Wars fueled by resource wealth pose complex challenges for conflict resolution. I combine data on conflict events, rebel resource dependence, world market prices, and ceasefire details to investigate how fluctuations in rebel funding affect the likelihood of ceasefires. Increased funding...

There are at least three existential challenges to contemporary societies, as we know them namely first, the complete rupture of the social pact which characterized Glorious Decades after WWII in most of Western societies; and second, the deepening of the patterns of informatization and...

In a post land reformenvironment, violence and redistribution are substitutes for an opportunistic incumbent attempting industrialization. We setup a theoretical model to explore this relationship for individual and group level violence across two types of policy driven post...

We assess how one of the largest public works programmes in the world-Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)-affected violent conflict and civil unrest. Using difference-in-differences methods and linking administrative and geocoded conflict event data, we find that the PSNP did not...

Violent conflicts act as disincentives for sustainable socioeconomic development in conflict-prone societies, especially in the Global South. Existing studies focus largely on economic, political, and social triggers of violent conflicts; cultural factors, while important, are often not...

Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) significantly impact women and girls, exacerbating gender-based violence and limiting access to rights and services due to weakened institutions. Positive changes can emerge from crises, providing opportunities to reshape social norms and empower women....

This study examines whether the adoption of the 'Burmese Way to Socialism' philosophy by Myanmar's military regime affected employment opportunities in non-agriculture sectors and created jobs equitably for the Burmese majority and other ethnic minorities. The econometric analyses of two...

This paper investigates whether social media access is associated with increased probability or intensity of ethnic conflict in Myanmar. In this context most people use mobile phones, and particularly the Facebook app, to access the internet. To distinguish the effects of social media from those...

Prevailing approaches to understanding Islamist mobilisation struggle to explain why militant Islamist movements in Libya initially spread rapidly after 2011 and then disappeared almost overnight. Their decline poses a puzzle for conventional analyses. Tactical choices, such as the search for...

We model a rent-seeking contest among two 'identity ideologues', differentially located along a uni-dimensional identity continuum, and a 'mercenary', who can choose any location in-between. The contest jointly awards an identity-relevant good ('religion') and an identity-irrelevant good...

This paper presents a framework for estimating and simulating a quantitative spatial model of trade and violence. In this new theoretical and empirical setup, designed for the analysis of bilateral flows, we first model the general equilibrium interactions between the economic and fighting...

Controversy is vital in the pursuit of knowledge. Constructive dispute can drive intellectual growth and deepen understanding within a field. However, mutual respect, thorough engagement, and intellectual humility are necessary for productive exchanges. In this vein, I clarify in my response to...

This study shows that civilians' behavior can be severely affected by territorial control by an insurgent group, and that these effects can persist after the government regains control and the occupation ends. I consider a framework of civilian behavior under insurgent rule, where civilians have...

Ensuring a safe environment for children to learn is more than a mission for the WorldBank. It is an urgent imperative. In large part, the success of our FCV Strategy is predicated on education. There are few spheres of development with so much potential to contribute to violence prevention and...

We model a rent-seeking contest among two "identity ideologues", differentially located along a uni-dimensional identity continuum, and a "mercenary", who can choose any location in-between. The contest jointly awards an identity-relevant good ("religion") and an identity-irrelevant good...

We propose a theory of protest dynamics with heterogeneous protest technology and intensity. The ability to mobilize online reduces the likelihood of coordination failures at both the extensive (engagement) and intensive (violence) margins. Social media can initially help launch massive...

We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the “defund the police” movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of...

We study a model in which two players with opposing interests try to alter a status quo through instability-generating actions. We show that instability can be used to secure longer-term durable changes, even if it is costly to generate and does not generate short-term gains. In equilibrium,...

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the wage polarization in Italy, combining individual characteristics with their task content in terms of physical proximity within the workplace. We use an innovative dataset which combines data from two sample surveys,...

It is widely accepted that episodes of social unrest, conflict, political tensions and policy uncertainty affect the economy. Nevertheless, the real-time dimension of such relationships is less studied, and it remains unclear how to incorporate them in a forecasting framework. This can be partly...

Driftet die Arbeitsgesellschaft immer mehr auseinander, ist ihr Zusammenhalt zunehmend gefährdet? Zentrale Befunde der soziologischen Arbeitsforschung wie »Entgrenzung«, »Prekarisierung« oder »Fragmentierung« legen dies nahe und weisen auf gesellschaftliche Fliehkräfte und Desintegration...

The energy transition increases the demand for minerals from ethnically diverse, conflict-prone developing countries. We study whether and where mining is possible in such countries without raising the risk of civil conflict. We proceed in three steps: First, we propose a theoretical model to...

This paper focuses on food riots that arise in the agrarian context characterized by food crises, primarily for the rural poor in developing and undeveloped countries located in Latin America for the current century. It is a preliminary study that investigates the connection between food riots...

Venezuela has suffered three economic catastrophes since independence: one each in the nineteenth, twentieth, and twenty-first centuries. Prominent explanations for this trilogy point to the interaction of class conflict and resource dependence. We turn attention to intra-class conflict, arguing...

Economic downturns can create conditions for conflict that may occur along religious or ethnic lines. In this paper, we provide arguably the first empirical evidence of this phenomenon in medieval India. Using centuries of geo-referenced data we document a positive relationship between weather...

We still have limited knowledge about the long-term effects of fascism on European democracies. European countries experienced cycles of violence between the 1960s and 1980s. Can such violence be explained by legacies of mobilization during fascism? We study whether and how the Italian fascist...

We take an evolutionary perspective to explore the implications of different relationships between power and initiation of conflicts (i.e., conflict initiation function) for the long-run distribution of power between groups. So far, attention has focused on how the role played by the...

We study the effects of state-owned enterprise (SOE) privatization on political distrust and social unrest in China. Exploiting variations in geography, time, and life-cycle stage induced by the influential 1998-2002 SOE reform and instrumental variable estimation, we document that working-age...

Indonesia has a long and ongoing history of conflict over land between mining and plantation corporations and communities claiming adat (customary) land rights. National law recognizes adat as a source of rights, but in a way that makes it nearly impossible to claim land based on adat rights....

The association between freedom of expression - freedom of speech and the freedom of the media - and social conflict is theoretically ambiguous and politically highly contested. On one side of the debate, people argue that freedom of speech and freedom of the media create social conflict by...

In recent migration research temporality has become a prominent figure. Focussing on temporality allows to shed light on some aspects of labour mobility that enlighten our understanding of work-related conflicts. Especially with view to labour market inclusion, migrants often experience the...