Search Results - subject_exact:"Wirtschaftsindikator"

International comparison program : 2021 cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean : methodological document and main results

De Camino, Claudia; Infante, Lady Viviana - 2026

Comparison of economies is essential for public policymaking but considerably hindered by the fact that statistics expressed in local currencies are not directly comparable. Market exchange rates give a distorted view, as they do not reflect the differences in price levels between countries.To...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617258

Approach to estimating confidence intervals for a business cycle

Martinez-Rivera, Wilmer; Hernandez-Bejarano, Manuel Dario - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617579

A predictive analytics approach for forecasting global stock index returns using deep learning techniques

Hu, Liang; Shen, Yinru - 2026

Accurately predicting stock index returns remains a critical yet complex task due to the inherent volatility of financial markets and the intricate temporal dependencies within financial time series. This study presents a robust machine learning framework to forecast the relative returns of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654339

Smog, not lights : tracking Bolivia's 2024-2026 recession from space

Hernani-Limarino, Werner; Eid, Ahmed - 2026

Nighttime lights are the standard satellite proxy for economic activity, but they fail to detect recessions. On a 2020-2024 panel of nine Bolivian departments, VIIRS lights match the sign of PIB growth 78 percent of the time during expansions but only 39 percent during contractions - worse than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654701

Forecasting Kazakhstan's GDP based on a dynamic factor model with regularization

Akhmet, Alisher - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609234

System of non-financial performance indicators in the manufacturing sector

Subačienė, Rasa; Arbidane, Iluta; Mietule, Iveta; … - 2026

The growing demand for transparency in sustainability reporting has compelled enterprises to look far beyond the boundaries of classical financial ratios when assessing their own performance. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indicators have dominated recent academic debate-primarily...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611755

Macroeconomic determinants of unemployment in Kazakhstan : an ARDL approach

Kakizhanova, Tolkyn; Kabylkairatkyzy, Ryszhan; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614116

The credit gap as a real-time early warning indicator of financial imbalances : a South African perspective

Msiska, Wongani; Sikhosana, Ayanda; Vermeulen, Cobus - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615329

Using subjective well-being as a headline indicator in dashboards to track human progress

Burger, Martijn J.; Courchesne, Sarah; Greyling, Talita; … - 2026

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has long been used as a proxy for human progress, despite growing recognition of its limitations. Recently, numerous "beyond GDP" initiatives have emerged, promoting multidimensional dashboards to assess quality of life. However, these often lack a clear headline...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615393

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Using subjective well-being as a headline indicator in dashboards to track human progress

Burger, Martijn J.; Courchesne, Sarah; Greyling, Talita; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Looser, tighter, clearer : a new Financial Conditions Index for the euro area

Bletzinger, Tilman; Martorana, Giulia; Mistak, Jakub - 2026

Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) are a widely used tool for assessing the broader monetary policy stance beyond the central bank's direct control. This paper presents a novel vector autoregressive (VAR) model that includes key macroeconomic variables and maps financial variables into a single...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606834

Macroeconomic indicators and market index interactions in the United States : an empirical analysis

Ahmad Monir Abdullah; Syahidah Hanis Meor Rithuan; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620142

Can the Sahm rule indicator signal recession in OECD countries?

Miyahara, Takashi - 2026

Labour market indicators are widely used to identify recessions, with the Sahm rule – based on changes in unemployment rate – valued for its simplicity and timeliness in the United States. Its effectiveness elsewhere, however, remains uncertain. This study examines whether the Sahm rule can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015629646

The OECD.AI Index

2026

The OECD.AI Index provides governments with a robust framework to measure national AI capabilities and track progress in implementing the OECD AI Recommendation. Using a composite measurement framework, the Index combines existing AI-specific indicators from the OECD.AI Policy Observatory with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015630421

A new core inflation indicator for Kazakhstan

Tolepbergen, Alisher - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638666

A comparative analysis of macroeconomic divergences between Nordic and Anglo-Saxon economies

Nicolae, Florin-Laurențiu; Macari, Adelina; Lazăr, … - 2026

This paper analyses the macroeconomic differences between the Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland) and the Anglo-Saxon countries (USA, UK, Canada, and Australia), focusing on the evolution of GDP, the policy rate, and inflation. Furthermore, financial market performance was...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639907

Erkennen von Expansionsphasen mit der IW-Konjunkturampel

Grömling, Michael; Wirths, Benjamin Paul - 2026 - Stand: Mai 2026

Die IW-Konjunkturampel wurde im Jahr 2015 entwickelt, um die Vielzahl von teilweise heterogenen Konjunkturinformationen systematisch zu bündeln und in einem aussagekräftigen Gesamtbild darzustellen. Mit diesem Verfahren werden für Deutschland, die USA, China, das Vereinigte Königreich und...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640802

Index of the cycle of money : the case of Cyprus

Challoumis, Constantinos; Eriotis, Nikolaos; Vasiliou, … - 2026

This research aims to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary circulation in Cyprus by applying the Index of the Cycle of Money, derived from the Theory of the Cycle of Money. The analysis focuses exclusively on the Cypriot economy over the period of 2012-2017, a timeframe marked by severe...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643079

Mapping provincial heterogeneity in the Philippines : a cluster analysis of climate and macroeconomic indicators

Miral, Ramona Maria L.; Rivera, John Paolo R. - 2026

We examine provincial heterogeneity in the Philippines by integrating climate, macroeconomic, and fiscal indicators within a unified framework. Moving beyond regression-based approaches, it applies k-means clustering to identify natural groupings of provinces based on combined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643971

Sustainable development goals : indicators for Norway : statistical annex to the Norwegian voluntary national review 2026

2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650727

News-based inflation expectations : LLM-assisted measurement and forecasting

Tanisa Tawichsri; Suppawong Tuarob; Nuwat Nookhwun; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650750

Do technical indicators enhance the predictability of the equity market risk premium? : evidence from Korea

Lee, Hyunah; Chun, Sungju - 2026

Prior empirical studies suggest that technical indicators may contain information useful for predicting the equity market risk premium and may complement forecasting models based on macroeconomic variables. This paper examines the predictive power of technical indicators in conjunction with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652076

Geringer CO₂-Fußabdruck bei Krediten, jedoch hoher CO₂-Fußabdruck bei Wertpapieren österreichischer Banken

Zhan, Jun Chao - 2026

Banken finanzieren den Übergang zur Klimaneutralität durch Kredite und Wertpapierinvestitionen. Dabei sind sie selbst indirekt Risiken ausgesetzt, wenn ihre Geschäftspartner es nicht schaffen, ihre CO2-Emissionen zu senken. Die jährlich von der EZB veröffentlichten "Carbon Emission...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652270

Economic trends in the Western Balkans, Moldova, Türkiye, Ukraine and Russia : economic resilience tested by geopolitical and structural challenges

Hildebrandt, Antje; Beckmann, Elisabeth; Lahnsteiner, … - 2026

Overall economic activity in non‑EU countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) has remained resilient, although most economies recorded slower growth in 2025 compared with the previous year. Looking ahead, new challenges are emerging for 2026. The war in the Middle East is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652275

From data to impact : measuring progress through disaggregated SDG indicators

2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637320

Forecasting inflation : the sum of the cycles outperforms the whole

Verona, Fabio - 2026

Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of inflation for forecasting. SOC decomposes inflation into cyclical components,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015560827

An extended score-driven dynamic factor model : constructing composite indices in turbulent times

Artemova, Mariia; Dijk, Dick van; Vladimirov, Evgenii - 2026

We propose an extended score-driven (ESD) dynamic factor model (DFM) that can accommodate non-Gaussian innovations, nonlinear factor dynamics, and timevarying volatility. The main novelty of our model is a state equation that includes both lagged and contemporaneous scores, implying that factors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667751

Optimal text-based time-series indices

Ardia, David; Bluteau, Keven - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667961

A composite financial conditions index for Türkiye : construction, dynamics, and policy implications

Pestere-Akcay, Müge; Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek - 2026

This study investigates how financial conditions influence inflation dynamics in Türkiye through distinct transmission channels and how these effects vary across CPI sub-expenditure groups. Using principal component analysis, we construct new financial conditions indices from quarterly data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668292

IMD Latin America and Caribbean prosperity rating 2026

2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670194

Economy-wide capacity utilisation rate : methodological framework and application to Swiss data

Bachmann, Andreas; Steiner, Elizabeth - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672524

Methodiek arbeidsmarktprognoses en -indicatoren 2025-2030

Meijer, Roy; Dijksman, Sander; Bakens, Jessie - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546779

Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real time?

Keijsers, Bart; Dijk, Dick van - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015440646

Identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden

Karlsson, Sune; Mazur, Stepan; Raftab, Mariya - 2025

This paper focuses on identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden. We analyze 35 monthly indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2023. Additionally, we evaluate the group-wise performance of these indicators. The analysis is conducted using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015207182

Integrating macroeconomic and technical indicators into forecasting the stock market : a data-driven approach

Latif, Saima; Aslam, Faheem; Ferreira, Paulo; Iqbal, Sohail - 2025

Forecasting stock markets is challenging due to the influence of various internal and external factors compounded by the effects of globalization. This study introduces a data-driven approach to forecast S&P 500 returns by incorporating macroeconomic indicators including gold and oil prices, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015207282

Monetary and fiscal policies in Brazil and the behavioral approach

Freitas, Raphael José Pereira - 2025

Purpose This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372631

Economic freedom in the land of enchantment

Mitchell, Matthew D.; Gessing, Paul - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373021

New forecasting methods for an old problem : predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises

Plessis, Emile du; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373950

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New forecasting methods for an old problem : predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises

Plessis, Emile du; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Long-term forecasting of maritime economics index using time-series decomposition and two-stage attention

Kim, Dohee; Lee, Eunju; Kamal, Imam Mustafa; Bae, Hyerim - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374006

Global risk aversion : driving force of future real economic activity

Kim, Marco Jinhwan; Cho, Hoon; Ryu, Doojin - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374079

A panel data analysis of effects of economic vulnerability index indicators on real effective exchange rate in developing countries

Sezerer, Kerem; Arslan, Burak - 2025

The volatility of exchange rates is considered to be an important measure of a country's economic vulnerability and has a direct or indirect causal relationship with a large number of macroeconomic variables. The aim of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic variables in the economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375479

Does the tail of finance wag the dog of the real economy? : dynamic connectedness of the stock market and business confidence

Tita, Anthanasius Fomum; French, Joseph J.; Gurdgiev, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330577

Financial conditions and economic activity : the case of Türkiye

Ergül, Özgür; Günay, Mahmut - 2025

This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the effects of changes in financial conditions on the economy of Türkiye, for which financial conditions indices were constructed. To examine possible changes in the relationship between financial conditions and the real economy due to the unique...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015334522

The dynamic volatility nexus of blue-green economy, cryptocurrency and gold indices during uncertain times

Loukil, Sahar; Zulfiqar, Noshaba; Papadas, Dimıtrios; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015339852

Monitoring business cycle fluctuations in Asia

Pundit, Madhavi; Ramayandi, Arief; Simba, Patrick Jaime A. - 2025

Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations-commonly represented by movements in the output gap-help policymakers make informed decisions on the appropriate course of action. Unfortunately, business cycle assessments often suffer from lags in actual gross domestic product data releases. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015191532

Sustainable urban water management index for developing countries : a case study in Puebla City, Mexico

Gutiérrez-Nava, Jaime Adriano; Otazo-Sánchez, Elena María - 2025

Several indicator and index frameworks have been reported to assess management efficiency and promote transparency, facilitating decision-making and innovation. However, they cannot be applied in cities with limited information, making them impractical. This study proposes a Sustainable Urban...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359111

Proxy datasets for measuring GDP in Uganda

Mugume, Adam; Isingoma, Milly Nalukwago; Musoke, Samuel … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015417869

Constructing a financial conditions index for Zambia

Musonda, Gabriel; Mwananshiku, Christabel; Wakumelo, Mataa - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015417917

Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved?

Mitchell, James; Shiroff, Taylor - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015467256

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Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved?

Mitchell, James; Shiroff, Taylor - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Predicting economic activity using atmospheric NO2 satellite data : evidence from local economic indicators in Japan

Zhuang, Meiyi; Naitō, Hisahiro - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015418432

Short-term forecasting of slovak GDP based on high-frequency data

Lőrincze, Péter - 2025

The paper compares two forecasts of Slovak GDP, the first with high-frequency data and the second without them. We utilize the last observation from the economic activity index acting as a short-term GDP forecast. We use data from 2000 to 2024 in weekly frequencies and have 27 variables related...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015418703