We propose a macro-finance model in which inflation, growth, and the policy rate are driven by unobservable long-run trends and transitory cycles that investors must infer from aggregate data. Their subjective estimates of these trends, and the uncertainty surrounding them, are priced into the...

Using 33 years of intraday Treasury data, we provide the first high-frequency evidence on auction-day price pressure: yields rise in the hours before auction and reverse afterward. This pressure strengthens when dealers face tighter risk-bearing constraints and weakens when investor demand is...

We study the spillovers of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) in the U.S. on financial intermediation in the euro area using bank-level supervisory data and high-frequency identified policy surprises. Our detailed panel data permit us to trace the impact of LSAPs through bank balance sheets. We...

We assess whether the Fed's asset purchases can be tailored to either restore market functioning or provide economic stimulus. When the communicated goal is restoring market functioning and purchases' implementation is flexible, flow effects are significant: relative price deviations narrow....

This paper examines whether the SEC's mandate for central clearing of U.S. Treasury repo transactions could enable all-to-all trading and support the development of a standardized term repo market. By mitigating counterparty risk through central clearing, cash lenders may become more willing to...

This SAFE White Paper presents a structured economic framework for assessing asset-backed stablecoins in their capacity as privately issued, fiscally anchored monetary instruments. Specifically, we evaluate the implications of stablecoins for financial intermediation, sovereign debt markets, and...

Multi-unit common value auctions in which bidders submit demand functions are used for a variety of purposes, including selling government debt (Treasury auctions) and allocating liquidity (repo auctions). Typically, either a discriminatory or a uniform-price format is used. In this paper, we...

This study investigates the demand for government securities by Kenyan banks using annual data from 2005 to 2022. Employing a fixed-effects panel regression model, the research examines the factors influencing banks' sovereign debt holdings and their implications for systemic risk. Key findings...

This research studies the impact of macroeconomic announcement surprises on daily U.S. Treasury excess returns during the heart of Alan Greenspan's tenure as Federal Reserve Chair, addressing the possible limitations of standard static regression (SSR) models, which may suffer from omitted...

The U.S. Treasury's recently introduced liquidity support buyback program offers a natural setting to evaluate whether providing a regular mechanism for selling less liquid off-the-run Treasury securities can enhance market liquidity. In this paper, I present a direct test of this mechanism and...

In response to rising global government debt, sovereign debt management offices (DMOs) are increasingly refining their issuance methods to optimize investor engagement and minimize borrowing costs. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of a two-stage Treasury auction design that incorporates a...

This paper studies how Treasury market dynamics depend on adjustments to the central bank balance sheet. We introduce a dynamic model of Treasury bonds with traditional and shadow banks. In the model, both Treasury and repo market disruptions arise as a joint consequence of three frictions: (i)...

Ranaldo and Rossi (2016) presented data on the history of Swiss treasury bond auctions that covered the period from 1980, when the auction mechanism was implemented, to 2014. In this study, we extend the set of observations until 2023 and provide additional information for the entire sample. In...

This study investigates the demand for government securities by Kenyan banks using annual data from 2005 to 2022. Employing a fixed-effects panel regression model, the research examines the factors influencing banks' sovereign debt holdings and their implications for systemic risk. Key findings...

This paper examines the transition from LIBOR to SOFR in the US and maps out the consequences for European corporate treasurers by showing how the application of SOFR in cash products and derivatives differs from LIBOR. As interest rate and cross-currency swaps transition to compounded SOFR,...

Using Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on sovereign bonds, we investigate whether US sovereign default risk is a greater driving factor of domestic interbank funding risk than domestic sovereign default risk across the five Libor counties including Canada and Australia. We use equivalent-country...

This article examines U.S. Treasury securities market functioning from the global financial crisis (GFC) through the Covid-19 pandemic given the ensuing market developments and associated policy responses. We describe the factors that have affected intermediaries, including regulatory changes,...

In this article, we study trading activity and liquidity of off-the-run U.S. Treasury securities. Off-the-run Treasuries are seasoned securities, account for about 98 percent of all Treasuries outstanding, and played a central role in the pandemic-fueled dash-for-cash in March 2020....

This paper studies how Treasury market dynamics depend on adjustments to the central bank balance sheet. We introduce a dynamic model of Treasury bonds with traditional and shadow banks. In the model, both Treasury and repo market disruptions arise as a joint consequence of three frictions: (i)...

I consider a long-term outlook for the U.S. economy. My thesis is that the U.S. has moved from a deflationary regime to an inflationary regime. The shift is associated with China's emergence as a bona fide geopolitical rival to the U.S. and what this geopolitical event implies for the supply and...

The premium on "on-the-run" Treasuries (i.e. the most recently issued ones) is an anomaly. I explain it using a model in which primary dealers hold inventories of Treasuries. Primary dealers are more likely to hold large inventories of on-the-run Treasuries. There is also less variation across...

We build on recent developments in the theory of money and liquidity to provide a qualitative and quantitative explanation for the well-known TIPS illiquidity vis-'a-vis non-inflation-protected Treasuries. Our model does not assume exogenous differences between the markets where the two assets...

Purpose - Having defined liquidity, the aim is to assess the predictive capacity of its representative variables, so that economic fluctuations may be better understood. Design/methodology/approach - Conceptual variables that are representative of liquidity will be used to formulate the...

Using confidential microdata, we show that shocks to primary dealers' risk-bearing constraints have significant effects on the US Treasury securities market. In response to tighter constraints, dealers reduce their Treasury positions, triggering a reduction in aggregate turnover and an increase...