ypical debt sustainability metrics characterize Kenya's sovereign debt as "unsustainable" since around 2019. Further, the data show that, over time, commercial banks' private sector lending has declined while lending to the government has grown. Given these observations, this study examines...

This paper introduces the African Debt Database (ADD) - a new, comprehensive dataset that traces both domestic and external debt instruments at a granular level. The main innovation is a detailed mapping of Africa's domestic debt markets, drawing on rich, new data extracted from government...

Britain's debt was nil in 1688 and 60% of GDP in 1717. From 1717 to 1722 the debt was restructured, including through the South Sea operation of 1720. I discuss the reasons for the restructuring and the tensions it revealed between taxpayers and creditors. The South Sea bubble turned the...

Public debt has increased steadily over the years, leaving many countries at risk of debt distress and even pushing some to default. This paper analyses the impact of sovereign default on post-default debtto-GDP ratios in 144 countries from 1980 to 2019. Applying the entropy balancing method, we...

Leveraging a unique dataset that combines country-level information on debt restructuring with firm-level data from theWorld Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) spanning from 2004 to 2023, we analyze the effects of debt restructuring on firm sales growth. Using recent advancements in...

Egypt has experienced a sharp rise in external debt over the past decade, increasing from USD 55.8 billion in 2015 to over USD 165.3 billion by 2023. Despite maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio within internationally accepted thresholds (approximately 45% in 2023), the country faces mounting...

This paper provides a primer on the role of debt modelling in developing a sovereign debt issuance strategy, and how the policy objectives of a sovereign debt manager influence design decisions within their models. The insights provided here are supported by current and past uses of the Canadian...

How can the euro area's return to fiscal sustainability be organised in view of soaring debt levels and the sovereign debt crisis? How can debts be financed efficiently, not least to prevent debt crises in weaker countries where high debt levels compounded by a hike in risk premiums on...

This paper assesses the exchange rate risk exposure of Tunisia's external public debt portfolio using the delta-normal Value at Risk (VaR) approach. Based on daily data from 2004 to 2019, focusing on the main borrowing currencies (the euro, US dollar, and Japanese yen), the study identifies the...

Research background: This study explores the impact of inflation targeting on external debt in lowincome countries, filling a gap in understanding its effects on debt management in these countries. Purpose: Our research aims to determine whether the adoption of inflation targeting can lead to a...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation with New Zealand discusses that tight monetary policy has helped bring inflation back to target after a prolonged period of elevated price pressures, but at the expense of growth. A nascent recovery is underway as monetary policy is easing again. House prices...

This paper highlights the First Review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The SMP takes into account Haiti's fragility and capacity constraints, linked to security. Haiti faces a multidimensional crisis with a challenging outlook which is highly uncertain. The country is affected by both...

This paper presents Republic of Kosovo's Fourth reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Kosovo's economic performance continues to be strong. In 2024, growth was 4.4 percent, driven by household consumption, supported by strong...

This paper presents Pakistan's First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF). The IMF Executive Board completed the first...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that Costa Rica has achieved remarkable economic progress due to its very strong fundamentals, policies, and policy frameworks. Such factors are expected to support robust growth going forward notwithstanding external headwinds. The economic outlook is...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that following the post-pandemic rebound, St. Kitts and Nevis' economy is facing challenges. Real gross domestic product growth moderated to 1.5 percent in 2024, reflecting lower contributions from tourism and government services, while inflation eased...

This paper presents Mali's Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Request for a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). Mali's economy faces climate shocks amid security and humanitarian crisis, and tight financing. Recent flooding damaged infrastructure and agriculture,...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation highlights that Guyana's economy has grown rapidly over the past two decades, progressing from low-middle-income to high-income status-the only Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative participant to achieve this milestone. Oil production is fast ramping...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that economic growth in North Macedonia is gaining momentum in an environment of increased uncertainty. A credible fiscal strategy is essential to rebuilding buffers, reducing debt and ensuring compliance with fiscal rules. This is key to maintaining...

This paper presents People's Republic of China's Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) report. The FSSA found that since the last FSAP in 2017, the authorities have made notable progress in strengthening financial supervision and regulation, continuously implementing international...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that following a slowdown in 2023, growth accelerated, and inflation picked up in Azerbaijan. The decline in oil and gas prices reduced the 2024 external surplus, but fiscal consolidation resumed. Looking ahead, growth is projected to moderate and...

This paper presents Suriname's Ninth Review Under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. The objectives of the program have been broadly achieved. The economy is growing,...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation highlights that Antigua and Barbuda's post-pandemic economic expansion is continuing. Real output is estimated to have surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with growth estimated at 4.3 percent, driven by strong tourism and one-off events. The recovery in...

This paper highlights Argentina's Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. Building on the authorities' strong track record, the arrangement supports the transition to a new phase of their stabilization and growth plan to entrench macroeconomic stability, strengthen...

This paper presents Morocco's Request for an Arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. The Moroccan economy has shown sustained track record of implementing very strong policies and remarkable resilience to recent shocks, although a succession...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Andorra economy continues to be resilient and to grow above its long-term potential. Growth in 2024 surprised on the upside at 2.1 percent, driven by the service, banking and construction sectors. Early fiscal reform is paramount. Pension...

This paper presents Côte d'Ivoire's 2024 Article IV Consultation, Third Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of a Quantitative Performance Criterion, and Second Review under the...

This paper focuses Morocco's 2025 Article IV Consultation and Third Review under the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The Moroccan economy continued to show resilience despite another year of drought, with real gross domestic product growth projected to slow modestly...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that Greece's near-term economic outlook remains favorable, establishing a solid foundation to address remaining crisis legacies and structural imbalances necessary for achieving sustainable growth in the medium to long term. The right policy mix and...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation highlights that after three decades of near-zero inflation, signs are growing that Japan's economy is reaching a new equilibrium with inflation sustained at the Bank of Japan's two percent headline inflation target. However, Japan continues to face challenges,...

This paper presents Burkina Faso's Second Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review. Burkina Faso's performance under the program has been satisfactory. The authorities met all quantitative performance criteria, all indicative targets but one,...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation with Sweden discusses that with inflation successfully brought under control, adopting a more supportive macroeconomic monetary and fiscal policy mix and the focus on productivity are appropriate. High uncertainty and a more challenging external backdrop are...

Legislative elections in January 2025 widened the ruling party's majority. Economic activity softened during 2024, but with signs of year-end recovery that have continued in the first months of 2025. Real GDP growth in 2024 is estimated at 3.3 percent. Inflation has been persistent, averaging 5...

The authorities' implementation of the home-grown economic recovery and transformation (BERT 2022) plan and ambitious climate agenda has remained strong, supported by the IMF's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangements. Economic activity was...

Economic momentum remains strong, and inflation is slowly coming down. Despite strong revenue collection efforts, fiscal performance in 2024 was weaker than anticipated due to unbudgeted spending pressures and faster execution of foreign financed capital projects. The foreign exchange market...

The summer 2024 uprising has significantly disrupted the IMF-supported program, necessitating a recalibration. Massive protests led to the ousting of the previous government, the formation of an interim cabinet, and the replacement of Bangladesh Bank's Governor. While some stability has...

The continued political division and widespread fragilities have hindered the authorities' capacity to control public expenditure and enact necessary reforms. Unless spending is contained, the fiscal and external accounts would remain under pressure. Given the heavy dependence on oil exports and...