Despite rising refugee numbers worldwide, refugees' return decisions remain poorly understood. Prior work examines either intentions or realized return, but not both. We fielded a ten-wave panel of Ukrainian refugees, linking prewar home municipalities to geocoded conflict and territorial...

Seit Russland 2022 seinen vollumfänglichen Aggressionskrieg gegen die Ukraine begonnen hat, verfolgt die EU ihre Erweiterungspolitik unter geopolitischen Vorzeichen. Wie es bei der Europäischen Kommission und bei Kandidatenstaaten inzwischen heißt, könnte die EU ab 2028 neue Mitglieder...

This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road...

This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road...

Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use...

The Pax Americana, which guaranteed the security of Germany and Europe after the Second World War, is coming to an end. Europe can no longer rely on its alliance and partnership with the United States. Even before Donald Trump’s second presidency, Europe was seeking to reduce its dependency on...

· This brief provides a big-picture overview of support for Ukraine after four years of war. The key finding from 2025 is that Europe has almost offset the collapse in US support. · US aid fell by 99 percent. At the same time, Europe sharply increased its aid allocations, by 59 percent for...

Seit Russland 2022 seinen vollumfänglichen Aggressionskrieg gegen die Ukraine begonnen hat, verfolgt die EU ihre Erweiterungspolitik unter geopolitischen Vorzeichen. Wie es bei der Europäischen Kommission und bei Kandidatenstaaten inzwischen heißt, könnte die EU ab 2028 neue Mitglieder...

This study examines the effects of the russia's full-scale invasion on the Ukrainian corporate labor market. We use the DID technique to analyze a panel data set of over 100,000 firms linked to geolocation and industry data spanning 2021-2024 and show how war harms the corporate labor market in...

Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use...

NATO enlargement and Russian annexation of Crimea marked crucial turning points. According to one narrative, the Russian occupation was part of a plan to re-establish dominion over Eastern Europe. According to a rival view, it was an attempt to counter a U.S. plan to subjugate Russia. I...

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has triggered profound structural changes in the country's economy, reshaping patterns of foreign trade, foreign direct investment and sectoral specialisation. This paper analyses the shifts in Ukraine's trade and investment structures...

The acquisition of Greenland has repeatedly been a topic of discussion within US government circles since the 19th century. That is because of the island’s strategic loca­tion and its resources. In the summer of 2019, US President Donald Trump made his first bid to purchase Greenland from the...

Russia’s war in Ukraine continues unabated, despite international efforts to broker a peace settlement. Nearly four years of full-scale war have taken a staggering social, humanitarian, and economic toll, with real GDP in 2025 estimated at about 20 percent below pre-war levels. The authorities...

This Technical Assistance followed a request by the National Bank of Ukraine for a review of their existing Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) and Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). Although the NBU had an established FPAS, which benefited from previous IMF TA, the existing model-based...

Employment gaps between refugees and natives are well documented, yet the role of trauma-related mental health in shaping these gaps remains underexplored, partly because most data sources lack measures of symptoms early after arrival. We assess probable PTSD shortly after displacement in an...

This study provides an assessment of Ukraine’s transport workforce and skills landscape during a period of profound change. As maritime and air routes remain suspended, road freight, road passenger, and urban public transport have become the backbone of domestic and international mobility, and...

The Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) Health Survey in Ukraine is intended to provide policy-relevant evidence to enable governments, citizens, and other stakeholders to identify successes and bottlenecks in health service delivery, monitor progress over time, and make cross-country comparisons....

· This brief provides a big-picture overview of support for Ukraine after four years of war. The key finding from 2025 is that Europe has almost offset the collapse in US support. · US aid fell by 99 percent. At the same time, Europe sharply increased its aid allocations, by 59 percent for...

We elicit reservation wage premia for relocating to two Ukrainian cities, using a household survey conducted in mid-April to mid-July 2024 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: high-risk Kharkiv (near the frontline) and moderate-risk Kyiv. Risk tolerance is a strong predictor of willingness to...

Objective: The article aims to explore the impact of trade openness on the economic development of Ukrainian regions in different conditions, with a particular focus on the global financial crisis (2007-2009) and the 'hybrid' stage of the war (2014-2021). Research Design & Methods: We analysed...

Objective: The article aims to analyse the key determinants of multiple dimensions of economic integration among Ukrainians in Poland, including employment status, job quality, skill matching, job satisfaction, and perceived financial situation, with a comparison between forced and economic...

Since Russia launched its full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine in 2022, the European Union (EU) has pursued its enlargement policy as part of a geopolitical approach. According to the European Commission and candidate states, the EU could admit new members from 2028 onwards, while...

A series of scandals in Ukraine has shown that Russia's war of aggression has not put an end to corruption in the country. Although Ukraine's specialised institutions play an important role in combating corruption, the country's governance model does not yet meet the requirements of the rule of...

A series of scandals in Ukraine has shown that Russia’s war of aggression has not put an end to corruption in the country. Although Ukraine’s specialised institutions play an important role in combating corruption, the country’s governance model does not yet meet the requirements of the...

Since Russia launched its full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine in 2022, the European Union (EU) has pursued its enlargement policy as part of a geopolitical approach. According to the European Commission and candidate states, the EU could admit new members from 2028 onwards, while...

This article analyzes the cases of relocation of three Ukrainian universities within Zaporizhzhia Oblast following the onset of the full-scale war. Drawing on thematic analysis of interviews with university leadership, the study highlights how spatial decisions, local support networks,...

The purpose of this paper is to examine hidden ESG as a practice–visibility configuration in which enterprises implement substantive sustainability activities but remain weakly visible in formal, publicly legible ESG disclosure. Focusing on Ukrainian agriculture under conditions of...

Agricultural land markets are critical for structural transformation but may, as farm sizes increase, also be affected by operators exercising market power. To explore this little-studied issue, this paper uses administrative data for agricultural land lease transactions from 2021 to 2024 in...

This paper formalizes the geopolitical externality of climate policy and estimates its plausible magnitudes. Specifically, domestic reductions in fossil fuel demand depress global prices, thereby lowering export revenues for resource-rich autocracies - many of which allocate substantial...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

Die Ukraine hindert Russland seit drei Jahren daran, seinen völkerrechtswidrigen Angriffskrieg siegreich zu beenden. Über lange Phasen des Krieges befanden sich die Konfliktparteien in einem militärischen und diplomatischen Patt. Nun hat US-Präsident Donald Trump sich mit dem Aggressor...

Europa muss in der Lage sein, sich gegen Russland zu verteidigen, mit oder ohne die Vereinigten Staaten. Im Folgenden geben wir erste Schätzungen der zusätzlichen Ausrüstung und Truppen ab, die Europa unter der Annahme eines tatsächlichen Rückzugs der USA aus Europa für seine Verteidigung...

Hintergrund der Studie und Datengrundlage: - Die russische Invasion der Ukraine hat seit dem 24. Februar 2022 eine massive Fluchtbewegung ausgelöst, bei der überwiegend Frauen und Kinder in europäische Länder, einschließlich Deutschland, geflüchtet sind. Rund eine Million Menschen aus der...

The research in this discussion paper explores the significant role of feminist perspectives and actions in fostering sustainable gender-transformative changes within Ukraine, particularly during the ongoing defence against Russian aggression. It highlights the ability of feminist movements to...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

A study conducted by the European Parliamentary Research Service (2023) notes that the European Union's (EU) relations with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries are being affected by changes in global power, economic uncertainty, and security threats. The current working paper...

With the Green Deal, the European Union (EU) has not only significantly increased the ambition of its climate policy in recent years, but it has also added an international dimension to European domestic climate policy. In fact, numerous recently adopted legal acts directly or indirectly affect...

Driven by both political camps in Seoul, relations between South Korea and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have deepened significantly since their initiation in 2005. While this intensified relationship was shaped to a large extent by geopolitical developments and increasing...