Given data on a scalar random variable 𝑌, a prediction set for 𝑌 with miscoverage level 𝛼 is a set of values for 𝑌 that contains a randomly drawn 𝑌 with probability 1 - 𝛼, where 𝛼 ∈ (0, 1). Among all prediction sets that satisfy this coverage property, the oracle...

A literacy-targeted approach to economic instruction draws on insights from cognitive science. It highlights that students process complex economic information by constructing and modifying schemas that represent economic material. Following this approach, we developed a set of instructional...

Aimed at pandemic preparedness, we construct a framework for integrated epi‐econ assessment that we believe would be useful for policymakers, especially at the early stages of a pandemic outbreak. We offer theory, calibration to micro‐, macro‐, and epi‐data, and numerical methods for...

Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two...

We develop a simple two-period principal-agent model in which a present-biased government, the agent, chooses public investment levels given a deficit rule imposed by the principal. The principal sets a deficit cap to curb current debt-financed consumption. In doing so, it also reduces long-term...

Given data on a scalar random variable 𝑌, a prediction set for 𝑌 with miscoverage level 𝛼 is a set of values for 𝑌 that contains a randomly drawn 𝑌 with probability 1 − 𝛼, where 𝛼 ∈ (0, 1). Among all prediction sets that satisfy this coverage property, the oracle...

As part of the green transition, the European cap-and-trade scheme for CO2 emissions will be extended to cover consumer durables. We propose a New Keynesian model that features both, "brown" and "green" durable goods and show that if monetary policy follows a business-as-usual approach, the...

We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation....

This paper investigates the long-run nexus between wealth inequality and aggregate output using a DSGE model in which wealth inequality endogenously affects individual entrepreneurship incentives, thereby influencing aggregate output. Our model passes the indirect inference test against the UK...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

We develop a quantitative macroeconomic framework with heterogeneous financial intermediaries and active liquidity management. In the model, banks manage uninsured, idiosyncratic deposit withdrawal risk through an iterative over-the-counter interbank market with endogenous intensive and...

This report estimates the "social rate of time preference" (SRTP) for New Zealand public policy appraisal using a Ramsey equation. It uses the Weitzman (1998) method to derive a declining discount rate schedule of 2% (real) for years 1-30, 1.5% for years 31-100, and 1% for years 101 on. The...

Dávila and Goldstein (2023) examine the optimal determination of deposit insurance in the case where bank runs are possible. They provide a small set of sufficient statistics to determine welfare impacts of changes in deposit insurance coverage, and apply their framework using US data from...

This study explores the pivotal role of theories of economics in shaping the multifaceted concept of sustainable development and integrates economic, social, and environmental dimensions. It traces the intellectual trajectory of classical, neoclassical, and contemporary economic paradigms,...

This paper identifies the salient features of feedforward control and the advantages that it provides vis-à-vis feedback control. These advantages are especially salient in strategic control situations and also during periods of environmental turbulence and extreme strategic discontinuity....

Most social problems are "wicked", meaning that they are highly complex, intractable, open-ended, and multi-dimensional. In wicked learning environments, information is ambiguous, feedback may be slow, or causes and effects are difficult to ascertain. Using the insights from the Bloomington...

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are a specialized class of deep neural networks tailored for processing high-dimensional data, excelling in tasks like image classification, object detection, and facial recognition. Their architecture is built on convolutional layers interspersed with...