Economic resources are often seen as decisive for the outcomes of military conflicts. This paper asks whether “deeper pockets” help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

The war in Ukraine triggered a big energy crisis, which particularly escalated in the winter of 2023 throughout all Europe. The crisis was a good opportunity for policymakers to encourage people to save electricity in the household. The aim of this paper is to analyse the changes in electricity...

This paper examines the growth of military production in Russia since the onset of the war against Ukraine in February 2022. Utilizing official data from Rosstat, the study explores how military production is classified within Russian industrial output statistics. The analysis reveals...

The Russia-Ukraine war has challenged our understanding of corporate social responsibility (CSR). Whereas CSR is traditionally associated with business self-regulation that benefits business and society, the conflict has revealed new forms of what we call "partisan CSR." Based on comprehensive...

We experimentally study how economic prospects and power shifts affect the risk of conflict through a dynamic power rivalry game. Players decide whether to maintain the status quo or challenge a rival under declining, constant, or growing economic prospects. We find that conflict rates are...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

This study is based on exploratory research to test the ability of artificial intelligence (AI) to shape human behaviour, testing on a recent geopolitical event, the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine. Thus, text, image and video were generated using artificial intelligence, tracking users'...

This article analyses aspects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in its international context from a game theory perspective, with particular attention to the possible use of the brinkmanship strategy by US President Donald Trump.

Vladimir Putin underestimated the war against Ukraine on several levels, both in terms of the response within Ukraine and, above all, in terms of the response from the US and Europe. What can we learn from this? What policies should Europe pursue? What signals should it send to Putin to prevent...

We provide a selective overview of the literature on the linkages between interstate conflict and international trade, paying special attention to how trade openness (i) affects arming incentives, (ii) the channels through which its effects travel, and (iii) its consequences for the emergence of...

We consider a dynamic setting where two countries with competing claims to a resource/asset first arm and then choose whether to resolve their dispute through war or peacefully through settlement. War precludes international trade and can be destructive, but also locks gains and eliminates...

In post-war elections a large number of citizens vote for political parties with deep roots in the violent organizations of the past. However, despite the prevalence of rebel, militia, and military successor parties, their success varies dramatically. This study explores the correlates of civil...

In view of increasing geopolitical tensions, the economic consequences and costs of wars on the global economy are increasingly coming into focus. In their Kiel Policy Brief, the authors examine the costs of more than 150 wars since 1870. In the immediate theaters of war alone, real GDP falls by...

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, we offers insights into the far-reaching consequences of wars. Based on a new dataset on major conflicts since 1870, the findings show that wars cause a substantial decline in GDP and spike in inflation within war zones. Interestingly, countries...

Die explorative Studie beschäftigt sich mit der Integration ukrainischer Kriegsflüchtlinge in Arbeitsmarkt und Arbeitswelt in Deutschland. Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine sind oft ungewöhnlich hochqualifiziert und überwiegend weiblich, sie unterliegen auch weniger restriktiven Bedingungen als...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to soaring world market prices of many commodities with severe repercussions for many African countries. This study examines the implications of the 2022 world market price increases for wheat, fuels, and fertilizers for Ethiopia. Using a computable...

This study explores herding behavior in the cryptocurrency market during three major international crises: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Palestine-Israel conflict. The study uses daily closing prices of five major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, BNB, and...

This Policy Brief explores the status quo of migration in and out of Central Asia two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, focusing on anticipated and unexpected developments that continue to shape migration realities in this part of the Prague Process region.

No Russian election since Soviet times has been manipulated to the extent we are seeing in the 2024 “presidential election”. The political context is dictatorial, the regime’s power grab comprehensive. The media are subject to wartime censorship, and there is not even a pretence of...

Agricultural cooperation is seen as a way to solve collective action problems and has been associated with high social capital and other beneficial impacts in the countryside beyond productivity increases. But what if it comes into conflict with existing private concerns? The Irish dairy...

We analyze the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the partial military mobilization, and the Wagner Group rebellion on a broad set of sentiments in the Russian population, using the exogenous timing of surveys from Gallup World Poll and the Levada Center. Our results show strong rally...

The Standard Eurobarometer 101 (EB101) survey of spring 2024 was conducted from 2 April to 9 May in 38 countries or territories: the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU), eight candidate countries (Albania, Georgia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Türkiye and Bosnia and...

China-Russia joint military exercises should be taken seriously, considering their frequency, complexity and global reach. Some are designed for communication and political messaging, signalling displeasure with the US military presence in various regions and defence cooperation among Western...

In response to the unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine, the EU has imposed unprecedented sanctions against Russia, designed to: reduce the Kremlin's ability to finance the war; impose clear economic and political costs on Russia's political elite; diminish Russia's...

China-Russia joint military exercises should be taken seriously, considering their frequency, complexity and global reach. Some are designed for communication and political messaging, signalling displeasure with the US military presence in various regions and defence cooperation among Western...

The prospects for the Russian economy for the medium to long term are bleak. Russia is now a war economy, internationally isolated, over‑reliant on state support, and more dependent than ever on energy resources and on the import of technology from China.

The founding aspiration of European integration was to provide peace. Over the decades, commitment to democracy has become a feature of the EU, enshrined in the Treaty of Lisbon among its core values. At the same time, security, particularly after the failure of the European Defence Community in...

In response to the unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine, the EU has put in place unprecedented sanctions against Russia, designed to: reduce the Kremlin's ability to finance the war; impose clear economic and political costs on Russia's political elite; diminish Russia's...

2023 was mainly dominated by the two wars raging in the EU's neighbourhood. Ukraine managed to liberate half of the territory occupied by Russia in 2022 and unblock the Black Sea. However, Russia continued to attack and destroy the country. Ukraine must prevail because the core principles of the...