We estimate the economic consequences of electricity blackout scenarios on the automotive industry and the Slovak economy. Our estimates of inoperability of the automotive sector range from 2.9 % to 4.2 % across regions on the first day of the blackout, while the overall inoperability of the...

This study investigates how strategic foresight can enhance FinTech governance and policy resilience in emerging economies, using Kuwait as an illustrative case. It aims to identify which foresight interventions should be prioritized across alternative futures to strengthen innovation, security,...

Die Chemieindustrie steht im Zentrum der sozial-ökologischen Transformation: Als größter industrieller Verbraucher von Mineralölen und Erdgas in Deutschland und damit bedeutender Verursacher von Emissionen ist sie in besonderem Maße gefordert, sich grundlegend zu verändern. Ohne eine...

Coastal zones are among the environments most threatened by climate change. Although various efforts for global mapping and classification of coastal social and ecological systems have been undertaken, the ability to analyse and describe the spatial heterogeneity and multidimensionality of these...

This paper explores the current state, trends, and possible futures of the telecommunication ecosystem in Italy, outlining strategies for development. We adopt a combined methodology, integrating participatory scenario building through the Nominal Group Technique with a structured literature...

The agricultural sector is a key driver of the Uruguayan economy, making it particularly vulnerable to hydrometeorological events. This paper assesses the impact of severe physical risk events - combining droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires - on the capital position of Uruguayan banks, using the...

Scenarios and pathways, as defined and used in the "SSP-RCP scenario framework", are key in last decade's climate change research and in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this framework, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) consist of a limited set of...

Digital money and digital payments innovations have the potential for improving cross-border payments by reducing costs, enhancing speed, and improving transparency. This note performs an empirical analysis of the potential impact of digital money on the volume and transaction costs of...

The Technical Assistance (TA) mission, conducted in Victoria, Seychelles, from May 2 to 17, 2023, assisted authorities with macroprudential stress testing and climate risk analysis. The stress testing focused on strengthening the solvency and liquidity frameworks: (i) for solvency, considering...

Various stakeholders are increasingly encouraging companies from the real economy to adopt measures facilitating their transition towards carbon neutrality. In this context, companies are expected to implement forward-looking strategies and climate-related reporting practices using scenario...

The watershed represents a holistic system whose poor understanding of its multiple subsystems can lead to a pronounced water scarcity. This study aims to develop an innovative technique for managing water resources within the Souss-Massa watershed. It uses the System Dynamics (SD) methodology...

Coal-based energy plays a vital role in powering the global economy, but generates substantial emissions of atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gases. Cost-effective solutions to mitigating these emissions are a global priority for sustainable development. Although numerous mitigation...

Asia's development trajectory has important implications for achieving the globally agreed climate goal of limiting global warming to well below 2○C. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change incorporated an ambitious effort to compile and compare thousands...

We review the design and communication of monetary policy strategies that take into account risks and uncertainty. A key element in a robust monetary strategy is the concept of risk management, which is the weighing of key risks when setting policy. When risks to the outlook are balanced, the...

The Scenar 2040 study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of two hypothetical scenarios related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the EU agricultural sector and its broader environment. The baseline (reference scenario) is calibrated to the 2023 EU Agricultural...

This paper provides an analysis of water heating within South Africa's residential energy demand. Using MAED, this work models four scenarios to examine the impact of varying degrees of governmental intervention and policy implementation, specifically SANS10400-XA2, on water heating energy...

Iran's energy sector is characterized by its significant reserves, market dynamics, economic challenges, and political and global impacts. This paper employs an integrated, scenario-based robust planning approach to address Iran's energy imbalance, which manifests as excess demand or...

We develop methodology to bridge scenario analysis and risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. The methodology, rooted in Bayesian analysis, addresses the fundamental challenge of reconciling judgmental narrative approaches with statistical forecasting....

In the midst of the global climate crisis, governments worldwide have implemented a range of emission policies aimed at en-couraging more production of the environmentally friendly vehicle. However, the exact impact of these policies on automakers'production portfolios and profitability remains...

Energy-related carbon emissions from the transportation sector are one of the major obstacles to achieving global carbon reduction targets. Current research on transportation energy mainly focuses on the energy end-use stage, with a lack of simulations covering both the front-end and end-use...

In October 2022, the European Commission ('the Commission') updated the common statistical classification of economic activities in the European Union (NACE). This took place by means of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/137 (the 'NACE Rev. 2.1 Delegated Act'), which established NACE...

Over the past few decades, there has been significant development in actions aimed at global energy transition, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The energy sector plays a significant role in this endeavor, contributing 76% of the world's total emissions. Considering...