Geopolitical conflicts generate macroeconomic spillovers that extend beyond directly affected countries through trade and commodity linkages. This paper quantifies these effects for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using a monthly Trade-Related Conflict Exposure (TRCE) index for 2009–2023...

This paper estimates the causal effect of renewable water conditions and water use on violent conflict in rural agrifood systems. We implement a fixed-effects instrumental variables strategy that uses plausibly exogenous temperature and precipitation shocks to instrument multiple water outcomes....

The world economy remained robust in 2025 despite the strains caused by the trade conflicts and the resulting increased uncertainty and entered the new year with decent momentum. However, the war with Iran now threatens to severely disrupt energy supplies, with potentially serious consequences...

This study examines the relationship between conflict events, conflict-related fatalities, and entrepreneurial intentions in Iraq, one of the most war-affected countries over the past four decades and a context largely overlooked in the entrepreneurship literature. By combining regional-level...

While the populations of wealthy modern states primarily identify with their nation, middle- and low-income countries often contain large populations that adhere to distinct subnational identities. We model a central government elite that has a conflictual relationship with its “tribal...

This article studies the role of environmental and religious factors in the occurrence of pastoralist conflict in Nigeria using panel data at the 0.5 x 0.5° grid cell level between 1997 and 2020. The empirical analysis provides robust evidence that the occurrence of droughts does not raise the...

We estimate the impact of infrastructure investment on conflict using 163 hydroelectric dams in Brazil (2002–2022). Leveraging the staggered rollout of construction in a difference-in-differences framework, we find that dams trigger sharp, temporary surges in land invasions, water disputes,...

Does the outbreak of a major international war change political discourse? Drawing on theories of political communication and elite cueing, identity salience, and threat perception, we hypothesize that the outbreak of a war of aggression by a major power increases the use of nationalist rhetoric...

How do violent conflicts shape cross-border lending? Using syndicated loan data on 14,021 creditors and 97,169 firms across 179 countries, we document a dual response. Relative to domestic creditors, foreign lenders reduce overall lending by 27% (supplydriven) but increase lending to...

We provide a selective overview of the literature on the linkages between interstate conflict and international trade, paying special attention to how trade openness (i) affects arming incentives, (ii) the channels through which its effects travel, and (iii) its consequences for the emergence of...

We consider a dynamic setting where two countries with competing claims to a resource/asset first arm and then choose whether to resolve their dispute through war or peacefully through settlement. War precludes international trade and can be destructive, but also locks gains and eliminates...

Economic resources are often seen as decisive for the outcomes of military conflicts. This paper asks whether “deeper pockets” help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal...

Civil wars often erode state sovereignty, as institutions are replaced or co-opted by armed groups that establish informal governance structures. Among these, rebel taxation emerges as a key tool for financing wartime activities and administering territories. We explore whether rebel taxation...

Despite growing attention being paid to the societal impacts of violent conflict, little is known about how exposure thereto shapes gender attitudes, particularly in Africa. This study addresses that gap by examining the relationship between exposure to violent conflict and attitudes toward...

The revival of economic nationalism poses a challenge to neoclassical orthodoxy, which claims that liberalized international trade is (subject to a few recognized exceptions) inherently cooperative and mutually beneficial. Post-Keynesian open economy models demonstrate that international trade...

We introduce political salience into a canonical model of attacks against political regimes, as scaling agents’ expressive payoffs from taking sides. Equilibrium balances heterogeneous expressive concerns with material bandwagoning incentives. We examine comparative statics in salience that...

Since its independence in 2011, South Sudan has confronted persistent challenges from conflict and climate change, profoundly disrupting its economic and social stability. This study analyzes the economic impacts of conflict and climate shocks-specifically floods and droughts-on South Sudan from...

We examine the intersection of two subfields within political economy: geoeconomics and conflict. Geoeconomics is primarily concerned with the use of "economic weapons " of coercion, while the conflict literature mainly focuses on military weapons and war. We propose bridging these two...

We investigate how exposure to conflict events shapes individuals' democratic preferences, focusing on support for democracy in general and perceptions of governance within one's own country. We examine how ethnic affiliation - whether an individual belongs to an ethnic group with access to...

Little is known about the effects of political conflicts on the status of women in society. Polarizing attitudes might have a differential effect on women's lives after a conflict. To consider this, the case of Greece after the Second World War is exploited, when the country became highly...

This paper examines the compounded effects of conflict on household recovery following disasters, using Nigeria as a case study. The analysis employs the "Unbreakable" microsimulation model to analyze how proximity to conflict influences recovery rates and well-being, measured by consumption...

Using novel scenario-based survey questions that randomize the expected duration of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Middle East conflict, we examine the causal impact of geopolitical risk on consumers’ beliefs about aggregate economic conditions and their own financial outlook. Expecting a...

Colombia’s prolonged conflict has made the country one of the most affected by forced internal displacement (FID) in the world. This study examines the impact of the FARC’s 2014 unilateral and permanent ceasefire on FID. We use a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the timing of...