Bastianin, Andrea; Rossini, Luca; Testa, Alessandra - 2026

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global copper supply shocks. We identify exogenous disruptions to copper supply using a Bayesian structural VAR of the world copper market that combines sign and narrative restrictions. We then trace the international transmission of the identified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015588200

The Financial Lobster Bias

Reyes Marín, Óscar De los; Paz Gil, Iria; … - 2026

The Financial Lobster Bias describes how SMEs, driven by distorted liquidity perceptions, engage in aggressive expansion until financial breakdown occurs. Using data from 10,412 Spanish SMEs (2000-2024), this study shows that liquidity misperception-measured through two versions of the Liquidity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015591400

Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions : what can we learn from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022?

Aizenman, Joshua; Itō, Hiro; Park, Donghyun; Saadaoui, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015580406

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Global Shocks, Institutional Development, and Trade Restrictions : What Can We Learn from Crises and Recoveries Between 1990 and 2022?

Aizenman, Joshua; Itō, Hiro; Park, Donghyun; Saadaoui, … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Do anecdotes matter? : exploring the Beige Book through textual analysis from 1970 to 2025

Du, Shengwu; Haberkorn, Flora; Kitschelt, Isabel; Lee, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605570

The dynamic market for short-cycle higher education programs

Carranza, Juan Esteban; Ferreira, María M.; Gazmuri, Ana - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605623

Global risk shocks in a small open economy and their impact on monetary policy surprises

Michelsen, Juan - 2026

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global risk shocks (GRS) in a small open economy and their implications for the identification of monetary policy shocks. I construct a novel proxy for GRS based on unexpected daily innovations in the VIX and employ it as an external instrument in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606798

German economy on the upswing-global economy continues to grow moderately

Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; Brehl, Nina Maria; … - 2026

After three years of subdued economic activity, the German economy is on the road to recovery. While the Iran war and erratic U.S. trade policy are weighing on growth, their impact is only moderate. Although the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that U.S. tariffs are unlawful, this does not change...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624987

External shocks, fiscal transmission mechanisms, and macroeconomic volatility : evidence from Ecuador

Diaz-Kovalenko, Igor Ernesto - 2026

This paper investigates how external shocks propagate through fiscal transmission mechanisms in a commodity-dependent economy within a dynamic macroeconomic framework. The study contributes to the literature on macroeconomic fluctuations by examining the interaction between external revenue...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626038

Nonlinear business-cycle anatomy

Brianti, Marco; Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, … - 2026

Building on a frequency-domain identification within a nonlinear Structural Dynamic Factor Model, we study the nonlinear transmission of demand and supply shocks, the two shocks accounting for the bulk of fluctuations in U.S. macroeconomic variables. Supply shocks propagate symmetrically and are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627060

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Nonlinear business-cycle anatomy

Brianti, Marco; Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Sectoral and aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions in a small open economy

Friesenbichler, Klaus S.; Glocker, Christian; Hölzl, Werner - 2026

We present a country-specific measure of supply chain disruptions and compare it with a global counterpart. We identify each measure's macroeconomic role and consider a sectoral extension using the two-digit NACE level of disaggregation and a multi-sector general equilibrium model to assess the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628646

Can the Sahm rule indicator signal recession in OECD countries?

Miyahara, Takashi - 2026

Labour market indicators are widely used to identify recessions, with the Sahm rule – based on changes in unemployment rate – valued for its simplicity and timeliness in the United States. Its effectiveness elsewhere, however, remains uncertain. This study examines whether the Sahm rule can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015629646

The real wage recovery is slowing down : The OECD wage bulletin

2026

Real wages continue to rise in virtually all OECD countries. However, the pace of their recovery is slowing, while they remain below the levels seen in early 2021 – just before the post-pandemic inflation surge – in half of countries. In most OECD countries, real statutory minimum wages...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015629929

Banking structures, liquidity, and macroeconomic stability

Araujo, Luis; Beqiraj, Elton; Hong, David; Kokas, Sotirios - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637774

Impact of capping emissions on macroeconomic volatility : the case of Saudi Arabia

Galeottib, Marzio; Manzanoc, Baltasar; Pierru, Axel - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637816

Point break : when fiscal rules turn pro-cyclical$devidence from debt thresholds in the European Union

Carnazza, Giovanni; Tomasone, Francesco - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638013

The role of firm heterogeneity for the transmission of aggregate shocks

Lenza, Michele; Pagano Giorgianni, Giuseppe; Rossi, Lorenza - 2026

We study whether firm-level heterogeneity helps explain U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations in response to aggregate shocks. Using quarterly Compustat and CRSP data from 1986 to 2025, we construct two revenue-based statistics inspired by the Melitz (2003) model: the average firm and the marginal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638623

A tale of three industries : the rise, decline and rise again of the Swedish life sciences sector

Abdi, Ismail; Dugo, Andrea; Erixon, Fredrik; Guinea, Oscar - 2026

In this report we show that the Swedish life sciences sector has changed remarkably in the past 30 years and that is yet again positioned for rapid growth. We identify three distinct phases of the development in the last three decades - rise, decline, and rise again. Compared to 30 years ago,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638643

How cyclical is a gap? : composition-adjusted evidence on the gender wage gap

Pereira, João G.; Ramos, Raul; Martins, Pedro S. - 2026

We propose a simple and novel approach to estimate the cyclicality of gaps using crosssectional data. Our method controls for composition effects in contexts in which panel data cannot be leveraged. Our method also provides useful insights for assessing common trends in difference-in-differences...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638662

Deutsche Konjunktur in instabiler Seitenlage : IW-Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2026

2026 - Stand: Mai 2026

Mit dem Krieg im Nahen Osten sieht sich die gesamte Weltwirtschaft mit zusätzlichen und schwer kalkulierbaren ökonomischen Belastungen konfrontiert. Die Blockade der für die globale Versorgung mit Energie und teils weiterverarbeiteten Gütern wichtigen Seeroute durch die Straße von Hormus...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638987