We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

This article analyses aspects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in its international context from a game theory perspective, with particular attention to the possible use of the brinkmanship strategy by US President Donald Trump.

Vladimir Putin underestimated the war against Ukraine on several levels, both in terms of the response within Ukraine and, above all, in terms of the response from the US and Europe. What can we learn from this? What policies should Europe pursue? What signals should it send to Putin to prevent...

The essay examines the commercial and financial activities of Palla Strozzi, a Florentine merchant active in Lyon in the first half of the 16th century. A cousin of the leaders of the Florentine republican movement - the brothers Piero, Roberto and Leone Strozzi, allies of France against duke...

Trotz katastrophaler Verluste könnte die Ukraine eine wichtige Rolle in Europa spielen. Die Armee, die Zivilgesellschaft und die Behörden, unterstützt von ausländischen Verbündeten, stellen sich trotz allem weiterhin einem übermächtigen Feind entgegen. Die Ukraine will mit allen Mitteln...

We show how exposure to partisan peers, under conditions requiring high stakes cooperation, can trigger the breakthrough of novel political beliefs. We exploit the largescale, exogenous assignment of soldiers from each of 34,947 French municipalities into line infantry regiments during World War...

How effective are trade sanctions? We study the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports accounting for 36% of Russia's prewar import value. Combining novel, hand-collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm...

Rapid advancement of information and communication technologies (ICT) and artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly influenced various sectors of society, including education. Global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and military conflicts have further accelerated the adoption...

The international context is changing profoundly, owing to rising autocratisation and the return of international war. These transformations also impact the long-standing problem of state fragility. The IDOS Constellations of State Fragility (CSF) provides a differentiated model to measure state...

This paper examines the impact of immigration on voting behaviour. Exploiting a unique natural experiment, we research parliamentary election results in Poland following the 2022 inflow of Ukrainian refugees. We exploit the variation in hosted refugees across Polish counties and utilise a...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

Recent global crises, such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine War, have accelerated efforts to reduce dependency to fossil fuels due to soaring prices. This research aims to identify the key factors such as climate, electricity and gas price, GDP, renewable energy use, population and COVID-19...

Bellicose theories of state-building suggest that wars enable the emergence of strong states via the mechanism of increased war-time fiscal capacities. We explore the hitherto littleanalysed micro-level foundations of this claim. Does the experience of war increase public support for higher...

This Brief analyses reactive responses and proposes proactive solutions to the challenge of Russian aggression, with a focus on spatial planning and the physical security of undersea infrastructure. It calls for a holistic rethinking of how the energy system is planned, constructed and managed,...

This Brief analyses reactive responses and proposes proactive solutions to the challenge of Russian aggression, with a focus on spatial planning and the physical security of undersea infrastructure. It calls for a holistic rethinking of how the energy system is planned, constructed and managed,...

As seldom before, the current war in Ukraine has seen the use of World War II analogies by belligerents and also some Western non-belligerents. They thereby follow in the footsteps of such political leaders as Anthony Eden, Margaret Thatcher, Joseph Stalin, or John F. Kennedy. Indeed, statesmen...

The essay examines the commercial and financial activities of Palla Strozzi, a Florentine merchant active in Lyon in the first half of the 16th century. A cousin of the leaders of the Florentine republican movement - the brothers Piero, Roberto and Leone Strozzi, allies of France against duke...

This study examines the economic legacy of civilian killings during the Korean War, which disproportionately targeted local elites, educated individuals, and their families. For identification, we exploit plausibly exogenous variation in the spatial distribution of killings driven by...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

This study aims to develop an analytical framework for understanding the social and economic outcomes of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine by studying its impact on the labor market and migration, the economy and trade, social capital, and volunteering in Ukraine. The main economic and...

Based on empirical evidence, this research: highlights the timeline of changes in Ukrainian agricultural sector since the onset of the full-scale war in 2022 and the maritime blockade affecting exports; examines the relevant transformation of the illegal grain market amid these extraordinary...

This article analyses aspects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in its international context from a game theory perspective, with particular attention to the possible use of the brinkmanship strategy by US President Donald Trump.

Vladimir Putin underestimated the war against Ukraine on several levels, both in terms of the response within Ukraine and, above all, in terms of the response from the US and Europe. What can we learn from this? What policies should Europe pursue? What signals should it send to Putin to prevent...

In post-war elections a large number of citizens vote for political parties with deep roots in the violent organizations of the past. However, despite the prevalence of rebel, militia, and military successor parties, their success varies dramatically. This study explores the correlates of civil...

Russia is going to great lengths to ensure that the war in Ukraine is perceived by its citizens as a distant military operation that does not affect them directly. But the consequences of both the war and the forced integration of the occupied Ukrainian territories are large-scale, diverse and...

A war consists of multiple battles, yet the theoretical literature of International Relations has given little attention to how battles relate within a war. By integrating two ultimatum games with private information played by an Aggressor and a Defender, we develop bargaining models of war with...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

The war in Ukraine triggered a big energy crisis, which particularly escalated in the winter of 2023 throughout all Europe. The crisis was a good opportunity for policymakers to encourage people to save electricity in the household. The aim of this paper is to analyse the changes in electricity...

This study is based on exploratory research to test the ability of artificial intelligence (AI) to shape human behaviour, testing on a recent geopolitical event, the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine. Thus, text, image and video were generated using artificial intelligence, tracking users'...