Funke, Schularick, and Trebesch (2023) investigate the impact of populist leaders on GDP growth in 60 countries. They build an original dataset identifying populist presidents and prime ministers from 1900 to 2020. They then examine changes in countries' GDP growth rates following a populist...

In contrast with findings in climate science, economists often treat losses from natural disasters as statistically independent of one another. To better incorporate scientific insights into economic research, we introduce a methodology to identify spatial and temporal clusters in datasets on...

Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has been under an EU sanctions regime. While these sanctions have not prevented Putin from ordering an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, in the overall picture, they have significantly weakened Russia's ability to wage war. This paper...

Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has been under an EU sanctions regime. While these sanctions have not prevented Putin from ordering an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, in the overall picture, they have significantly weakened Russia’s ability to wage war. This paper...

Die Pandemie und der Krieg in der Ukraine gehen mit hohen wirtschaftlichen Einbußen einher. Würden diese beiden unheilvollen Ereignisse das Wirtschaftsleben nicht beeinträchtigen, dann wäre die Wertschöpfung in Deutschland in den Jahren 2020 bis 2022 um insgesamt 420 Milliarden Euro höher...

Um die Erderwärmung auf möglichst 1,5 Grad zu begrenzen und eine Anpassung an die unvermeidlichen Folgen des Klimawandels zu ermöglichen, bedarf es tiefgreifender Transformationen auf wirtschaftlicher, gesellschaftlicher, kultureller, technologischer und institutioneller Ebene. Um die...

Deutschland wurde in der nahen Vergangenheit von zahlreichen Extremwetterereignissen getroffen: Die Flusshochwasser an der Elbe 2002 und 2013 sowie an der Donau 2013, die Hitzewellen in den Jahren 2018, 2019 und 2022 verbunden mit Dürre sowie der Starkregen und die Sturzfluten im Jahr 2021 im...

Die Pandemie und der Krieg in der Ukraine gehen mit hohen wirtschaftlichen Einbußen einher. Würden diese beiden unheilvollen Ereignisse das Wirtschaftsleben nicht beeinträchtigen, dann wäre die Wertschöpfung in Deutschland in den Jahren 2020 bis 2022 um insgesamt 420 Milliarden Euro höher...

In order to estimate the post-earthquake losses in Mainland China, this paper develops a set of economic loss estimation models for Mainland China based on fixed asset data and the damaging information compiled in the Mainland China composite damaging earthquake catalog (MCCDE-CAT). Considering...

Exceptionally high rainfall in the Indian state of Kerala caused major flooding in 2018. This paper estimates the short-run causal impact of the disaster on the economy, using a difference-in-difference approach. Monthly nighttime light intensity, a proxy for aggregate economic activity,...

Das Jahr 2020 war geprägt von der COVID-19-Pandemie und ihren wirtschaftlichen Folgen. In Deutschland stiegen staatliches Defizit sowie die Schuldenquote infolge des Rückgangs der Wirtschaftsleistung auf geschätzt 5 % bzw. 75 % des BIP an. Um die wirtschaftliche Erholung von der Pandemie...

The recent literature on the determinants of populism has highlighted the role of long-term trends of progressive isolation and prolonged economic stagnation in engendering discontent and, in turn, demand for political change. We investigate, instead, the potential of unanticipated local shocks...

This paper reviews the key economic issues concerning the welfare costs of inflation and deflation, with a view to shedding light on the desirable properties of the inflation process. Our review of the evidence on the overall costs of inflation and deflation indicates that such costs could be...

The standard loss function counts both positive and negative deviations from the output and inflation targets as losses. But if the sample period is long enough, then output growth in excess of the target, and often also inflation rates that are below target, should be counted as gains instead...

The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (TRIA) established a public-private program to cover commercial enterprises against foreign terrorism on US soil. It was a temporary measure to increase the availability of risk coverage for terrorist acts by requiring insurers to provide coverage....

Desde 2020, el mundo vio multiplicadas a gran velocidad sus necesidades de financiamiento ante los efectos de una crisis sistémica, considerada como la peor crisis global desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial: la desatada por la pandemia del COVID-19. Adicionalmente, los flujos de financiamiento de...

Loss and damage due to climate change have significant consequence poses threat to community, infrastructure, total well-being and Environment. The frequency and intensity of Hydro-Meteorological disasters, such as floods can have substantial impacts on public health, and indirectly lead to a...

Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25% of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new cross-country database identifying 50 populist presidents and prime ministers 1900-2018. We find that the economic...

We develop a multi-risk SIR model (MR-SIR) where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups-in particular between the "young", "the middleaged" and the "old". Our MR-SIR model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy similar to those already developed in...

We develop a multi-risk SIR model (MR-SIR) where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups-in particular between the "young", "the middleaged" and the "old". Our MR-SIR model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy similar to those already developed in...

Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25% of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new cross-country database identifying 50 populist presidents and prime ministers 1900-2018. We find that the economic...

Sea-level rise and ensuing permanent coastal inundation will cause spatial shifts in population and economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a highly spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy that accounts for the dynamics of migration, trade, and innovation, this paper...