Since 2018, tariffs have re-emerged as a tool for protecting domestic economies, particularly in the US. This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of various import tariff scenarios using a four-region dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi-sectoral production network....

How do import tariffs affect employment? We develop an empirical strategy to identify the effects of tariffs using difference-in-differences, comparing anti-dumping (AD) investigations resulting in dumping tariffs to those not resulting in dumping tariffs. We find that an AD tariff decreases...

Using Chinese firm-level trade data combined with global anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations, we uncover a previously overlooked cost of industrial policy under WTO agreements. At every stage of AD/CVD investigation, subsidies significantly raise the probability of...

Debates on the EU's economy focus on the competitiveness gap, a narrative that encourages export-first policies. This is the wrong focus, as prosperity depends mainly on domestic productivity. Therefore, the EU's key challenges are weak productivity and, more recently, economic security. Trade...

The return of trade policy as an instrument of geopolitics has raised concerns about the future of the global trading system. But Trump's tariffs of 2025 have not led to a collapse of global trade. The key reason for this resilience is that Trump's tariffs are discriminatory, i.e. the US has a...

We study how trade wars propagate to countries that are not directly targeted. We develop a three-country New Keynesian model with trade in final and intermediate goods, incomplete asset markets, and asymmetric monetary regimes, and quantify the spillovers of the 2025 U.S.-China tariff...

Mit der Neuordnung der internationalen Lieferketten hat Mexiko als Standort für neue Auslandsinvestitionen an Bedeutung gewonnen. Das Land konnte vom Nearshoring profitieren, das heißt von der Verlagerung von Dienstleistungen oder Produktionsprozessen in die Nähe der Konsumentenmärkte. Damit...

The decline in international trade following the financial crisis suggests a shift in globalisation and a transformation of the international economic order. Protectionist trade policies have gained prominence as certain major economies increasingly implement tariffs to safeguard domestic...

This Policy Brief examines economic experts' expectations about the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, based on the 2025Q2 and 2025Q3 waves of the Economic Expert Survey (EES). The survey collected responses from over 600 economists across EU member states and...

This paper analyzes the welfare impacts of import bans in Nigeria, and how these are shaped by evasion. Bans were not effectively enforced, and contributed to informal trade. The imposition of bans nonetheless increased consumer prices by 5.8% on average. However, price increases are...

On 1 March 2018, President Trump declared a 25% tariff on certain steel imports by invoking Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act. The tariff pitted two of America's most storied and interconnected industries, steel and auto producers, against one another and made allies out of longtime...

Recent trade wars have confronted the trade policy literature with a major puzzle. How can we explain protectionist tendencies in the context of global economic integration? In this article, I aim to provide an answer to the question why, and under which conditions, internationally oriented...

This article examines the underlying motives behind the United States' trade and technological conflict with China since 2018. While the measures undertaken-ranging from tariffs and export controls to investment screening and industrial policy-are often interpreted through the lens of economic...

Mit der Neuordnung der internationalen Lieferketten hat Mexiko als Standort für neue Auslandsinvestitionen an Bedeutung gewonnen. Das Land konnte vom Nearshoring profitieren, das heißt von der Verlagerung von Dienstleistungen oder Produktionsprozessen in die Nähe der Konsumentenmärkte. Damit...

This Policy Brief examines economic expertsʼ expectations about the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, based on the 2025Q2 and 2025Q3 waves of the Economic Expert Survey (EES). The survey collected responses from over 600 economists across EU member states and...

US trade policy has taken a sharp turn away from multilateralism, with sweeping new tariffs posing a serious threat to global supply chains. As the US remains the EU’s largest export market for goods, these measures carry significant repercussions for the bloc. Exports to the US are heavily...

This paper examines the impact of US protectionist trade policies on the euro area economy, focusing on macroeconomic and financial repercussions. While direct tariff effects are mitigated by exchange rate adjustments and ECB policies, broader risks arise from global trade disruptions and...

This paper examines the impact of US protectionist trade policies on the euro area economy, focusing on macroeconomic and financial repercussions. While direct tariff effects are mitigated by exchange rate adjustments and ECB policies, broader risks arise from global trade disruptions and...

The smallest of decisions one makes is based on some information. Information such as facts and figures, invoices, customer feedbacks, etc. gathered throughout a business's operations is what makes up data.Data in its raw form is useless unless it is managed. The process of gathering, arranging,...

The smallest of decisions one makes is based on some information. Information such as facts and figures, invoices, customer feedbacks, etc. gathered throughout a business's operations is what makes up data.Data in its raw form is useless unless it is managed. The process of gathering, arranging,...

Trump's renewed tariffs on traditional allies-including the EU, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil-signal a return to aggressive protectionism, openly disregarding WTO rules and threatening the stability of the global trade system. The authors argue that unilateral retaliation by individual countries is...

The United States (US) and European Union (EU) are at risk of entering a full-blown trade war. Three months ago, on "Liberation Day", US President Donald Trump imposed high import tariffs on almost all countries, including the EU. He then suspended them at short notice to negotiate with over 90...

L'un des objectifs de la politique économique menée par l’administration Trump consiste à revitaliser le tissu industriel américain et à créer un grand nombre d'emplois bien rémunérés pour les cols bleus. Le principal instrument engagé pour l’atteindre, la protection tarifaire, est...

One of the objectives of the Trump administration's economic policy is to revitalise the American industrial fabric and create a large number of high-paying blue-collar jobs. However, the main instrument used to achieve this goal - tariff protection - is a point of contention. We discuss the...

Explaining President Trump's "Liberation-day" tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, Stephen Miran, President Trump's chairman of the council of economic advisors suggested that countries accept the U.S. tariffs without retaliation to come to a fair "burden sharing"(Miran: 2025). History shows that this...