We approximate the finite-sample distribution of impulse response function (IRF) estimators that are just-identified with a weak instrument using the conventional local-to-zero asymptotic framework. Since the distribution lacks a mean, we assess bias using the mode and conclude that researchers...

Purpose - Egypt could face total water depletion by 2050 due to the current waterscarcity of aboutseven billion cubic meters. Climatic shocks worsen this crisis, alongside Ethiopia's unilateral construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This has caused a stalemate, raising...

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) provide a transparent framework for encoding causal structures and identifying causal effects. This paper demonstrates how DAGs help specify local projections (LPs) for estimating causal impulse responses. Examples illustrate how graphical rules can be used to...

Using world commodity prices as an instrument, this paper proposes a novel method for decomposing channels of international risk sharing for commodity-exporting countries. The method identifies the commodity “sector”' as the projection of gross national product growth on commodity-price...

Medical spending is highly concentrated at the end of life and varies widely across patients, raising a first-order welfare question about whether marginal end-of-life spending reflects waste or generates meaningful benefits. Using Austrian administrative data, we document that endof- life...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global risk shocks (GRS) in a small open economy and their implications for the identification of monetary policy shocks. I construct a novel proxy for GRS based on unexpected daily innovations in the VIX and employ it as an external instrument in...

Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use...

We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together...

The predictability of monetary policy surprises based on past, public information has been interpreted in two related yet fundamentally different ways. The "Fed information effect" posits that it arises due to markets updating their view of the economy, based on signals implicitly revealed by...

We use CPI micro data for nine euro area countries to document new evidence on consumer price stickiness in the euro area during the 2021-2024 inflation cycle. In 2022, the monthly frequency of price changes reached 12%, compared with an average of 8% over 2010-2019, roughly a...

I study how the cognitive demands of financial planning shape household decisionmaking with respect to consumption out of windfall income shocks. I build a quantitative model of bounded rationality in which reoptimization is costly. Households respond to windfall income shocks by choosing a...

Workforce adjustments, such as mass layoffs, are significant corporate events that can influence stock returns and volatility, yet their broader asset-pricing implications remain underexplored. We examine the impact of such workforce shocks on stock performance from an asset-pricing perspective....

This study, set against the backdrop of escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, examines the impact of soybean tariff adjustments on the abnormal asymmetric behavior in the futures market. By employing specialized analytical methods that capture market volatility asymmetry...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global copper supply shocks. We identify exogenous disruptions to copper supply using a Bayesian structural VAR of the world copper market that combines sign and narrative restrictions. We then trace the international transmission of the identified...

We use CPI micro data for nine euro area countries to document new evidence on consumer price stickiness in the euro area during the 2021-2024 inflation cycle. In 2022, the monthly frequency of price changes reached 12%, compared with an average of 8% over 2010-2019, roughly a...

We investigate the impact of structural shocks on the joint distribution of future real GDP growth and inflation in the euro area. We model the conditional mean of these variables, along with selected financial indicators, using a VAR and perform quantile regressions on the VAR residuals to...

We develop a Trend-Cycle Bayesian VAR that jointly estimates the real neutral rate of interest, r∗t , and identifies monetary policy shocks. A key innovation is that cyclical shocks, notably monetary policy shocks, can affect the trend of macroeconomic variables, providing a way to assess...

This paper examines how monetary tightening transmits to bank credit supply through deposit funding conditions during the 2022-23 cycle. Using a quarterly panel of more than 3,800 US commercial banks, it constructs predetermined exposure indices measuring depositor sophistication, branch...

This paper examines how shifts in investor demand influence firm financing and investment decisions. For identification, the paper exploits a large-scale MSCI methodo logical reform that mechanically redefined the stock weights in major international equity benchmark indexes, changing the...

We study optimal monetary and exchange rate policy in a small open economy facing oil price shocks. In a model with segmented financial markets that generate endogenous UIP deviations, the first-best allocation is achieved through a combination of interest rate policy and foreign exchange...