This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road...

This study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on crude oil tail risk using the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) framework. We analyzed 2364 daily observations of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures spanning 1 January 2015 to 11 December 2023, thereby...

The weaponization of agricultural trade has once again emerged as critical in the study of modern geopolitics due to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Although Russia has used its wheat exports as a means of enhancing its geopolitical influence over countries in the Global South, evidence...

Russia's isolation from global financial markets and government programmes to support bank lending initially fuelled a wartime lending boom in Russia. With economic growth now stalled and borrowing costs rising, lending growth has slowed. This shift, in conjunction with increased public sector...

A series of scandals in Ukraine has shown that Russia’s war of aggression has not put an end to corruption in the country. Although Ukraine’s specialised institutions play an important role in combating corruption, the country’s governance model does not yet meet the requirements of the...

Since Russia launched its full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine in 2022, the European Union (EU) has pursued its enlargement policy as part of a geopolitical approach. According to the European Commission and candidate states, the EU could admit new members from 2028 onwards, while...

This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road...

A credible EU enlargement policy remains necessary from a geopolitical perspective, but can only succeed through a more pragmatic and gradual integration approach. New members amplify the existing challenges to EU decision making, rule-of-law conditionality and political cohesion, particularly...

The Pax Americana, which guaranteed the security of Germany and Europe after the Second World War, is coming to an end. Europe can no longer rely on its alliance and partnership with the United States. Even before Donald Trump’s second presidency, Europe was seeking to reduce its dependency on...

Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use...

The acquisition of Greenland has repeatedly been a topic of discussion within US government circles since the 19th century. That is because of the island’s strategic loca­tion and its resources. In the summer of 2019, US President Donald Trump made his first bid to purchase Greenland from the...

The evolving geopolitical landscape has placed South Africa at a crossroads, torn between its historical ties to the West and its growing relationships with BRICS+ nations, particularly China and Russia. The country's recent political shift, marked by the African National Congress (ANC) losing...

This paper aims to investigate the sensitivity of the gas market: Russian Natural Gas and Liquefied Gas, to other commodity categories. It sheds light on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis by using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model on daily prices of Russian Natural Gas, Liquefied Natural Gas,...

Space capabilities are a core element of any modern defence arsenal. In Europe, how­ever, military space capabilities are limited and dependence on the United States remains high. Europe must develop its capabilities in order to reduce dependencies and enhance its capacity to act on its own,...

This paper formalizes the geopolitical externality of climate policy and estimates its plausible magnitudes. Specifically, domestic reductions in fossil fuel demand depress global prices, thereby lowering export revenues for resource-rich autocracies - many of which allocate substantial...

Purpose This study examines whether CEO power influences the book-based and market-based performance of Russian companies when it is restricted by the presence of essential shareholders, namely, state and influential businessmen. Design/methodology/approach Managerial power is divided into...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

Russia's war of aggression, which has brought wide destruction and loss to Ukraine, has also transformed the Russian economy in significant ways. The Russian government's role in the economy has grown, with an ever-increasing amount of economic resources allocated to the war effort. The...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

With the Green Deal, the European Union (EU) has not only significantly increased the ambition of its climate policy in recent years, but it has also added an international dimension to European domestic climate policy. In fact, numerous recently adopted legal acts directly or indirectly affect...

Driven by both political camps in Seoul, relations between South Korea and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have deepened significantly since their initiation in 2005. While this intensified relationship was shaped to a large extent by geopolitical developments and increasing...

Apart from several infrastructure projects which ultimately failed, and a surprise visit by the icebreaker Xuelong off the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk, the People's Repub­lic of China has long maintained a cautious and reserved presence in the Arctic in the shadow of Russia and its fleet of...

On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The collapse of the family dictatorship was made possible by shifts in regional and international power dynamics. Key factors included Turkish support for the rebels, the...

On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The transitional government under Ahmad al-Sharaa now faces enormous economic, social and political challenges. It has yet to establish control over the country as a whole; and...

This paper examines the current dependencies and exposures of the euro area's financial sector in a context of rising geopolitical tensions. Focusing on Russia, China, and the Middle East, we analyze direct exposures through lending and securities holdings of banks and large investors. Our...

The sharing economy has gained significant attention both internationally and in Russia. This involves the integration of innovative technologies into national economic systems to promote economic growth and environmental sustainability. The introduction of sharing economy principles has led to...

This paper examines the growth of military production in Russia since the onset of the war against Ukraine in February 2022. Utilizing official data from Rosstat, the study explores how military production is classified within Russian industrial output statistics. The analysis reveals...

This Policy Brief examines the economic well-being of Russian households in the wake of warrelated sanctions, leveraging ten years of data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Building on macroeconomic indicators suggesting resilience, we analyze subjective wellbeing,...

Despite the formal absence of sanctions, gas trade between Russia and the EU has effectively collapsed over the past three and a half years. This has been the outcome of several factors: the EU strategy of reducing dependence on Russian gas, Russia's own supply cuts, physical damage to the...

We propose a sentiment-based financial stress index (S-FSI) for Russia from January 2018 to June 2024. The index is based on the intensity of internet searches in Russian via Google and Yandex for terms with negative connotations about financial stability. The terms in our index form a unique...

We explore the impact of fear on demand for government intervention. Our empirical strategy takes advantage of a unique quasi-experiment: During our survey in Russia, a very popular television program misreported the riskiness of the Covid-19 virus, thereby providing short-term exogenous...