This study examines the determinants of inflation volatility in Tunisia, focusing on central bank independence (CBI), economic transparency, and macroeconomic fundamentals. Although CBI is widely regarded as essential for monetary credibility, its effectiveness depends on its institutional...

This article offers a structural reappraisal of central bank Monetary Policy Transparency (MPT) by explicitly incorporating two dimensions that have long remained peripheral in the literature: Accounting Information Transparency (AIT) and Financial Stability Transparency (FST). Building on a...

Communication with the market to guide public expectations has become a pivotal monetary policy instrument for central banks worldwide. Therefore, assessing the efficacy of communication in influencing personal expectations is essential for central banks. To examine the effectiveness of...

We study how inflation expectations can be anchored through different forms of communication and whether such anchoring survives political change. Using a two-wave panel RCT around the 2025 German federal election, we show that providing the ECB's target and projections lowers expectations by...

Most empirical research on the effects of transparency on monetary policy committees is based on a natural experiment in 1993 at the Federal Reserve, when it was decided that transcripts of meetings would be released with a five-year lag. Evidence is found of both a conformity effect (reluctance...

We consider two trade-offs inherent to extraordinary forward guidance (EFG): potency versus flexibility, and the credibility of forward guidance versus the credibility of inflation targeting.We argue that the form of EFG used by the Bank of Canada during the COVID‑19 pandemic balanced both...

Professional forecasters' long-run inflation expectations overreact to news and exhibit persistent, predictable biases in forecast errors. A model incorporating overconfidence in private information and a persistent expectations bias-which generates persistent forecast errors across most...

This paper examines the impact of political polarization on public trust in the Fed and its influence on macroeconomic expectations. Using a large-scale survey experiment which we fielded on President Trump’s 2025 inauguration day, we study how households form beliefs about the Fed regarding...

This report presents an analysis of the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan's (CBA) communication framework and offers recommendations for enhancement. The technical assistance mission, led by the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department, aimed to modernize the CBA's communication...

We study the evolution of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy since July 2021, following the adoption of a new strategy and amid a period of volatile inflation. Utilizing text analysis, we assess changes in the general sentiment of the ECB's communication. Additionally, we employ...

This paper investigates the responsiveness of US equity sectors to the sentiments conveyed by the speeches of the governors of the US Federal Reserve (the Fed). Using principal component analysis of the scores of four Lexicon dictionaries to analyze speeches from June 1, 1996, to September 30,...

Identifying the causal effects of monetary policy is challenging due to the endogeneity of policy decisions. In recent years, high-frequency monetary policy surprises have become a popular identification strategy. To serve as a valid instrument, monetary policy surprises must be correlated with...

In this paper, we propose a new set of indicators of Central Bank's communication to estimate speech intensity in five different macroeconomic fields: monetary conditions, financial stability, external competitiveness, labour and social conditions and economic activity. In addition, we also...

We review the design and communication of monetary policy strategies that take into account risks and uncertainty. A key element in a robust monetary strategy is the concept of risk management, which is the weighing of key risks when setting policy. When risks to the outlook are balanced, the...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) communication in shaping market expectations and real economic outcomes. Using a transformer-based large language model (LLM) fine-tuned to ECB communication, the tone of monetary policy statements from 2003 to 2025...

This paper discusses the detailed review report of Republic of Moldova's Central Bank Transparency Code review. The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) has emerged from a challenging history regarding trust and accountability, significantly influencing its current transparency and communication...

This paper presents a detailed review report of Montenegro's Central Bank Transparency Code review. The transparency of the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBCG)'s legal framework, its mandate, autonomy, and decision-making arrangements have all been strengthened over time, but further improvements...

At the request of the Central Bank of Suriname (CBvS), this technical assistance (TA) mission assessed and provided recommendations to enhance the transparency, consistency, and stakeholder engagement of monetary policy and financial stability communication. Strengthening communication in these...

The technical assistance mission evaluated the Central Bank of Suriname's (CBvS) communication on monetary policy and financial stability to enhance transparency, consistency, and stakeholder engagement. Recommendations include institutionalizing structured decision-making with fixed schedules...

This paper introduces a classification framework to analyze central bank communications across four dimensions: topic, communication stance, sentiment, and audience. Using a fine-tuned large language model trained on central bank documents, we classify individual sentences to transform policy...

The Central Bank of Oman (CBO) has a strong focus on transparency, building on the Omani Vision 2040. In line with the country's long-term vision, Vision 2040 (see Box 1), the CBO is committed to enhancing its policies and operations in line with international best practices. The Central Bank...

In this comment, we computationally reproduce the results of Linos et al. (2024), which shows contrary to researcher and practitioner predictions, that formal government communications are more effective at influencing resident behavior than informal government communications. We succeeded in...