I study how political parties affect representation in the U.S. House. To do so, I account for party pressure on the votes of members in an otherwise standard spatial model that uses roll call voting patterns to identify member ideologies. I simultaneously estimate voter ideologies from survey...

Das ZEW Mannheim hat in Kooperation mit der Süddeutschen Zeitung die finanziellen Auswirkungen von Reformvorschlägen der Parteien zur Bundestagswahl 2025 untersucht. Diese betreffen die Einkommensteuer und den Solidaritätszuschlag, die Vermögensteuer, das Bürgergeld, den Mindestlohn und...

Aggarwal et al. (2023) analyze the effects of an 8-month-long advertising program on voter turnout in the 2020 US presidential election. Therein, 2 million voters were exposed to pro-Biden and anti-Trump advertisements on social media in five battleground states. The study finds no average...

[Einleitung:] Das ZEW Mannheim hat in Kooperation mit der Süddeutschen Zeitung die finanziellen Auswirkungen von Reformvorschlägen der Parteien zur Bundestagswahl 2025 untersucht. Diese betreffen die Einkommensteuer und den Solidaritätszuschlag, die Vermögensteuer, das Bürgergeld, den...

How does the electoral success of a far-right political force shape the strategies and policy platforms of mainstream candidates? We answer this question by exploiting the political shock of the creation of the Front National, an anti-immigration party, in 1972 and its sudden electoral...

Das Gebot innerparteilicher Demokratie will die Grundlage für einen freien und gleichen Wettbewerb in den politischen Parteien schaffen. Mithilfe rechtsökonomischer Methoden und einer eigenen empirischen Studie untersucht Jacob Ulrich, ob das Parteienrecht und die Satzungen der Parteien den...

Moya Chin's (2023) paper argues that politicians in two-round majoritarian systems have to appeal more broadly than those in single-round elections. The author uses data for mayoral elections in Brazil. The key findings of the paper conclude that of two-round systems (1) fostering inclusiveness,...

Die Alterung der deutschen Bevölkerung führt in der umlagefinanzierten Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung zu höheren Beiträgen bei sinkendem Sicherungsniveau. Dies ließe sich bremsen, wenn mit steigender Regelaltersgrenze der Renteneintritt später erfolgte. Jedoch bevorzugt die Bevölkerung...

Lee (2022) evaluates whether elected officials update their policy positions based on expert evidence. His cross-subject and within-subject designs run in the American local and state policy-making context both confirm the capacity for politicians to update their beliefs in response to expert...

As fringe parties increasingly capture a larger portion of the votes, the issue of how centrist parties can set themselves apart from these extremes while establishing distinct characteristics has become more prominent in public and political debates. Despite analyses of programmatic overlaps...

Intra-party contests, such as the US primaries, are often used to select a candidate for a subsequent cross-party election. A more accurate selection may improve the quality of the candidate but detract more resources from the subsequent campaign. We model this trade-off as a problem of contest...

Intra-party contests, such as the US primaries, are often used to select a candidate for a subsequent cross-party election. A more accurate selection may improve the quality of the candidate but detract more resources from the subsequent campaign. We model this trade-off as a problem of contest...

Die Alterung der deutschen Bevölkerung führt in der umlagefinanzierten Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung zu höheren Beiträgen bei sinkendem Sicherungsniveau. Dies ließe sich bremsen, wenn mit steigender Regelaltersgrenze der Renteneintritt später erfolgte. Jedoch bevorzugt die Bevölkerung...

In turbulent times, political labels become increasingly uninformative about politicians' true policy preferences or their ability to withstand the influence of special interest groups. We offer a model in which politicians use campaign rhetoric to signal their political preferences in multiple...

We develop a model of elections in which parties choose their ideological position and the ideology of their candidates. Tighter candidate selection reduces policy uncertainty for voters. We show that weak institutional constraints, as in a Presidential regime, induce parties to allow their...

Die NSDAP kopierte nicht nur von Anfang an den Stil der Arbeiterbewegung, sondernverlagerte auch den Schwerpunkt ihrer Propaganda ab 1928 von nationalistischer Außenpolitikauf innenpolitische und soziale Fragen. Bis 1932 wurde diese Ausrichtung jedoch durchkein wirtschaftspolitisches Programm...

U.S. congressional roll-call voting records show that as polarization of the two parties along the economic dimension changes, polarization along the social/cultural dimension tends to change in the opposite direction. A model of party competition within a two-dimensional ideology space is...

We study the effects of social media political advertising by randomizing subsets of 36,906 Facebook users and 25,925 Instagram users to have political ads removed from their news feeds for six weeks before the 2020 US presidential election. We show that most presidential ads were targeted...

Das Gebot innerparteilicher Demokratie will die Grundlage für einen freien und gleichen Wettbewerb in den politischen Parteien schaffen. Mithilfe rechtsökonomischer Methoden und einer eigenen empirischen Studie untersucht Jacob Ulrich, ob das Parteienrecht und die Satzungen der Parteien den...

Elections select officeholders and policies, but they also signal to political actors where to invest their time and money. This paper presents a framework for understanding these effects, in which political investors (e.g., donors, activists) allocate resources where expected political...

In a world of Downsian convergence, economic policy and economic outcomes are unaffected by the identity of the governing political party. We do not live in this world. Advanced Western democracies exhibit marked divergence between parties, and consequently, policies and outcomes oscillate with...

Democratic representation is constrained by the alternatives available to voters. In this paper, we develop a methodology to gauge the extent to which the "supply side" of politics hinders voter welfare. Using rich data on thousands of candidates in three Brazilian legislative elections, we...

Wirtschaftspolitik in einer sozialen Marktwirtschaft möchte Wohlstand schaffen und verteilen. Dies zeigt sich in den Wahl- und Regierungsprogrammen auf Bundesebene seit 2002, allerdings mit sehr unterschiedlichen Akzenten. Zur Analyse wird deshalb die relative Häufigkeit der Begriffe...

In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and parliamentary elections...

How important are political parties in motivating and disciplining elected officials? Using a difference-in-discontinuity design, we study how shocks to incumbents're-election probabilities affect legislative behavior in a setting where parties fully control candidate selection. We find that...

The role of citizens' initiatives figures prominently in contemporary debates on constitutional change. A basic question is why are initiatives necessary in a representative democracy where candidates must already compete for the right to control policy? This paper offers one answer to this...

Luisa Dörr prepared this study while she was working at the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. The study was completed in February 2022 and accepted as doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the University of Munich. It consists of three distinct empirical essays...

Wirtschaftspolitik in einer sozialen Marktwirtschaft möchte Wohlstand schaffen und verteilen. Dies zeigt sich in den Wahl- und Regierungsprogrammen auf Bundesebene seit 2002, allerdings mit sehr unterschiedlichen Akzenten. Zur Analyse wird deshalb die relative Häufigkeit der Begriffe...

Individual members of Congress can have different policy preferences from the party leadership or special interest groups (SIGs), and the latter two may pressure members to shift their positions. To study this tension, we develop and estimate a multi-stage election model that incorporates party...

We develop a model of elections in which parties choose their ideological position and the ideology of their candidates. Tighter candidate selection reduces policy uncertainty for voters. We show that weak institutional con- straints, as in a Presidential regime, induce parties to allow their...