We study why inflation responds differently to economic activity over time. Using survey data covering the universe of Japanese firms, we show that firms are unable to perfectly distinguish aggregate from sector-specific demand changes, leading to positively correlated expectations about these...

This paper employs disaggregated panel data to examine the evolution of Thailand's Phillips Curve (PC) before and during the pandemic, providing empirical evidence on the nature of Thai inflation dynamics and their implications for optimal monetary policy formulation. Utilizing the real output...

Sticky-price firms do not merely underreact to ambiguous competitor prices - they actively lean against them. Above an inflation threshold, signals clear and firms reverse to follow. Existing information-friction models restrict weights between zero and one, ruling out this negative...

Evidence since the XIX century shows that whereas the demand for M1 is uniformly stable (Benati, Lucas, Nicolini, and Weber, 2021), the demand for broader aggregates is stable under monetary regimes making inflation strongly mean-reverting-such as the Gold Standard and inflation-targeting-but it...

This research aimed to identify existence of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Vietnam. The examined period was 2012Q2 - 2025Q2, using secondary macroeconomics data and the Generalised Moments Method at 95% level of confidence. The dependent variables were price inflation and wage inflation,...

Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of inflation for forecasting. SOC decomposes inflation into cyclical components,...

This paper employs a joint SVAR-IV model for the United States and the euro area to estimate the pass-through of energy and food commodity cost shocks to inflation. Exogenous commodity cost shocks - such as those triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine - had only a modest impact on...

We examine the state dependence of monetary policy transmission and the parameters of the Phillips curve, dynamic IS equation, and Taylor rule across four regimes defined by joint deviations of inflation from the Federal Reserve's target and output from potential. The analysis uncovers important...

We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable New Key-nesian DSGE-model with an emission externality. Empirically, emissions are strongly pro-cyclical and output in the flexible price equilibrium overreacts to productivity shocks, relative to the efficient allocation. At the same...

I produce novel evidence on worker reallocation across employers and between employment and nonemployment/unemployment for several European countries over the past two decades. I construct a dataset of monthly transition rates by developing a novel approach to measure them using cross-sectional...

We propose a state-dependent Phillips curve (PC) where the regime has changed endogenously. Using this framework, a free-standing PC is constructed. This study tests the robustness of the model, various types of inflation, slack measures, and various expectation measures. The PC is found to work...

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends while also accounting for short-term fluctuations. Combining these...

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in Mexico between 2005 and 2020 using city level data. We overcome the endogeneity of unemployment and core inflation through a panel instrumental variable strategy. Time-period fixed effects account for aggregate supply, demand, and expectation...

We find that, while different models used to estimate the output gap in five major emerging economies show similar trends over time, they lead to different conclusions about how well the output gap can predict inflation. This suggests that the choice of model can significantly impact the...

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the euro area, allowing for nonlinearities – or kinks – in the relationship between labor market slack and inflation. We exploit cross-country variation in labor market conditions in the period 2001–2024, absorbing aggregate shocks and...

This research extends the literature on the environmental Phillips curve (EPC) and environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) by focusing on the 38 member economies of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Using panel data from 2000 to 2021, the study employs several...

Building on a New Keynesian rational expectations framework, we develop a structural empirical model that jointly determines the real exchange rate, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in a small open economy. Employing a full-information system design and estimation approach that avoids...