Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump’s second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

Saudi Arabia has mixed expectations ahead of Donald Trump’s imminent second presidency. On the one hand, the royal family maintains close business relations with the president-elect and his entourage, which could lead to privileged access to the White House. On the other hand, Trump’s Middle...

The rapid evolution of global trade offers great productivity gains to participating countries but also raises the likelihood of losing domestic resources through trade-based money laundering. This paper empirically examined whether trade-based money laundering affects domestic resource...

The study aims to critically assess the safe-haven properties of Bitcoin and a diverse set of commodities in mitigating stock market risks during periods of extreme financial turbulence. Specifically, this research seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of these assets as hedging tools or...

A common approach for estimating the macroeconomic effects of oil supply news employs SVAR-IV models identified using changes in oil futures prices around OPEC quota announcements as an instrument. However, we show that the reduced-form oil price innovations, structural shocks, and the...

This paper investigates the impact of oil price variations on sectoral inflation for a sample of 10 top oil importing and exporting countries. Specifically, we analyze the effects of oil prices on the consumer price index using monthly data spanning the July 2009 to February 2021 period. Two...

This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock price indices of four prominent OPEC oil-exporting members. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and regularized linear regression (RLR) are employed to address uncertainties arising from diferent estimation models and...

The OPEC governments mainly financed their budgets by relying on oil production, similar to many other governments globally. However, the world’s ongoing economic development, changes in countries’ political relationships, and exchange of sanctions could have adverse consequences for...

Our recent article on "The Road to Gaza" examined the history of the three supreme-God churches and the growing role of their militias in armed conflicts and wars around the world. The present paper situates these militia wars in the broader vista of the capitalist mode of power. Focusing...

This year’s key themes outlook focuses heavily on the resilience of hydrocarbon markets in the face of disruptions of many kinds; how sustainability and energy transition are becoming a strategic political objective that reaches well beyond the energy economy; and the technology elements of...

This paper investigates the impact of oil price variations on sectoral inflation for a sample of 10 top oil importing and exporting countries. Specifically, we analyze the effects of oil prices on the consumer price index using monthly data spanning the July 2009 to February 2021 period. Two...

Financial intermediation is one of the vital determinants of long-run economic growth. It might carry extra relevance in natural resource-rich developing economies, challenged by the long-term negative effects of windfall revenues, namely the resource curse. This study explores whether financial...

Crude oil is one of the sources by which budgets are financed in OPEC countries. However, the fall in oil prices in 2014 put their governments' finances under significant pressure. Healthcare was one of the sectors experiencing fiscal strain. This study examined the effect of a fall in oil...

This study explores the dynamic co-movement between oil and six stock markets (China, India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Canada) by using two types of wavelet analysis (wavelet multi-scale decomposition and wavelet coherence). The main empirical results are as follows: (1) Maximal overlap...

Part I of this Comment describes the OPEC practices that form the basis of opponents’ complaints, including OPEC member countries’ efforts to influence the world oil market and help oil producers achieve certain rates of return, as well as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade8...

In a world scale economy considering interlinkage and interactions between countries, economic shocks will affect various economies through channels. Meantime, the oil price is one of the most important channels. New studies show that the connection between the oil price and the world economy...

The current article aims to contribute to the debates on the linkages between oil price shock and exchange rates by asking: What are the impacts of shocks of oil supply, global demand, and oil-specific demand on exchange rates for OPEC's 13-member countries? To this purpose, the method of...

This study investigates why the exchange rates of oil-exporting countries do not follow the monetary model after the oil prices hikes in 2000. In empirical research, real GDP is considered as real output, while changes in oil rents are not included in GDP growth. However, in practice, oil rents...

With greater importance given to the climate change debate, energy has slowly attracted the complete attention of the whole world. The energy sector can be roughly divided into renewable energy, on the one hand, and fossil fuels, on the other. The former category is at the core of all the main...

The development and use of intelligent methods as an emerging trend is attracting attention in the academia and industries, including petroleum industry. Forecasting OPEC petroleum consumption can go to a greater extend in helping the management of OPEC to properly manage petroleum demand and...

Member countries of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are always in the news regarding the prices and supply of crude oil to the international market. One of the economic reasons for this is liquidity and the desire to accumulate international reserves by the respective...

The OPEC countries rely on oil to fund their budgets, similar to many countries worldwide. However, the fall in oil prices in 2008 and 2014 put significant strain on their public finances, including healthcare finances. This study examines the effect of the fall in oil prices on OPEC countries'...

This paper studies the historical importance of OPEC for oil price fluctuations. An event-study approach is used to identify the effects of OPEC announcements on oil price fluctuations. Results show that price volatility is higher than typical around OPEC meetings. Also, members' compliance, a...