Key aggregate figures on Austria's agriculture and forestry sectors show little change for 2024 compared to the previous year, although there were significant fluctuations in individual commodity markets, such as sugar beet. In foreign trade in agricultural goods and foodstuffs, imports expanded...

This study investigates the main drivers of inflation measured by CPI inflation and GDP deflator across 20 advanced and emerging economies over the yearly span from 2014 to 2023. Using Principal Component Analysis and Panel Vector Autoregression, the research examines the roles of supply-side...

Consensus holds that Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) engage in procyclical fiscal behavior. We emphasize that considering conditional responses to macroeconomic shocks is crucial when evaluating fiscal cyclicality, as neglecting this can result in significant biases. This study...

This study examines a hybrid forecasting framework to evaluate the predictive performance of time series models (ARIMA, VAR), deep learning (LSTM), and stochastic simulations (GBM, FBM, BB) in forecasting agricultural commodity prices during global crises. Using daily data from 1985 to 2024, the...

When wealth or income rises suddenly, the propensity for that "easy money" to be directed towards unproductive use, "easy spending", may rise. The cross-country relationship between conspicuous consumption and revenue windfalls is explored by estimating the response of demand for imports of...

We develop an indirect inference approach relying on a linear supply and demand model serving as an auxiliary model to provide the first full empirical test of the rational expectations commodity storage model. We build a rich storage model that incorporates a supply response and four structural...

Countries facing commodity (net) export price shocks tend to implement fiscal rules and to financially close their economies, demonstrating "macroeconomic prudence". These effects are (unsurprisingly) asymmetric between import and export price shocks. The impact of commodity (net) export prices...

This paper investigates the effect of commodity price shocks in a commodity-exporting small open economy, and the role of fiscal policy in transmitting these shocks to the rest of the economy. Using South African data, we first estimate an empirical model using a Bayesian vector autoregression...

An early analysis of the imperialist implications of the surge of global commodity prices was conducted in 2014 by Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler. However, their analysis did not consider how the US monetary and fiscal expansionist policies have contributed to the rise of global commodity...

This study investigates the relationship between gold prices, agricultural commodity prices (rice, flour, bean, chickpea, lentil, and sugar), and Turkish stock markets. Using the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test and wavelet coherency approach, we find that gold prices significantly influence...

Economic resources are often seen as decisive for the outcomes of military conflicts. This paper asks whether “deeper pockets” help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal...

This study investigates the disconnect between falling agricultural commodity prices and persistent food inflation by applying a Heterogeneous Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to a panel of 203 countries using data from 1961 to 2022. It analyzes the impact of global crops, fertilizer, and oil...

I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The...

This paper analyzes the effect of commodity price fluctuations on a commodity-exporting economy. Using Chilean and international copper market data, I find that positive copper price changes resulting from copper-specific demand shocks generate a broad GDP expansion, with no visible decline in...

Understanding the impact of macroeconomic variables on China’s green bond market is crucial for developing effective policies and strategies that promote sustainable finance. This study examines the influence of economic policy uncertainty, financial market volatility, exchange rates, and...

As the uncertainty of the global economy intensifies, domestic real economy risks and financial risks may interact and worsen under international risk shocks. Commodity prices are an important channel for transmitting international economic and financial risks. Taking January 2007 to July 2021...

Die Entwicklung der globalen Rohstoffpreise zeichnete sich in den vergangenen Jahren durch eine starke Dynamik aus. Im Zuge der Erholung vom pandemiebedingten Einbruch der Weltwirtschaft kam es zu deutlichen Preisanstiegen bei einer Vielzahl von Gütern und Lieferschwierigkeiten bei Vorprodukten...

Die Entwicklung der globalen Rohstoffpreise zeichnete sich in den vergangenen Jahren durch eine starke Dynamik aus. Im Zuge der Erholung vom pandemiebedingten Einbruch der Weltwirtschaft kam es zu deutlichen Preisanstiegen bei einer Vielzahl von Gütern und Lieferschwierigkeiten bei Vorprodukten...

This study investigates the factors influencing food inflation in Turkey, employing both endogenous and exogenous models and integrating major literature findings. Utilizing monthly data from February 2007 to November 2023, standardized for analysis, it explores the relationship between food...